15902 GIESE LN TX 78653
| Owner | DOUGLAS CODY J & LEAH M |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0242900205 |
| Short ID | 248178 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | D1 Acreage — Qualified Open-Space Land (1-d-1) |
| Valuation | Productivity |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 4,922,280 SF |
| Acres | 113.000 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | ABS 456 SUR 64 KIMBRO L ACR 113.0 (1-D-1) |
| Neighborhood | _RGN320 |
| Land | $3,947,942 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $3,947,942 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $3,947,942 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $3,947,942 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$3,925,394 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $22,548 |
| Taxable Value | $22,548 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +426.6% from $749,756 (2021) to $3,947,942 (2025), a CAGR of 51.5% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2023→2024), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Agricultural parcel countywide rose +96.0%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader agricultural market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 4 taxing entities is 0.6973% in 2025 (+0.0436% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $157. Travis County is the largest single contributor, at 53.9% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($22,548) is $3,925,394 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Agricultural. Agricultural valuation may be subject to rollback taxes if land use changes.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($3,947,942 land vs $0 improvements), about $1/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $3,947,942, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Agricultural property in Travis County — county median $561,432 (P25 $179,824 / P75 $1,355,511, n=7,602). Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +31.6% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2022–2026 preliminary trend, projected forward from 2026), the model projects market value near $13,384,473 by 2031, with an estimated annual tax burden around $97,222. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $84.75 | $84.75 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $26.61 | $26.61 | Paid |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1048% | 0.0987% | 0.0986% | 0.1013% | 0.1034% | +0.0021% | $23.31 | $23.31 | Paid |
| E13 Travis County ESD # 13 | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | +0.0000% | $22.55 | $22.55 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 0.6740% | 0.6156% | 0.6039% | 0.6537% | 0.6973% | +0.0436% | $157.22 | $157.22 | Paid |
| Entity | Tax Rate | Amount Due | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCO Travis County | 0.3758% | $84.75 | 53.9% |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1180% | $26.61 | 16.9% |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1034% | $23.31 | 14.8% |
| E13 Travis County ESD # 13 | 0.1000% | $22.55 | 14.3% |
| Total | 0.6973% | $157.22 | 100.0% |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $3,390,000 | $3,947,942 | -14.1% |
| Assessed Value | $23,792 | $22,548 | +5.5% |
| Land Value | $3,390,000 | $3,947,942 | -14.1% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $23,792 | $22,548 | +5.5% |
| HS Cap Loss | -$3,366,208 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$166
Estimated
|
~$157
Partial
|
|
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Pre | $3,390,000 | $3,390,000 | — | −$3,366,208 | $23,792 | $23,792 | Not yet — post-cert | Preliminary |
| 2025 | $3,947,942 | $3,947,942 | — | −$3,925,394 | $22,548 | $22,548 | ~$157 | Partial |
| 2024 | $3,954,258 | $3,954,258 | — | −$3,934,913 | $19,345 | $19,345 | $126 | Verified |
| 2023 | $1,130,000 | $1,130,000 | — | −$1,110,716 | $19,284 | $19,284 | $116 | Verified |
| 2022 | $1,130,000 | $1,130,000 | — | −$1,111,694 | $18,306 | $18,306 | $113 | Verified |
| 2021 | $749,756 | — | — | −$731,197 | $18,559 | $18,559 | $125 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -14.1% | +5.5% | 0.7% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | -0.2% | +16.6% | 0.6% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +249.9% ! | +0.3% | 0.5% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | +5.3% | 1.7% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2022 | +50.7% | -1.4% | 1.6% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | 2.5% | No billing data | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +426.6% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -14.1% | +57.3% | +31.6% | +249.9% | 2024 | -14.1% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 0.7% | 1.3% | — | 2.5% | 2021 | 0.5% | 2024 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.0000% | 0.0000% | — | 0.0000% | 2025 | 0.0000% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$157 | $128 | ~$59,745 | $157 | 2025 | $113 | 2022 |
Market value changed by 250% in 2024, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ~$4,461,491 | ~$4,461,491 | ~0.7031% | ~$31,368 | +31.6% |
| 2028 | ~$5,871,652 | ~$5,871,652 | ~0.7089% | ~$41,625 | +73.2% |
| 2029 | ~$7,727,529 | ~$7,727,529 | ~0.7147% | ~$55,231 | +128.0% |
| 2030 | ~$10,170,000 | ~$10,170,000 | ~0.7206% | ~$73,281 | +200.0% |
| 2031 | ~$13,384,473 | ~$13,384,473 | ~0.7264% | ~$97,222 | +294.8% |
| 2027 | ~$4,393,691 | ~$4,393,691 | ~0.6973% | ~$30,636 | +29.6% |
| 2028 | ~$5,694,549 | ~$5,694,549 | ~0.6973% | ~$39,706 | +68.0% |
| 2029 | ~$7,380,556 | ~$7,380,556 | ~0.6973% | ~$51,462 | +117.7% |
| 2030 | ~$9,565,747 | ~$9,565,747 | ~0.6973% | ~$66,699 | +182.2% |
| 2031 | ~$12,397,917 | ~$12,397,917 | ~0.6973% | ~$86,447 | +265.7% |
| 2027 | ~$4,529,291 | ~$4,529,291 | ~0.7060% | ~$31,977 | +33.6% |
| 2028 | ~$6,051,468 | ~$6,051,468 | ~0.7147% | ~$43,252 | +78.5% |
| 2029 | ~$8,085,209 | ~$8,085,209 | ~0.7235% | ~$58,494 | +138.5% |
| 2030 | ~$10,802,438 | ~$10,802,438 | ~0.7322% | ~$79,096 | +218.7% |
| 2031 | ~$14,432,856 | ~$14,432,856 | ~0.7409% | ~$106,938 | +325.7% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $3,947,942 places it in the top 25% for Agricultural properties in Travis County (7602 comparable) — 7× the county median of $561,432. Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $3,947,942 | $179,824 | $561,432 | $1,355,511 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2024 | $3,954,258 | $193,498 | $574,650 | $1,361,070 | ↑ Top 25% | +23.7% |
| 2023 | $1,130,000 | $150,007 | $423,072 | $1,000,412 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2022 | $1,130,000 | $166,375 | $416,994 | $932,726 | ↑ Top 25% | +46.1% |
| 2021 | $749,756 | $105,498 | $286,444 | $607,111 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
| Source | What it provides | Coverage for this parcel | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCAD Certified Appraisal Roll ↗ | Market, assessed, and taxable value; land/improvement split; exemptions | 2025 | Certified |
| Texas Comptroller Annual Jurisdiction Roll (AJR) | Prior-year market and taxable value | 2021–2024 | Verified |
| TCAD Preliminary Export ↗ | First-look 2026 appraisal value, subject to change at certification | 2026 (exported June 9, 2026; certifies July 25, 2026) | Preliminary |
| Travis County Rates History ↗ | Adopted tax rate for each of this parcel's taxing entities | 1990–2025 | Verified |
| TaxCurOpenData | Current-year (2025) tax billing, by taxing entity | 2025 | Partial |
| PIR bulk billing export | Prior-year tax billing, Travis County Tax Office | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | Verified |
| Satellite imagery (Esri World Imagery) | Aerial view of the parcel | Located by geocoding this parcel's address — may not resolve for every address | — |