LOCKWOOD RD TX 78653
| Owner | NINE HIDDEN LAKE LTD |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0218700117 |
| Short ID | 789707 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | D1 Acreage — Qualified Open-Space Land (1-d-1) |
| Valuation | Productivity |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 14,630,052 SF |
| Acres | 335.860 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | ABS 438 SUR 35 JENNINGS G C ACR 121.6120 (1-D-1) |
| Neighborhood | _RGN307 |
| Land | $11,715,083 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $11,715,083 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $11,715,083 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $11,715,083 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$11,679,519 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $35,564 |
| Taxable Value | $35,564 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +1349.5% from $808,224 (2021) to $11,715,083 (2025), a CAGR of 95.1% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2024→2025), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Agricultural parcel countywide rose +96.0%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader agricultural market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 5 taxing entities is 1.7787% in 2025 (+0.0436% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $633. Manor ISD is the largest single contributor, at 60.8% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($35,564) is $11,679,519 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Agricultural. Agricultural valuation may be subject to rollback taxes if land use changes.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($11,715,083 land vs $0 improvements), about $1/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $11,715,083, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Agricultural property in Travis County — county median $561,432 (P25 $179,824 / P75 $1,355,511, n=7,602). Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +69.7% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2022–2026 preliminary trend, projected forward from 2026), the model projects market value near $141,630,843 by 2031, with an estimated annual tax burden around $2,081,307. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMA Manor ISD | 1.3520% | 1.3520% | 1.0861% | 1.0814% | 1.0814% | +0.0000% | $384.59 | $384.59 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $133.67 | $133.67 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $41.97 | $41.97 | Paid |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1048% | 0.0987% | 0.0986% | 0.1013% | 0.1034% | +0.0021% | $36.77 | $36.77 | Paid |
| E12 Travis County ESD # 12 | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.0982% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | +0.0000% | $35.56 | $35.56 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 2.0260% | 1.9676% | 1.6882% | 1.7351% | 1.7787% | +0.0436% | $632.56 | $632.56 | Paid |
| Entity | Tax Rate | Amount Due | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| IMA Manor ISD | 1.0814% | $384.59 | 60.8% |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3758% | $133.67 | 21.1% |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1180% | $41.97 | 6.6% |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1034% | $36.77 | 5.8% |
| E12 Travis County ESD # 12 | 0.1000% | $35.56 | 5.6% |
| Total | 1.7787% | $632.56 | 100.0% |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $10,075,794 | $11,715,083 | -14.0% |
| Assessed Value | $35,806 | $35,564 | +0.7% |
| Land Value | $10,075,794 | $11,715,083 | -14.0% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $35,806 | $35,564 | +0.7% |
| HS Cap Loss | -$10,039,988 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$637
Estimated
|
~$633
Partial
|
|
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Pre | $10,075,794 | $10,075,794 | — | −$10,039,988 | $35,806 | $35,806 | Not yet — post-cert | Preliminary |
| 2025 | $11,715,083 | $11,715,083 | — | −$11,679,519 | $35,564 | $35,564 | ~$633 | Partial |
| 2024 | $4,255,092 | $4,255,092 | — | −$4,242,382 | $12,710 | $12,710 | $221 | Verified |
| 2023 | $1,216,120 | $1,216,120 | — | −$1,203,341 | $12,779 | $12,779 | $216 | Verified |
| 2022 | $1,216,120 | $1,216,120 | — | −$1,202,874 | $13,246 | $13,246 | $261 | Verified |
| 2021 | $808,224 | — | — | −$794,988 | $13,236 | $13,236 | $268 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -14.0% | +0.7% | 0.4% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +175.3% ! | +179.8% | 0.3% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +249.9% ! | -0.5% | 0.3% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | -3.5% | 1.0% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2022 | +50.5% | +0.1% | 1.1% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | 1.6% | No billing data | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +1349.5% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -14.0% | +92.3% | +69.7% | +249.9% | 2024 | -14.0% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 0.4% | 0.8% | — | 1.6% | 2021 | 0.3% | 2024 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.0100% | 0.0100% | — | 0.0100% | 2025 | 0.0100% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$633 | $320 | ~$983,416 | $633 | 2025 | $216 | 2023 |
Market value changed by 250% in 2024, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ~$17,094,444 | ~$17,094,444 | ~1.7168% | ~$293,484 | +69.7% |
| 2028 | ~$29,002,184 | ~$29,002,184 | ~1.6550% | ~$479,990 | +187.8% |
| 2029 | ~$49,204,681 | ~$49,204,681 | ~1.5932% | ~$783,921 | +388.3% |
| 2030 | ~$83,479,940 | ~$83,479,940 | ~1.5314% | ~$1,278,376 | +728.5% |
| 2031 | ~$141,630,843 | ~$141,630,843 | ~1.4695% | ~$2,081,307 | +1305.7% |
| 2027 | ~$16,892,929 | ~$16,892,929 | ~1.7787% | ~$300,469 | +67.7% |
| 2028 | ~$28,322,437 | ~$28,322,437 | ~1.7787% | ~$503,762 | +181.1% |
| 2029 | ~$47,484,982 | ~$47,484,982 | ~1.7787% | ~$844,600 | +371.3% |
| 2030 | ~$79,612,625 | ~$79,612,625 | ~1.7787% | ~$1,416,044 | +690.1% |
| 2031 | ~$133,477,361 | ~$133,477,361 | ~1.7787% | ~$2,374,119 | +1224.7% |
| 2027 | ~$17,295,960 | ~$17,295,960 | ~1.6859% | ~$291,597 | +71.7% |
| 2028 | ~$29,689,992 | ~$29,689,992 | ~1.5932% | ~$473,016 | +194.7% |
| 2029 | ~$50,965,406 | ~$50,965,406 | ~1.5004% | ~$764,707 | +405.8% |
| 2030 | ~$87,486,468 | ~$87,486,468 | ~1.4077% | ~$1,231,548 | +768.3% |
| 2031 | ~$150,177,990 | ~$150,177,990 | ~1.3150% | ~$1,974,780 | +1390.5% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $11,715,083 places it in the top 25% for Agricultural properties in Travis County (7602 comparable) — 21× the county median of $561,432. Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $11,715,083 | $179,824 | $561,432 | $1,355,511 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2024 | $4,255,092 | $193,498 | $574,650 | $1,361,070 | ↑ Top 25% | +23.7% |
| 2023 | $1,216,120 | $150,007 | $423,072 | $1,000,412 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2022 | $1,216,120 | $166,375 | $416,994 | $932,726 | ↑ Top 25% | +46.1% |
| 2021 | $808,224 | $105,498 | $286,444 | $607,111 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
| Source | What it provides | Coverage for this parcel | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCAD Certified Appraisal Roll ↗ | Market, assessed, and taxable value; land/improvement split; exemptions | 2025 | Certified |
| Texas Comptroller Annual Jurisdiction Roll (AJR) | Prior-year market and taxable value | 2021–2024 | Verified |
| TCAD Preliminary Export ↗ | First-look 2026 appraisal value, subject to change at certification | 2026 (exported June 9, 2026; certifies July 25, 2026) | Preliminary |
| Travis County Rates History ↗ | Adopted tax rate for each of this parcel's taxing entities | 1990–2025 | Verified |
| TaxCurOpenData | Current-year (2025) tax billing, by taxing entity | 2025 | Partial |
| PIR bulk billing export | Prior-year tax billing, Travis County Tax Office | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | Verified |
| Satellite imagery (Esri World Imagery) | Aerial view of the parcel | Located by geocoding this parcel's address — may not resolve for every address | — |