LOST CREEK BLVD 78735
| Owner | HOLDEN HILLS LP |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0107300103 |
| Short ID | 974984 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | D1 Acreage — Qualified Open-Space Land (1-d-1) |
| Valuation | Productivity |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 1,437,664 SF |
| Acres | 33.004 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | BARTON CREEK SEC K, L & O PHS 1 BLK H LOT 1 (1-D-1W) |
| Neighborhood | N6030 |
| Land | $2,422,021 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $2,422,021 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $2,422,021 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $2,422,021 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$2,418,673 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $3,348 |
| Taxable Value | $3,348 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +409.9% from $475,000 (2023) to $2,422,021 (2025), a CAGR of 125.8% over 2 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2025→2026), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Agricultural parcel countywide rose +32.7%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader agricultural market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 6 taxing entities is 2.3355% in 2025 (+0.0103% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $78. Austin ISD is the largest single contributor, at 39.6% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($3,348) is $2,418,673 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Agricultural. Agricultural valuation may be subject to rollback taxes if land use changes.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($2,422,021 land vs $0 improvements), about $2/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $2,422,021, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Agricultural property in Travis County — county median $561,432 (P25 $179,824 / P75 $1,355,511, n=7,602). Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +116.9% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2022–2026 preliminary trend, projected forward from 2026), the model projects market value near $232,308,601 by 2031, with an estimated annual tax burden around $4,910,898. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IAU Austin ISD | 1.0617% | 0.9966% | 0.8595% | 0.9505% | 0.9252% | -0.0253% | $30.98 | $30.98 | Paid |
| U5D Travis County MUD # 09 | 0.8120% | 0.7970% | 0.7825% | 0.7680% | 0.7540% | -0.0140% | $25.24 | $25.24 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $12.58 | $12.58 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $3.95 | $3.95 | Paid |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1048% | 0.0987% | 0.0986% | 0.1013% | 0.1034% | +0.0021% | $3.46 | $3.46 | Paid |
| E03 Travis County ESD # 03 | 0.0650% | 0.0450% | 0.0400% | 0.0530% | 0.0590% | +0.0060% | $1.98 | $1.98 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 2.5127% | 2.3542% | 2.1859% | 2.3252% | 2.3355% | +0.0103% | $78.19 | $78.19 | Paid |
| Entity | Tax Rate | Amount Due | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| IAU Austin ISD | 0.9252% | $30.98 | 39.6% |
| U5D Travis County MUD # 09 | 0.7540% | $25.24 | 32.3% |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3758% | $12.58 | 16.1% |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1180% | $3.95 | 5.1% |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1034% | $3.46 | 4.4% |
| E03 Travis County ESD # 03 | 0.0590% | $1.98 | 2.5% |
| Total | 2.3355% | $78.19 | 100.0% |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $4,844,043 | $2,422,021 | +100.0% |
| Assessed Value | $3,500 | $3,348 | +4.5% |
| Land Value | $4,844,043 | $2,422,021 | +100.0% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $3,500 | $3,348 | +4.5% |
| HS Cap Loss | -$4,840,543 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$82
Estimated
|
~$78
Partial
|
|
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Pre | $4,844,043 | $4,844,043 | — | −$4,840,543 | $3,500 | $3,500 | Not yet — post-cert | Preliminary |
| 2025 | $2,422,021 | $2,422,021 | — | −$2,418,673 | $3,348 | $3,348 | ~$78 | Partial |
| 2024 | $1,838,480 | $3,676,960 | — | −$1,835,489 | $2,991 | $2,991 | $14,166 | Verified |
| 2023 | $475,000 | $950,000 | — | −$471,859 | $3,141 | $3,141 | $1,918 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +100.0% ! | +4.5% | 0.1% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +31.7% | +11.9% | 0.1% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +287.0% ! | -4.8% | 0.2% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2023 | base year | — | 0.7% | No billing data | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +409.9% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | +100.0% | +139.6% | +116.9% | +287.0% | 2024 | +31.7% | 2025 |
| Assessment Ratio | 0.1% | 0.3% | — | 0.7% | 2023 | 0.1% | 2025 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.0000% | 0.0000% | — | 0.0000% | 2025 | 0.0000% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$78 | $5,388 | ~$1,812,702 | $14,166 | 2024 | $78 | 2025 |
Market value changed by 287% in 2024, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ~$10,504,598 | ~$10,504,598 | ~2.2912% | ~$240,678 | +116.9% |
| 2028 | ~$22,779,853 | ~$22,779,853 | ~2.2469% | ~$511,832 | +370.3% |
| 2029 | ~$49,399,479 | ~$49,399,479 | ~2.2026% | ~$1,088,053 | +919.8% |
| 2030 | ~$107,125,739 | ~$107,125,739 | ~2.1583% | ~$2,312,049 | +2111.5% |
| 2031 | ~$232,308,601 | ~$232,308,601 | ~2.1140% | ~$4,910,898 | +4695.8% |
| 2027 | ~$10,407,717 | ~$10,407,717 | ~2.3355% | ~$243,069 | +114.9% |
| 2028 | ~$22,361,606 | ~$22,361,606 | ~2.3355% | ~$522,248 | +361.6% |
| 2029 | ~$48,045,255 | ~$48,045,255 | ~2.3355% | ~$1,122,082 | +891.8% |
| 2030 | ~$103,228,117 | ~$103,228,117 | ~2.3355% | ~$2,410,860 | +2031.0% |
| 2031 | ~$221,791,811 | ~$221,791,811 | ~2.3355% | ~$5,179,877 | +4478.7% |
| 2027 | ~$10,601,479 | ~$10,601,479 | ~2.2690% | ~$240,549 | +118.9% |
| 2028 | ~$23,201,974 | ~$23,201,974 | ~2.2026% | ~$511,037 | +379.0% |
| 2029 | ~$50,778,915 | ~$50,778,915 | ~2.1361% | ~$1,084,691 | +948.3% |
| 2030 | ~$111,132,706 | ~$111,132,706 | ~2.0697% | ~$2,300,060 | +2194.2% |
| 2031 | ~$243,220,604 | ~$243,220,604 | ~2.0032% | ~$4,872,189 | +4921.0% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $2,422,021 places it in the top 25% for Agricultural properties in Travis County (7602 comparable) — 4× the county median of $561,432. Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $2,422,021 | $179,824 | $561,432 | $1,355,511 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2024 | $1,838,480 | $193,498 | $574,650 | $1,361,070 | ↑ Top 25% | +23.7% |
| 2023 | $475,000 | $150,007 | $423,072 | $1,000,412 | ↑ Above median | +0.0% |
| Source | What it provides | Coverage for this parcel | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCAD Certified Appraisal Roll ↗ | Market, assessed, and taxable value; land/improvement split; exemptions | 2025 | Certified |
| Texas Comptroller Annual Jurisdiction Roll (AJR) | Prior-year market and taxable value | 2023–2024 | Verified |
| TCAD Preliminary Export ↗ | First-look 2026 appraisal value, subject to change at certification | 2026 (exported June 9, 2026; certifies July 25, 2026) | Preliminary |
| Travis County Rates History ↗ | Adopted tax rate for each of this parcel's taxing entities | 1990–2025 | Verified |
| TaxCurOpenData | Current-year (2025) tax billing, by taxing entity | 2025 | Partial |
| PIR bulk billing export | Prior-year tax billing, Travis County Tax Office | 2023, 2024 | Verified |
| Satellite imagery (Esri World Imagery) | Aerial view of the parcel | Located by geocoding this parcel's address — may not resolve for every address | — |