MANDA CARLSON RD TX 78615
| Owner | AKARD DEBRA CORRINE |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0267900116 |
| Short ID | 271889 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | D1 Acreage — Qualified Open-Space Land (1-d-1) |
| Valuation | Productivity |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 1,306,844 SF |
| Acres | 30.001 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | ABS 476 SUR 67 LINDSEY I ACR 30.001 (1-D-1) |
| Neighborhood | _RGN320 |
| Land | $1,138,596 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $1,138,596 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $1,138,596 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $1,138,596 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$1,128,903 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $9,693 |
| Taxable Value | $9,693 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +382.2% from $236,114 (2021) to $1,138,596 (2025), a CAGR of 48.2% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2023→2024), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Agricultural parcel countywide rose +96.0%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader agricultural market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 5 taxing entities is 0.7205% in 2025 (+0.0359% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $70. Travis County is the largest single contributor, at 53.4% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($9,693) is $1,128,903 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Agricultural. Agricultural valuation may be subject to rollback taxes if land use changes.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($1,138,596 land vs $0 improvements), about $1/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $1,138,596, this parcel sits in the upper-middle (50th–75th percentile) of Agricultural property in Travis County — county median $561,432 (P25 $179,824 / P75 $1,355,511, n=7,602). Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +20.8% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2022–2026 preliminary trend, projected forward from 2026), the model projects market value near $2,320,459 by 2031, with an estimated annual tax burden around $17,055. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $36.43 | $36.43 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $11.44 | $11.44 | Paid |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1048% | 0.0987% | 0.0986% | 0.1013% | 0.1034% | +0.0021% | $10.02 | $10.02 | Paid |
| E02 Travis County ESD # 02 | 0.0900% | 0.0800% | 0.0773% | 0.0939% | 0.0928% | -0.0011% | $8.99 | $8.99 | Paid |
| E17 Travis County ESD #17 | 0.0450% | 0.0245% | 0.0230% | 0.0370% | 0.0305% | -0.0065% | $1.30 | $1.30 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 0.7090% | 0.6201% | 0.6042% | 0.6846% | 0.7205% | +0.0359% | $68.18 | $68.18 | Paid |
| Entity | Tax Rate | Amount Due | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCO Travis County | 0.3758% | $36.43 | 53.4% |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1180% | $11.44 | 16.8% |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1034% | $10.02 | 14.7% |
| E02 Travis County ESD # 02 | 0.0928% | $8.99 | 13.2% |
| E17 Travis County ESD #17 | 0.0305% | $1.30 | 1.9% |
| Total | 0.7205% | $68.18 | 100.0% |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $901,960 | $1,138,596 | -20.8% |
| Assessed Value | $9,946 | $9,693 | +2.6% |
| Land Value | $901,960 | $1,138,596 | -20.8% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $9,946 | $9,693 | +2.6% |
| HS Cap Loss | -$892,014 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$72
Estimated
|
~$68
Partial
|
|
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Pre | $901,960 | $901,960 | — | −$892,014 | $9,946 | $9,946 | Not yet — post-cert | Preliminary |
| 2025 | $1,138,596 | $1,138,596 | — | −$1,128,903 | $9,693 | $9,693 | ~$68 | Partial |
