MANDA CARLSON RD TX
| Owner | HYATT RUTH OLSON |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0259900403 |
| Short ID | 264055 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | D1 Acreage — Qualified Open-Space Land (1-d-1) |
| Valuation | Productivity |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 4,356,000 SF |
| Acres | 100.000 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | ABS 353 SUR 26 HANN J W ACR 100.0 (1-D-1) |
| Neighborhood | _RGN320 |
| Land | $3,494,696 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $3,494,696 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $3,494,696 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $3,494,696 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$3,465,645 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $29,051 |
| Taxable Value | $29,051 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +419.2% from $673,072 (2021) to $3,494,696 (2025), a CAGR of 51.0% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2023→2024), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Agricultural parcel countywide rose +96.0%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader agricultural market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 4 taxing entities is 0.6900% in 2025 (+0.0424% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $200. Travis County is the largest single contributor, at 54.5% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($29,051) is $3,465,645 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Agricultural. Agricultural valuation may be subject to rollback taxes if land use changes.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($3,494,696 land vs $0 improvements), about $1/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $3,494,696, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Agricultural property in Travis County — county median $561,432 (P25 $179,824 / P75 $1,355,511, n=7,602). Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +31.6% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2022–2026 preliminary trend, projected forward from 2026), the model projects market value near $11,844,666 by 2031, with an estimated annual tax burden around $85,590. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $109.19 | $109.19 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $34.29 | $34.29 | Paid |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1048% | 0.0987% | 0.0986% | 0.1013% | 0.1034% | +0.0021% | $30.04 | $30.04 | Paid |
| E02 Travis County ESD # 02 | 0.0900% | 0.0800% | 0.0773% | 0.0939% | 0.0928% | -0.0011% | $26.95 | $26.95 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 0.6640% | 0.5956% | 0.5812% | 0.6476% | 0.6900% | +0.0424% | $200.47 | $200.47 | Paid |
| Entity | Tax Rate | Amount Due | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCO Travis County | 0.3758% | $109.19 | 54.5% |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1180% | $34.29 | 17.1% |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1034% | $30.04 | 15.0% |
| E02 Travis County ESD # 02 | 0.0928% | $26.95 | 13.4% |
| Total | 0.6900% | $200.47 | 100.0% |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $3,000,000 | $3,494,696 | -14.2% |
| Assessed Value | $29,778 | $29,051 | +2.5% |
| Land Value | $3,000,000 | $3,494,696 | -14.2% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $29,778 | $29,051 | +2.5% |
| HS Cap Loss | -$2,970,222 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$205
Estimated
|
~$200
Partial
|
|
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Pre | $3,000,000 | $3,000,000 | — | −$2,970,222 | $29,778 | $29,778 | Not yet — post-cert | Preliminary |
| 2025 | $3,494,696 | $3,494,696 | — | −$3,465,645 | $29,051 | $29,051 | ~$200 | Partial |
| 2024 | $3,500,000 | $3,500,000 | — | −$3,473,302 | $26,698 | $26,698 | $173 | Verified |
| 2023 | $1,000,000 | $1,000,000 | — | −$970,520 | $29,480 | $29,480 | $171 | Verified |
| 2022 | $1,000,000 | $1,000,000 | — | −$969,881 | $30,119 | $30,119 | $179 | Verified |
| 2021 | $673,072 | — | — | −$642,394 | $30,678 | $30,678 | $204 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -14.2% | +2.5% | 1.0% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | -0.2% | +8.8% | 0.8% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +250.0% ! | -9.4% | 0.8% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | -2.1% | 3.0% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2022 | +48.6% | -1.8% | 3.0% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | 4.6% | No billing data | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +419.2% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -14.2% | +56.8% | +31.6% | +250.0% | 2024 | -14.2% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 1.0% | 2.2% | — | 4.6% | 2021 | 0.8% | 2024 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.0100% | 0.0100% | — | 0.0100% | 2025 | 0.0100% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$200 | $186 | ~$52,519 | $204 | 2021 | $171 | 2023 |
Market value changed by 250% in 2024, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ~$3,948,222 | ~$3,948,222 | ~0.6965% | ~$27,501 | +31.6% |
| 2028 | ~$5,196,152 | ~$5,196,152 | ~0.7031% | ~$36,532 | +73.2% |
| 2029 | ~$6,838,521 | ~$6,838,521 | ~0.7096% | ~$48,524 | +128.0% |
| 2030 | ~$9,000,000 | ~$9,000,000 | ~0.7161% | ~$64,448 | +200.0% |
| 2031 | ~$11,844,666 | ~$11,844,666 | ~0.7226% | ~$85,590 | +294.8% |
| 2027 | ~$3,888,222 | ~$3,888,222 | ~0.6900% | ~$26,830 | +29.6% |
| 2028 | ~$5,039,424 | ~$5,039,424 | ~0.6900% | ~$34,774 | +68.0% |
| 2029 | ~$6,531,466 | ~$6,531,466 | ~0.6900% | ~$45,069 | +117.7% |
| 2030 | ~$8,465,263 | ~$8,465,263 | ~0.6900% | ~$58,413 | +182.2% |
| 2031 | ~$10,971,608 | ~$10,971,608 | ~0.6900% | ~$75,708 | +265.7% |
| 2027 | ~$4,008,222 | ~$4,008,222 | ~0.6998% | ~$28,050 | +33.6% |
| 2028 | ~$5,355,281 | ~$5,355,281 | ~0.7096% | ~$38,000 | +78.5% |
| 2029 | ~$7,155,052 | ~$7,155,052 | ~0.7193% | ~$51,469 | +138.5% |
| 2030 | ~$9,559,679 | ~$9,559,679 | ~0.7291% | ~$69,701 | +218.7% |
| 2031 | ~$12,772,439 | ~$12,772,439 | ~0.7389% | ~$94,374 | +325.7% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $3,494,696 places it in the top 25% for Agricultural properties in Travis County (7602 comparable) — 6× the county median of $561,432. Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $3,494,696 | $179,824 | $561,432 | $1,355,511 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2024 | $3,500,000 | $193,498 | $574,650 | $1,361,070 | ↑ Top 25% | +23.7% |
| 2023 | $1,000,000 | $150,007 | $423,072 | $1,000,412 | ↑ Above median | +0.0% |
| 2022 | $1,000,000 | $166,375 | $416,994 | $932,726 | ↑ Top 25% | +46.1% |
| 2021 | $673,072 | $105,498 | $286,444 | $607,111 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
| Source | What it provides | Coverage for this parcel | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCAD Certified Appraisal Roll ↗ | Market, assessed, and taxable value; land/improvement split; exemptions | 2025 | Certified |
| Texas Comptroller Annual Jurisdiction Roll (AJR) | Prior-year market and taxable value | 2021–2024 | Verified |
| TCAD Preliminary Export ↗ | First-look 2026 appraisal value, subject to change at certification | 2026 (exported June 9, 2026; certifies July 25, 2026) | Preliminary |
| Travis County Rates History ↗ | Adopted tax rate for each of this parcel's taxing entities | 1990–2025 | Verified |
| TaxCurOpenData | Current-year (2025) tax billing, by taxing entity | 2025 | Partial |
| PIR bulk billing export | Prior-year tax billing, Travis County Tax Office | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | Verified |
| Satellite imagery (Esri World Imagery) | Aerial view of the parcel | Located by geocoding this parcel's address — may not resolve for every address | — |