PICKETT LN TX 78641
| Owner | UNITED STATES OF AMERICA |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0533770146 |
| Short ID | 355429 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | E Rural Land (Not Qualified for Open-Space Appraisal) |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 4,365,409 SF |
| Acres | 100.216 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | ABS 421 SUR 559 HATTEN L D ACR 100.216 |
| Neighborhood | _RGN145 |
| Land | $3,507,526 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $3,507,526 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $3,507,526 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $3,507,526 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) | — |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $3,507,526 |
| Taxable Value | $3,507,526 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +250.0% from $1,002,154 (2021) to $3,507,526 (2025), a CAGR of 36.8% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Growth has been fairly evenly spread across these years rather than concentrated in one jump. Over the same span, the median Agricultural parcel countywide rose +96.0%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader agricultural market over the same period.
Asset Class: Agricultural. Agricultural valuation may be subject to rollback taxes if land use changes. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($3,507,526 land vs $0 improvements), about $1/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $3,507,526, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Agricultural property in Travis County — county median $561,432 (P25 $179,824 / P75 $1,355,511, n=7,602). Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the -12.0% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2022–2026 preliminary trend, projected forward from 2026), the model projects market value near $793,825 by 2031, with an estimated annual tax burden around $0. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $1,503,240 | $3,507,526 | -57.1% |
| Assessed Value | $1,503,240 | $3,507,526 | -57.1% |
| Land Value | $1,503,240 | $3,507,526 | -57.1% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | — | — | — |
| Exemptions | — | E | |
| Total Tax | Pending certification | — | |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Pre | $1,503,240 | $1,503,240 | — | — | $1,503,240 | $— | Not yet — post-cert | Preliminary |
| 2025 | $3,507,526 | $3,507,526 | — | — | $3,507,526 | $— | not in county billing file Why? | Partial |
| 2024 | $3,507,526 | $3,507,526 | — | −$501,087 | $3,006,439 | $— | not in county billing file Why? | Partial |
| 2023 | $2,505,366 | $2,505,366 | — | — | $2,505,366 | $— | not in county billing file Why? | Partial |
| 2022 | $2,505,366 | $2,505,366 | — | — | $2,505,366 | $— | not in county billing file Why? | Partial |
| 2021 | $1,002,154 | $1,002,154 | — | — | $1,002,154 | $1,002,154 | $15,268 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -57.1% | -57.1% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +0.0% | +16.7% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +40.0% | +20.0% | 85.7% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2022 | +150.0% ! | +150.0% | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +250.0% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -57.1% | +26.6% | -12.0% | +150.0% | 2022 | -57.1% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 100.0% | 97.6% | — | 100.0% | 2021 | 85.7% | 2024 |
|
Effective Tax Rate (2025)
⚑ Billing data available for 2025 only |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tax Amount | $15,268 | $15,268 | — | $15,268 | 2021 | $15,268 | 2021 |
Market value changed by 150% in 2022, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ~$1,323,024 | ~$1,323,024 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | -12.0% |
| 2028 | ~$1,164,413 | ~$1,164,413 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | -22.5% |
| 2029 | ~$1,024,817 | ~$1,024,817 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | -31.8% |
| 2030 | ~$901,956 | ~$901,956 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | -40.0% |
| 2031 | ~$793,825 | ~$793,825 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | -47.2% |
| 2027 | ~$1,428,078 | ~$1,428,078 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | -5.0% |
| 2028 | ~$1,356,674 | ~$1,356,674 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | -9.8% |
| 2029 | ~$1,288,840 | ~$1,288,840 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | -14.3% |
| 2030 | ~$1,224,398 | ~$1,224,398 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | -18.5% |
| 2031 | ~$1,163,178 | ~$1,163,178 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | -22.6% |
| 2027 | ~$1,353,088 | ~$1,353,088 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | -10.0% |
| 2028 | ~$1,217,935 | ~$1,217,935 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | -19.0% |
| 2029 | ~$1,096,281 | ~$1,096,281 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | -27.1% |
| 2030 | ~$986,779 | ~$986,779 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | -34.4% |
| 2031 | ~$888,214 | ~$888,214 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | -40.9% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $3,507,526 places it in the top 25% for Agricultural properties in Travis County (7602 comparable) — 6× the county median of $561,432. Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $3,507,526 | $179,824 | $561,432 | $1,355,511 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2024 | $3,507,526 | $193,498 | $574,650 | $1,361,070 | ↑ Top 25% | +23.7% |
| 2023 | $2,505,366 | $150,007 | $423,072 | $1,000,412 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2022 | $2,505,366 | $166,375 | $416,994 | $932,726 | ↑ Top 25% | +46.1% |
| 2021 | $1,002,154 | $105,498 | $286,444 | $607,111 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
| Source | What it provides | Coverage for this parcel | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCAD Certified Appraisal Roll ↗ | Market, assessed, and taxable value; land/improvement split; exemptions | 2025 | Certified |
| Texas Comptroller Annual Jurisdiction Roll (AJR) | Prior-year market and taxable value | 2021–2024 | Verified |
| TCAD Preliminary Export ↗ | First-look 2026 appraisal value, subject to change at certification | 2026 (exported June 9, 2026; certifies July 25, 2026) | Preliminary |
| PIR bulk billing export | Prior-year tax billing, Travis County Tax Office | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | Verified |
| Satellite imagery (Esri World Imagery) | Aerial view of the parcel | Located by geocoding this parcel's address — may not resolve for every address | — |