MANDA CARLSON RD TX 78653
| Owner | EAST BLACKLAND SOLAR PROJECT 1 LLC |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0267900108 |
| Short ID | 271881 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | D2 Farm/Ranch Improvements on Open-Space Land |
| Valuation | Productivity |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 13,899,517 SF |
| Acres | 319.089 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | ABS 302 SUR 42 FOWLER S VAR SURVEYS ACR 319.0890 |
| Neighborhood | _RGN320 |
| Land | $11,110,344 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $11,110,344 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $11,110,344 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $11,110,344 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) | — |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $11,110,344 |
| Taxable Value | $11,110,344 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +418.3% from $2,143,451 (2021) to $11,110,344 (2025), a CAGR of 50.9% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2023→2024), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Agricultural parcel countywide rose +96.0%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader agricultural market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 4 taxing entities is 0.6900% in 2025 (+0.0424% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $76,665. Travis County is the largest single contributor, at 54.5% of the total 2025 levy.
Asset Class: Agricultural. Agricultural valuation may be subject to rollback taxes if land use changes.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($11,110,344 land vs $0 improvements), about $1/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $11,110,344, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Agricultural property in Travis County — county median $561,432 (P25 $179,824 / P75 $1,355,511, n=7,602). Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +30.8% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2022–2026 preliminary trend, projected forward from 2026), the model projects market value near $36,618,453 by 2031, with an estimated annual tax burden around $111,402. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $41,757.67 | $41,757.67 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $13,112.76 | $13,112.76 | Paid |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1048% | 0.0987% | 0.0986% | 0.1013% | 0.1034% | +0.0021% | $11,488.10 | $11,488.10 | Paid |
| E02 Travis County ESD # 02 | 0.0900% | 0.0800% | 0.0773% | 0.0939% | 0.0928% | -0.0011% | $10,306.51 | $10,306.51 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 0.6640% | 0.5956% | 0.5812% | 0.6476% | 0.6900% | +0.0424% | $76,665.04 | $76,665.04 | Paid |
| Entity | Tax Rate | Amount Due | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCO Travis County | 0.3758% | $41,757.67 | 54.5% |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1180% | $13,112.76 | 17.1% |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1034% | $11,488.10 | 15.0% |
| E02 Travis County ESD # 02 | 0.0928% | $10,306.51 | 13.4% |
| Total | 0.6900% | $76,665.04 | 100.0% |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $9,572,670 | $11,110,344 | -13.8% |
| Assessed Value | $9,572,670 | $11,110,344 | -13.8% |
| Land Value | $9,572,670 | $11,110,344 | -13.8% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $9,572,670 | $11,110,344 | -13.8% |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$66,055
Estimated
|
~$76,665
Partial
|
|
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Pre | $9,572,670 | $9,572,670 | — | — | $9,572,670 | $9,572,670 | Not yet — post-cert | Preliminary |
| 2025 | $11,110,344 | $11,110,344 | — | — | $11,110,344 | $11,110,344 | ~$76,665 | Partial |
| 2024 | $11,110,344 | $11,110,344 | — | — | $11,110,344 | $11,110,344 | $71,952 | Verified |
| 2023 | $3,272,650 | $3,190,890 | $81,760 | — | $3,272,650 | $3,272,650 | $19,022 | Verified |
| 2022 | $3,272,650 | $3,190,890 | $81,760 | — | $3,272,650 | $3,272,650 | $19,493 | Verified |
| 2021 | $2,143,451 | $2,074,079 | $69,372 | — | $2,143,451 | $2,143,451 | $14,232 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -13.8% | -13.8% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +239.5% ! | +239.5% | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2022 | +52.7% | +52.7% | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +418.3% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -13.8% | +55.7% | +30.8% | +239.5% | 2024 | -13.8% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | 100.0% | 2021 | 100.0% | 2021 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.6900% | 0.6900% | — | 0.6900% | 2025 | 0.6900% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$76,665 | $40,273 | ~$91,391 | $76,665 | 2025 | $14,232 | 2021 |
Market value changed by 239% in 2024, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ~$12,518,909 | ~$10,529,937 | ~0.6965% | ~$73,346 | +30.8% |
| 2028 | ~$16,371,929 | ~$11,582,931 | ~0.7031% | ~$81,435 | +71.0% |
| 2029 | ~$21,410,817 | ~$12,741,224 | ~0.7096% | ~$90,408 | +123.7% |
| 2030 | ~$28,000,553 | ~$14,015,346 | ~0.7161% | ~$100,362 | +192.5% |
| 2031 | ~$36,618,453 | ~$15,416,881 | ~0.7226% | ~$111,402 | +282.5% |
| 2027 | ~$12,327,455 | ~$10,529,937 | ~0.6900% | ~$72,660 | +28.8% |
| 2028 | ~$15,875,002 | ~$11,582,931 | ~0.6900% | ~$79,926 | +65.8% |
| 2029 | ~$20,443,447 | ~$12,741,224 | ~0.6900% | ~$87,919 | +113.6% |
| 2030 | ~$26,326,582 | ~$14,015,346 | ~0.6900% | ~$96,711 | +175.0% |
| 2031 | ~$33,902,741 | ~$15,416,881 | ~0.6900% | ~$106,382 | +254.2% |
| 2027 | ~$12,710,362 | ~$10,529,937 | ~0.6998% | ~$73,689 | +32.8% |
| 2028 | ~$16,876,514 | ~$11,582,931 | ~0.7096% | ~$82,189 | +76.3% |
| 2029 | ~$22,408,232 | ~$12,741,224 | ~0.7193% | ~$91,653 | +134.1% |
| 2030 | ~$29,753,113 | ~$14,015,346 | ~0.7291% | ~$102,188 | +210.8% |
| 2031 | ~$39,505,472 | ~$15,416,881 | ~0.7389% | ~$113,913 | +312.7% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $11,110,344 places it in the top 25% for Agricultural properties in Travis County (7602 comparable) — 20× the county median of $561,432. Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $11,110,344 | $179,824 | $561,432 | $1,355,511 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2024 | $11,110,344 | $193,498 | $574,650 | $1,361,070 | ↑ Top 25% | +23.7% |
| 2023 | $3,272,650 | $150,007 | $423,072 | $1,000,412 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2022 | $3,272,650 | $166,375 | $416,994 | $932,726 | ↑ Top 25% | +46.1% |
| 2021 | $2,143,451 | $105,498 | $286,444 | $607,111 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
| Source | What it provides | Coverage for this parcel | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCAD Certified Appraisal Roll ↗ | Market, assessed, and taxable value; land/improvement split; exemptions | 2025 | Certified |
| Texas Comptroller Annual Jurisdiction Roll (AJR) | Prior-year market and taxable value | 2021–2024 | Verified |
| TCAD Preliminary Export ↗ | First-look 2026 appraisal value, subject to change at certification | 2026 (exported June 9, 2026; certifies July 25, 2026) | Preliminary |
| Travis County Rates History ↗ | Adopted tax rate for each of this parcel's taxing entities | 1990–2025 | Verified |
| TaxCurOpenData | Current-year (2025) tax billing, by taxing entity | 2025 | Partial |
| PIR bulk billing export | Prior-year tax billing, Travis County Tax Office | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | Verified |
| Satellite imagery (Esri World Imagery) | Aerial view of the parcel | Located by geocoding this parcel's address — may not resolve for every address | — |