FLINT ROCK RD TX 78738
| Owner | ELLIS JORGE ROBERTO & |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0127780306 |
| Short ID | 803140 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | D1 Acreage — Qualified Open-Space Land (1-d-1) |
| Valuation | Productivity |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 2,640,302 SF |
| Acres | 60.613 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | ABS 821 SUR 78 WALDRON C W ACR 60.6130 (1-D-1) |
| Neighborhood | R3014 |
| Land | $3,295,732 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $3,295,732 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $3,295,732 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $3,295,732 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$3,289,517 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $6,215 |
| Taxable Value | $6,215 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +72.5% from $1,910,178 (2021) to $3,295,732 (2025), a CAGR of 14.6% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2023→2024), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Agricultural parcel countywide rose +96.0%, so this parcel has lagged the broader agricultural market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 7 taxing entities is 2.1146% in 2025 (+0.0599% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $131. Lake Travis ISD is the largest single contributor, at 49.2% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($6,215) is $3,289,517 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Agricultural. Agricultural valuation may be subject to rollback taxes if land use changes.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($3,295,732 land vs $0 improvements), about $1/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $3,295,732, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Agricultural property in Travis County — county median $561,432 (P25 $179,824 / P75 $1,355,511, n=7,602). Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +14.7% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2022–2026 preliminary trend, projected forward from 2026), the model projects market value near $6,541,167 by 2031, with an estimated annual tax burden around $118,846. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILT Lake Travis ISD | 1.2301% | 1.2121% | 1.0741% | 1.0656% | 1.0397% | -0.0259% | $64.62 | $64.62 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $23.36 | $23.36 | Paid |
| WFR WCID # 17 (Flintrock Ranch Estates) | 0.3422% | 0.3422% | 0.2580% | 0.2360% | 0.2650% | +0.0290% | $16.47 | $16.47 | Paid |
| CLW City of Lakeway | 0.1545% | 0.1290% | 0.1440% | 0.1598% | 0.1696% | +0.0098% | $10.54 | $10.54 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $7.34 | $7.34 | Paid |
| E06 Travis County ESD # 06 | 0.1000% | 0.0867% | 0.0831% | 0.0876% | 0.0904% | +0.0028% | $5.62 | $5.62 | Paid |
| W17 WCID # 17 | 0.0568% | 0.0543% | 0.0533% | 0.0533% | 0.0560% | +0.0027% | $3.48 | $3.48 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 2.3528% | 2.2412% | 2.0178% | 2.0547% | 2.1146% | +0.0599% | $131.43 | $131.43 | Paid |
| Entity | Tax Rate | Amount Due | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILT Lake Travis ISD | 1.0397% | $64.62 | 49.2% |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3758% | $23.36 | 17.8% |
| WFR WCID # 17 (Flintrock Ranch Estates) | 0.2650% | $16.47 | 12.5% |
| CLW City of Lakeway | 0.1696% | $10.54 | 8.0% |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1180% | $7.34 | 5.6% |
| E06 Travis County ESD # 06 | 0.0904% | $5.62 | 4.3% |
| W17 WCID # 17 | 0.0560% | $3.48 | 2.6% |
| Total | 2.1146% | $131.43 | 100.0% |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $3,295,732 | $3,295,732 | +0.0% |
| Assessed Value | $6,500 | $6,215 | +4.6% |
| Land Value | $3,295,732 | $3,295,732 | +0.0% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $6,500 | $6,215 | +4.6% |
| HS Cap Loss | -$3,289,232 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$137
Estimated
|
~$131
Partial
|
|
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Pre | $3,295,732 | $3,295,732 | — | −$3,289,232 | $6,500 | $6,500 | Not yet — post-cert | Preliminary |
