LUND CARLSON RD TX 78615
| Owner | MOKRY JOE R JR & LINDA |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0267900403 |
| Short ID | 271908 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | D1 Acreage — Qualified Open-Space Land (1-d-1) |
| Valuation | Productivity |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 1,872,644 SF |
| Acres | 42.990 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | ABS 726 SUR 39 SMITH M W ACR 42.99 (1-D-1) |
| Neighborhood | _RGN320 |
| Land | $1,596,621 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $1,596,621 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $1,596,621 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $1,596,621 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$1,582,731 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $13,890 |
| Taxable Value | $13,890 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +344.4% from $359,273 (2021) to $1,596,621 (2025), a CAGR of 45.2% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2023→2024), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Agricultural parcel countywide rose +96.0%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader agricultural market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 4 taxing entities is 0.6973% in 2025 (+0.0436% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $97. Travis County is the largest single contributor, at 53.9% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($13,890) is $1,582,731 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Agricultural. Agricultural valuation may be subject to rollback taxes if land use changes.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($1,596,621 land vs $0 improvements), about $1/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $1,596,621, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Agricultural property in Travis County — county median $561,432 (P25 $179,824 / P75 $1,355,511, n=7,602). Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +25.7% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2022–2026 preliminary trend, projected forward from 2026), the model projects market value near $4,054,034 by 2031, with an estimated annual tax burden around $29,448. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $52.20 | $52.20 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $16.39 | $16.39 | Paid |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1048% | 0.0987% | 0.0986% | 0.1013% | 0.1034% | +0.0021% | $14.36 | $14.36 | Paid |
| E13 Travis County ESD # 13 | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | +0.0000% | $13.89 | $13.89 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 0.6740% | 0.6156% | 0.6039% | 0.6537% | 0.6973% | +0.0436% | $96.84 | $96.84 | Paid |
| Entity | Tax Rate | Amount Due | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCO Travis County | 0.3758% | $52.20 | 53.9% |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1180% | $16.39 | 16.9% |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1034% | $14.36 | 14.8% |
| E13 Travis County ESD # 13 | 0.1000% | $13.89 | 14.3% |
| Total | 0.6973% | $96.84 | 100.0% |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $1,289,700 | $1,596,621 | -19.2% |
| Assessed Value | $14,252 | $13,890 | +2.6% |
| Land Value | $1,289,700 | $1,596,621 | -19.2% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $14,252 | $13,890 | +2.6% |
| HS Cap Loss | -$1,275,448 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$99
Estimated
|
~$97
Partial
|
|
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Pre | $1,289,700 | $1,289,700 | — | −$1,275,448 | $14,252 | $14,252 | Not yet — post-cert | Preliminary |
| 2025 | $1,596,621 | $1,596,621 | — | −$1,582,731 | $13,890 | $13,890 | ~$97 | Partial |
| 2024 | $1,596,621 | $1,596,621 | — | −$1,583,911 | $12,710 | $12,710 | $83 | Verified |
| 2023 | $521,871 | $521,871 | — | −$507,758 | $14,113 | $14,113 | $85 | Verified |
| 2022 | $515,905 | $515,905 | — | −$501,498 | $14,407 | $14,407 | $89 | Verified |
| 2021 | $359,273 | — | — | −$344,583 | $14,690 | $14,690 | $99 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -19.2% | +2.6% | 1.1% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +0.0% | +9.3% | 0.9% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +205.9% ! | -9.9% | 0.8% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2023 | +1.2% | -2.0% | 2.7% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2022 | +43.6% | -1.9% | 2.8% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | 4.1% | No billing data | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +344.4% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -19.2% | +46.3% | +25.7% | +205.9% | 2024 | -19.2% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 1.1% | 2.1% | — | 4.1% | 2021 | 0.8% | 2024 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.0100% | 0.0100% | — | 0.0100% | 2025 | 0.0100% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$97 | $91 | ~$19,373 | $99 | 2021 | $83 | 2024 |
Market value changed by 206% in 2024, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ~$1,621,692 | ~$1,621,692 | ~0.7031% | ~$11,402 | +25.7% |
| 2028 | ~$2,039,145 | ~$2,039,145 | ~0.7089% | ~$14,456 | +58.1% |
| 2029 | ~$2,564,058 | ~$2,564,058 | ~0.7147% | ~$18,326 | +98.8% |
| 2030 | ~$3,224,094 | ~$3,224,094 | ~0.7206% | ~$23,231 | +150.0% |
| 2031 | ~$4,054,034 | ~$4,054,034 | ~0.7264% | ~$29,448 | +214.3% |
| 2027 | ~$1,595,898 | ~$1,595,898 | ~0.6973% | ~$11,128 | +23.7% |
| 2028 | ~$1,974,794 | ~$1,974,794 | ~0.6973% | ~$13,770 | +53.1% |
| 2029 | ~$2,443,645 | ~$2,443,645 | ~0.6973% | ~$17,039 | +89.5% |
| 2030 | ~$3,023,811 | ~$3,023,811 | ~0.6973% | ~$21,084 | +134.5% |
| 2031 | ~$3,741,719 | ~$3,741,719 | ~0.6973% | ~$26,090 | +190.1% |
| 2027 | ~$1,647,486 | ~$1,647,486 | ~0.7060% | ~$11,631 | +27.7% |
| 2028 | ~$2,104,529 | ~$2,104,529 | ~0.7147% | ~$15,042 | +63.2% |
| 2029 | ~$2,688,364 | ~$2,688,364 | ~0.7235% | ~$19,449 | +108.4% |
| 2030 | ~$3,434,164 | ~$3,434,164 | ~0.7322% | ~$25,145 | +166.3% |
| 2031 | ~$4,386,864 | ~$4,386,864 | ~0.7409% | ~$32,504 | +240.1% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $1,596,621 places it in the top 25% for Agricultural properties in Travis County (7602 comparable) — +184% above the county median of $561,432. Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $1,596,621 | $179,824 | $561,432 | $1,355,511 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2024 | $1,596,621 | $193,498 | $574,650 | $1,361,070 | ↑ Top 25% | +23.7% |
| 2023 | $521,871 | $150,007 | $423,072 | $1,000,412 | ↑ Above median | +0.0% |
| 2022 | $515,905 | $166,375 | $416,994 | $932,726 | ↑ Above median | +46.1% |
| 2021 | $359,273 | $105,498 | $286,444 | $607,111 | ↑ Above median | base yr |
| Source | What it provides | Coverage for this parcel | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCAD Certified Appraisal Roll ↗ | Market, assessed, and taxable value; land/improvement split; exemptions | 2025 | Certified |
| Texas Comptroller Annual Jurisdiction Roll (AJR) | Prior-year market and taxable value | 2021–2024 | Verified |
| TCAD Preliminary Export ↗ | First-look 2026 appraisal value, subject to change at certification | 2026 (exported June 9, 2026; certifies July 25, 2026) | Preliminary |
| Travis County Rates History ↗ | Adopted tax rate for each of this parcel's taxing entities | 1990–2025 | Verified |
| TaxCurOpenData | Current-year (2025) tax billing, by taxing entity | 2025 | Partial |
| PIR bulk billing export | Prior-year tax billing, Travis County Tax Office | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | Verified |
| Satellite imagery (Esri World Imagery) | Aerial view of the parcel | Located by geocoding this parcel's address — may not resolve for every address | — |