5813 HORIZON VISTA WAY 78738
| Owner | SAWFORD COLIN EDWIN REVOCABLE TRUST |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0123860415 |
| Short ID | 953102 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | 01 Single-Family Residence |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 35,332 SF |
| Acres | 0.811 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | LOT 15 BLK A MADRONE CANYON |
| Neighborhood | P5180 |
| Land | $561,300 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $561,300 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $375,000 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $375,000 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) | — |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $375,000 |
| Taxable Value | $375,000 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +95.2% from $192,125 (2022) to $375,000 (2025), a CAGR of 25.0% over 3 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2025→2026), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Land/Vacant parcel countywide rose +53.5%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader land/vacant market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 5 taxing entities is 2.6240% in 2025 (+0.0184% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $9,840. Lake Travis ISD is the largest single contributor, at 39.6% of the total 2025 levy.
Asset Class: Land / Vacant. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 150% of market value ($561,300 land vs $0 improvements), about $16/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $375,000, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Land/Vacant property in Travis County — county median $84,423 (P25 $24,862 / P75 $362,804, n=35,611). Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +84.1% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2026 preliminary trend, projected forward from 2026), the model projects market value near $46,716,877 by 2031, with an estimated annual tax burden around $85,512. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILT Lake Travis ISD | 1.2301% | 1.2121% | 1.0741% | 1.0656% | 1.0397% | -0.0259% | $3,898.88 | $3,898.88 | Paid |
| U5L Lazy Nine MUD #1A | 1.0000% | 1.0000% | 1.0000% | 1.0000% | 1.0000% | +0.0000% | $3,750.00 | $3,750.00 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $1,409.42 | $1,409.42 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $442.59 | $442.59 | Paid |
| E06 Travis County ESD # 06 | 0.1000% | 0.0867% | 0.0831% | 0.0876% | 0.0904% | +0.0028% | $339.00 | $339.00 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 2.7993% | 2.7157% | 2.5625% | 2.6056% | 2.6240% | +0.0184% | $9,839.89 | $9,839.89 | Paid |
| Entity | Tax Rate | Amount Due | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILT Lake Travis ISD | 1.0397% | $3,898.88 | 39.6% |
| U5L Lazy Nine MUD #1A | 1.0000% | $3,750.00 | 38.1% |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3758% | $1,409.42 | 14.3% |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1180% | $442.59 | 4.5% |
| E06 Travis County ESD # 06 | 0.0904% | $339.00 | 3.4% |
| Total | 2.6240% | $9,839.89 | 100.0% |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $2,207,900 | $375,000 | +488.8% |
| Assessed Value | $2,207,900 | $375,000 | +488.8% |
| Land Value | $306,658 | $561,300 | -45.4% |
| Improvement Value | $1,901,242 | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $2,207,900 | $375,000 | +488.8% |
| Exemptions | HS | None | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$57,935
Estimated
|
~$9,840
Partial
|
|
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Pre | $2,207,900 | $306,658 | $1,901,242 | — | $2,207,900 | $2,207,900 | Not yet — post-cert | Preliminary |
| 2025 | $375,000 | $561,300 | — | — | $375,000 | $375,000 | ~$9,840 | Partial |
| 2024 | $384,250 | $561,300 | — | — | $384,250 | $384,250 | $10,012 | Verified |
| 2023 | $384,250 | $527,215 | — | — | $384,250 | $384,250 | $9,847 | Verified |
| 2022 | $192,125 | $225,000 | — | — | $192,125 | $192,125 | $5,218 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +488.8% ! | +488.8% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | -2.4% | -2.4% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2023 | +100.0% ! | +100.0% | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2022 | base year | — | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +95.2% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | +488.8% | +146.6% | +84.1% | +488.8% | 2026 | -2.4% | 2025 |
| Assessment Ratio | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | 100.0% | 2022 | 100.0% | 2022 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 2.6200% | 2.6200% | — | 2.6200% | 2025 | 2.6200% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$9,840 | $8,729 | ~$73,667 | $10,012 | 2024 | $5,218 | 2022 |
Market value changed by 100% in 2023, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ~$4,065,166 | ~$2,428,690 | ~2.5801% | ~$62,664 | +84.1% |
| 2028 | ~$7,484,748 | ~$2,671,559 | ~2.5363% | ~$67,759 | +239.0% |
| 2029 | ~$13,780,851 | ~$2,938,715 | ~2.4925% | ~$73,247 | +524.2% |
| 2030 | ~$25,373,181 | ~$3,232,586 | ~2.4487% | ~$79,155 | +1049.2% |
| 2031 | ~$46,716,877 | ~$3,555,845 | ~2.4048% | ~$85,512 | +2015.9% |
| 2027 | ~$4,021,008 | ~$2,428,690 | ~2.6240% | ~$63,728 | +82.1% |
| 2028 | ~$7,323,024 | ~$2,671,559 | ~2.6240% | ~$70,101 | +231.7% |
| 2029 | ~$13,336,627 | ~$2,938,715 | ~2.6240% | ~$77,111 | +504.0% |
| 2030 | ~$24,288,547 | ~$3,232,586 | ~2.6240% | ~$84,822 | +1000.1% |
| 2031 | ~$44,234,086 | ~$3,555,845 | ~2.6240% | ~$93,304 | +1903.4% |
| 2027 | ~$4,109,324 | ~$2,428,690 | ~2.5582% | ~$62,131 | +86.1% |
| 2028 | ~$7,648,237 | ~$2,671,559 | ~2.4925% | ~$66,588 | +246.4% |
| 2029 | ~$14,234,832 | ~$2,938,715 | ~2.4267% | ~$71,315 | +544.7% |
| 2030 | ~$26,493,743 | ~$3,232,586 | ~2.3610% | ~$76,321 | +1100.0% |
| 2031 | ~$49,309,920 | ~$3,555,845 | ~2.2953% | ~$81,616 | +2133.3% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $375,000 places it in the top 25% for Land/Vacant properties in Travis County (35611 comparable) — 4× the county median of $84,423. Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $375,000 | $24,862 | $84,423 | $362,804 | ↑ Top 25% | +2.1% |
| 2024 | $384,250 | $23,000 | $66,000 | $328,966 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2023 | $384,250 | $24,692 | $71,500 | $270,000 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2022 | $192,125 | $15,000 | $55,000 | $180,000 | ↑ Top 25% | +100.0% |
| Source | What it provides | Coverage for this parcel | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCAD Certified Appraisal Roll ↗ | Market, assessed, and taxable value; land/improvement split; exemptions | 2025 | Certified |
| Texas Comptroller Annual Jurisdiction Roll (AJR) | Prior-year market and taxable value | 2022–2024 | Verified |
| TCAD Preliminary Export ↗ | First-look 2026 appraisal value, subject to change at certification | 2026 (exported June 9, 2026; certifies July 25, 2026) | Preliminary |
| Travis County Rates History ↗ | Adopted tax rate for each of this parcel's taxing entities | 1990–2025 | Verified |
| TaxCurOpenData | Current-year (2025) tax billing, by taxing entity | 2025 | Partial |
| PIR bulk billing export | Prior-year tax billing, Travis County Tax Office | 2022, 2023, 2024 | Verified |
| Satellite imagery (Esri World Imagery) | Aerial view of the parcel | Located by geocoding this parcel's address — may not resolve for every address | — |