| 2024 | $1,138,596 | $1,138,596 | — | −$1,129,726 | $8,870 | $8,870 | $59 | Verified |
| 2023 | $388,571 | $388,571 | — | −$378,722 | $9,849 | $9,849 | $58 | Verified |
| 2022 | $423,524 | $423,524 | — | −$413,470 | $10,054 | $10,054 | $61 | Verified |
| 2021 | $236,114 | — | — | −$225,863 | $10,251 | $10,251 | $70 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -20.8% | +2.6% | 1.1% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +0.0% | +9.3% | 0.8% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +193.0% ! | -9.9% | 0.8% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2023 | -8.3% | -2.0% | 2.5% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2022 | +79.4% ! | -1.9% | 2.4% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | 4.3% | No billing data | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +382.2% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -20.8% | +48.7% | +20.8% | +193.0% | 2024 | -20.8% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 1.1% | 2.0% | — | 4.3% | 2021 | 0.8% | 2024 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.0100% | 0.0100% | — | 0.0100% | 2025 | 0.0100% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$68 | $63 | ~$12,031 | $70 | 2021 | $58 | 2023 |
Market value changed by 79% in 2022, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ~$1,089,594 | ~$1,089,594 | ~0.7234% | ~$7,882 | +20.8% |
| 2028 | ~$1,316,261 | ~$1,316,261 | ~0.7263% | ~$9,560 | +45.9% |
| 2029 | ~$1,590,081 | ~$1,590,081 | ~0.7292% | ~$11,595 | +76.3% |
| 2030 | ~$1,920,864 | ~$1,920,864 | ~0.7321% | ~$14,062 | +113.0% |
| 2031 | ~$2,320,459 | ~$2,320,459 | ~0.7350% | ~$17,055 | +157.3% |
| 2027 | ~$1,071,555 | ~$1,071,555 | ~0.7205% | ~$7,721 | +18.8% |
| 2028 | ~$1,273,038 | ~$1,273,038 | ~0.7205% | ~$9,173 | +41.1% |
| 2029 | ~$1,512,406 | ~$1,512,406 | ~0.7205% | ~$10,897 | +67.7% |
| 2030 | ~$1,796,781 | ~$1,796,781 | ~0.7205% | ~$12,946 | +99.2% |
| 2031 | ~$2,134,628 | ~$2,134,628 | ~0.7205% | ~$15,381 | +136.7% |
| 2027 | ~$1,107,633 | ~$1,107,633 | ~0.7249% | ~$8,029 | +22.8% |
| 2028 | ~$1,360,205 | ~$1,360,205 | ~0.7292% | ~$9,919 | +50.8% |
| 2029 | ~$1,670,371 | ~$1,670,371 | ~0.7335% | ~$12,253 | +85.2% |
| 2030 | ~$2,051,264 | ~$2,051,264 | ~0.7379% | ~$15,136 | +127.4% |
| 2031 | ~$2,519,012 | ~$2,519,012 | ~0.7422% | ~$18,696 | +179.3% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $1,138,596 places it in the 50th–75th percentile for Agricultural properties in Travis County (7602 comparable) — +103% above the county median of $561,432. Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $1,138,596 | $179,824 | $561,432 | $1,355,511 | ↑ Above median | +0.0% |
| 2024 | $1,138,596 | $193,498 | $574,650 | $1,361,070 | ↑ Above median | +23.7% |
| 2023 | $388,571 | $150,007 | $423,072 | $1,000,412 | ↓ Below median | +0.0% |
| 2022 | $423,524 | $166,375 | $416,994 | $932,726 | ↑ Above median | +46.1% |
| 2021 | $236,114 | $105,498 | $286,444 | $607,111 | ↓ Below median | base yr |
| Source | What it provides | Coverage for this parcel | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCAD Certified Appraisal Roll ↗ | Market, assessed, and taxable value; land/improvement split; exemptions | 2025 | Certified |
| Texas Comptroller Annual Jurisdiction Roll (AJR) | Prior-year market and taxable value | 2021–2024 | Verified |
| TCAD Preliminary Export ↗ | First-look 2026 appraisal value, subject to change at certification | 2026 (exported June 9, 2026; certifies July 25, 2026) | Preliminary |
| Travis County Rates History ↗ | Adopted tax rate for each of this parcel's taxing entities | 1990–2025 | Verified |
| TaxCurOpenData | Current-year (2025) tax billing, by taxing entity | 2025 | Partial |
| PIR bulk billing export | Prior-year tax billing, Travis County Tax Office | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | Verified |
| Satellite imagery (Esri World Imagery) | Aerial view of the parcel | Located by geocoding this parcel's address — may not resolve for every address | — |