1804 KEILBAR LN AUSTIN, TX 78745
| Owner | WILLIAMS JARED RANDALL |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0422150129 |
| Short ID | 532340 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | 13 Mobile Home — Single (Real) |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | 1,064 SF |
| Land SF | 13,750 SF |
| Acres | 0.316 |
| Year Built | 1972 |
| Legal | LOT 3 BLK A KEILBAR MAX SUBD SEC 1 MH S#7721476FK2N1406 |
| Neighborhood | J1314MH |
| Land | $281,015 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $281,015 |
| Improvement | $13,608 |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | $13,608 |
| Market | $294,623 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $294,623 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$241,992 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $52,631 |
| Exemptions on file | HS,OV65 |
|---|---|
| Taxable Value | $52,631 |
Appreciation: Market value has risen +94.5% from $151,453 (2021) to $294,623 (2025), a CAGR of 18.1% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2021→2022), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Residential parcel countywide rose +23.1%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader residential market over the same period.
Homestead Cap History: Cap activity also recorded in AJR data as recently as 2024 ($1,453, ~0.5% of market), consistent with the active cap shown above. Historical data from AJR 2021–2024 (Partial confidence). Current status confirmed by 2025 TCAD Certified Export.
Asset Class: Single-family residential. Buyer should verify which exemptions carry and which reset at sale. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 95% of market value ($281,015 land vs $13,608 improvements), about $20/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land under a ~54-year-old structure, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $294,623, this parcel sits in the bottom quartile (<25th percentile) of Residential property in Travis County — county median $477,804 (P25 $357,304 / P75 $734,387, n=318,609). Residential here is the broad TCAD category — every residential property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +11.9% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2026 preliminary trend, projected forward from 2026), the model projects market value near $467,483 by 2031, with an estimated annual tax burden around $0. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
5 components · show ▾hide ▴
| Code | Description | SF | In Gross |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1ST | 1st Floor | 1,064 SF | ✓ |
| 061 | CARPORT ATT 1ST | 418 SF | ✗ |
| 571 | STORAGE DET | 200 SF | ✓ |
| 512 | DECK UNCOVRED | 112 SF | ✗ |
| 121 | WATER/SEWER INF | 1 SF | ✓ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $266,086 | $294,623 | -9.7% |
| Assessed Value | $57,894 | $52,631 | +10.0% |
| Land Value | $255,468 | $281,015 | -9.1% |
| Improvement Value | $10,618 | $13,608 | -22.0% |
| Taxable Value | $57,894 | $52,631 | +10.0% |
| Exemptions | HS,OV65 | HS,OV65 | |
| HS Cap Loss | -$208,192 | -$1,453 (2024) | |
| Total Tax | Not available | — | |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Pre | $266,086 | $255,468 | $10,618 | −$208,192 | $57,894 | $57,894 | Not yet — post-cert | Preliminary |
| 2025 | $294,623 | $281,015 | $13,608 | −$241,992 | $52,631 | $52,631 | not in county billing file Why? | Partial |
| 2024 | $276,453 | $275,000 | $1,453 | −$228,607 | $47,846 | $— | not in county billing file Why? | Partial |
| 2023 | $276,453 | $275,000 | $1,453 | −$232,957 | $43,496 | $— | not in county billing file Why? | Partial |
| 2022 | $276,453 | $275,000 | $1,453 | −$236,911 | $39,542 | $— | not in county billing file Why? | Partial |
| 2021 | $151,453 | $150,000 | $1,453 | −$115,506 | $35,947 | $35,947 | not in county billing file Why? | Partial |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -9.7% | +10.0% | 21.8% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +6.6% | +10.0% | 17.9% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +0.0% | +10.0% | 17.3% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | +10.0% | 15.7% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2022 | +82.5% ! | +10.0% | 14.3% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | 23.7% | No billing data | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +94.5% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -9.7% | +15.9% | +11.9% | +82.5% | 2022 | -9.7% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 21.8% | 18.4% | — | 23.7% | 2021 | 14.3% | 2022 |
|
Effective Tax Rate (2025)
⚑ Billing data available for 2025 only |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ Billing data available for 2025 only |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Market value changed by 83% in 2022, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
This parcel carries a real, materially-sized homestead cap per 2025 Certified data — assessed value is meaningfully below market value. A buyer loses this benefit at purchase and the assessed value resets to full market, increasing the annual tax bill. Factor this into acquisition underwriting. Cap activity consistent with AJR records back to 2024.
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ~$297,832 | ~$63,683 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | +11.9% |
| 2028 | ~$333,365 | ~$70,052 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | +25.3% |
| 2029 | ~$373,137 | ~$77,057 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | +40.2% |
| 2030 | ~$417,655 | ~$84,763 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | +57.0% |
| 2031 | ~$467,483 | ~$93,239 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | +75.7% |
| 2027 | ~$292,510 | ~$63,683 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | +9.9% |
| 2028 | ~$321,558 | ~$70,052 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | +20.8% |
| 2029 | ~$353,491 | ~$77,057 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | +32.8% |
| 2030 | ~$388,594 | ~$84,763 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | +46.0% |
| 2031 | ~$427,184 | ~$93,239 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | +60.5% |
| 2027 | ~$303,153 | ~$63,683 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | +13.9% |
| 2028 | ~$345,384 | ~$70,052 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | +29.8% |
| 2029 | ~$393,499 | ~$77,057 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | +47.9% |
| 2030 | ~$448,315 | ~$84,763 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | +68.5% |
| 2031 | ~$510,768 | ~$93,239 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | +92.0% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $294,623 places it in the bottom 25% for Residential properties in Travis County (318609 comparable) — -38% below the county median of $477,804. Residential here is the broad TCAD category — every residential property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $294,623 | $357,304 | $477,804 | $734,387 | ↓ Bottom 25% | -6.4% |
| 2024 | $276,453 | $383,835 | $511,706 | $784,223 | ↓ Bottom 25% | -8.7% |
| 2023 | $276,453 | $423,669 | $564,806 | $843,567 | ↓ Bottom 25% | -2.0% |
| 2022 | $276,453 | $433,330 | $580,003 | $860,890 | ↓ Bottom 25% | +53.1% |
| 2021 | $151,453 | $281,915 | $388,138 | $576,451 | ↓ Bottom 25% | base yr |
| Source | What it provides | Coverage for this parcel | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCAD Certified Appraisal Roll ↗ | Market, assessed, and taxable value; land/improvement split; exemptions | 2025 | Certified |
| Texas Comptroller Annual Jurisdiction Roll (AJR) | Prior-year market and taxable value | 2021–2024 | Verified |
| TCAD Preliminary Export ↗ | First-look 2026 appraisal value, subject to change at certification | 2026 (exported June 9, 2026; certifies July 25, 2026) | Preliminary |
| PIR bulk billing export | Prior-year tax billing, Travis County Tax Office | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | Verified |
| Satellite imagery (Esri World Imagery) | Aerial view of the parcel | Located by geocoding this parcel's address — may not resolve for every address | — |