| 2025 | $3,295,732 | $3,295,732 | — | −$3,289,517 | $6,215 | $6,215 | ~$131 | Partial |
| 2024 | $4,335,874 | $4,335,874 | — | −$4,330,161 | $5,713 | $5,713 | $117 | Verified |
| 2023 | $1,904,536 | $1,904,536 | — | −$1,898,779 | $5,757 | $5,757 | $116 | Verified |
| 2022 | $1,904,536 | $1,904,536 | — | −$1,899,051 | $5,485 | $5,485 | $123 | Verified |
| 2021 | $1,910,178 | $1,910,178 | — | — | $1,910,178 | $1,910,178 | $123 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +0.0% | +4.6% | 0.2% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | -24.0% | +8.8% | 0.2% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +127.7% ! | -0.8% | 0.1% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | +5.0% | 0.3% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2022 | -0.3% | -99.7% | 0.3% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +72.5% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | +0.0% | +20.7% | +14.7% | +127.7% | 2024 | -24.0% | 2025 |
| Assessment Ratio | 0.2% | 16.8% | — | 100.0% | 2021 | 0.1% | 2024 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.0000% | 0.0000% | — | 0.0000% | 2025 | 0.0000% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$131 | $122 | ~$97,265 | $131 | 2025 | $116 | 2023 |
Market value changed by 128% in 2024, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ~$3,780,007 | ~$3,780,007 | ~2.0551% | ~$77,682 | +14.7% |
| 2028 | ~$4,335,441 | ~$4,335,441 | ~1.9955% | ~$86,515 | +31.5% |
| 2029 | ~$4,972,490 | ~$4,972,490 | ~1.9360% | ~$96,266 | +50.9% |
| 2030 | ~$5,703,147 | ~$5,703,147 | ~1.8764% | ~$107,016 | +73.0% |
| 2031 | ~$6,541,167 | ~$6,541,167 | ~1.8169% | ~$118,846 | +98.5% |
| 2027 | ~$3,714,092 | ~$3,714,092 | ~2.1146% | ~$78,538 | +12.7% |
| 2028 | ~$4,185,559 | ~$4,185,559 | ~2.1146% | ~$88,508 | +27.0% |
| 2029 | ~$4,716,873 | ~$4,716,873 | ~2.1146% | ~$99,743 | +43.1% |
| 2030 | ~$5,315,633 | ~$5,315,633 | ~2.1146% | ~$112,405 | +61.3% |
| 2031 | ~$5,990,399 | ~$5,990,399 | ~2.1146% | ~$126,673 | +81.8% |
| 2027 | ~$3,845,921 | ~$3,845,921 | ~2.0253% | ~$77,891 | +16.7% |
| 2028 | ~$4,487,959 | ~$4,487,959 | ~1.9360% | ~$86,886 | +36.2% |
| 2029 | ~$5,237,179 | ~$5,237,179 | ~1.8467% | ~$96,713 | +58.9% |
| 2030 | ~$6,111,473 | ~$6,111,473 | ~1.7573% | ~$107,400 | +85.4% |
| 2031 | ~$7,131,722 | ~$7,131,722 | ~1.6680% | ~$118,960 | +116.4% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $3,295,732 places it in the top 25% for Agricultural properties in Travis County (7602 comparable) — 6× the county median of $561,432. Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $3,295,732 | $179,824 | $561,432 | $1,355,511 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2024 | $4,335,874 | $193,498 | $574,650 | $1,361,070 | ↑ Top 25% | +23.7% |
| 2023 | $1,904,536 | $150,007 | $423,072 | $1,000,412 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2022 | $1,904,536 | $166,375 | $416,994 | $932,726 | ↑ Top 25% | +46.1% |
| 2021 | $1,910,178 | $105,498 | $286,444 | $607,111 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
| Source | What it provides | Coverage for this parcel | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCAD Certified Appraisal Roll ↗ | Market, assessed, and taxable value; land/improvement split; exemptions | 2025 | Certified |
| Texas Comptroller Annual Jurisdiction Roll (AJR) | Prior-year market and taxable value | 2021–2024 | Verified |
| TCAD Preliminary Export ↗ | First-look 2026 appraisal value, subject to change at certification | 2026 (exported June 9, 2026; certifies July 25, 2026) | Preliminary |
| Travis County Rates History ↗ | Adopted tax rate for each of this parcel's taxing entities | 1990–2025 | Verified |
| TaxCurOpenData | Current-year (2025) tax billing, by taxing entity | 2025 | Partial |
| PIR bulk billing export | Prior-year tax billing, Travis County Tax Office | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | Verified |
| Satellite imagery (Esri World Imagery) | Aerial view of the parcel | Located by geocoding this parcel's address — may not resolve for every address | — |