18512 CARLSON LN TX 78653
| Owner | CARLSON LANDING LLC |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0651090311 |
| Short ID | 358801 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | 00 (unlisted) |
| Valuation | Productivity |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 1,253,308 SF |
| Acres | 28.772 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | ABS 518 SUR 65 MARTIN H ACR 28.772 (1-D-1) |
| Neighborhood | _RGN320 |
| Land | $1,086,976 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $1,086,976 |
| Improvement | $25,937 |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | $25,937 |
| Market | $1,112,913 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $1,112,913 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$1,077,680 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $35,233 |
| Taxable Value | $35,233 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +492.7% from $187,777 (2021) to $1,112,913 (2025), a CAGR of 56.0% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2023→2024), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Agricultural parcel countywide rose +96.0%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader agricultural market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 4 taxing entities is 0.6973% in 2025 (+0.0436% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $246. Travis County is the largest single contributor, at 62.8% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($35,233) is $1,077,680 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Agricultural. Agricultural valuation may be subject to rollback taxes if land use changes.
Value Composition: Land carries 98% of market value ($1,086,976 land vs $25,937 improvements), about $1/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $1,112,913, this parcel sits in the upper-middle (50th–75th percentile) of Agricultural property in Travis County — county median $561,432 (P25 $179,824 / P75 $1,355,511, n=7,602). Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +29.9% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2022–2026 preliminary trend, projected forward from 2026), the model projects market value near $3,255,695 by 2031, with an estimated annual tax burden around $331. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
1 components · show ▾hide ▴
| Code | Description | SF | In Gross |
|---|---|---|---|
| 571 | STORAGE DET | 1,200 SF | ✓ |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $132.42 | $132.42 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $41.58 | $41.58 | Paid |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1048% | 0.0987% | 0.0986% | 0.1013% | 0.1034% | +0.0021% | $36.43 | $36.43 | Paid |
| E13 Travis County ESD # 13 | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | +0.0000% | $0.28 | $0.28 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 0.6740% | 0.6156% | 0.6039% | 0.6537% | 0.6973% | +0.0436% | $210.71 | $210.71 | Paid |
| Entity | Tax Rate | Amount Due | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCO Travis County | 0.3758% | $132.42 | 62.8% |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1180% | $41.58 | 19.7% |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1034% | $36.43 | 17.3% |
| E13 Travis County ESD # 13 | 0.1000% | $0.28 | 0.1% |
| Total | 0.6973% | $210.71 | 100.0% |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $881,918 | $1,112,913 | -20.8% |
| Assessed Value | $28,296 | $35,233 | -19.7% |
| Land Value | $863,160 | $1,086,976 | -20.6% |
| Improvement Value | $18,758 | $25,937 | -27.7% |
| Taxable Value | $28,296 | $35,233 | -19.7% |
| HS Cap Loss | -$853,622 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$197
Estimated
|
~$211
Partial
|
|
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Pre | $881,918 | $863,160 | $18,758 | −$853,622 | $28,296 | $28,296 | Not yet — post-cert | Preliminary |
| 2025 | $1,112,913 | $1,086,976 | $25,937 | −$1,077,680 | $35,233 | $35,233 | ~$211 | Partial |
| 2024 | $1,090,995 | $1,086,976 | $4,019 | −$645,010 | $445,985 | $445,985 | $2,483 | Verified |
| 2023 | $371,654 | $367,635 | $4,019 | −$358,190 | $13,464 | $13,464 | $68 | Verified |
| 2022 | $310,210 | $306,191 | $4,019 | −$302,234 | $7,976 | $7,976 | $41 | Verified |
| 2021 | $187,777 | — | $4,019 | −$179,755 | $8,022 | $8,022 | $46 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -20.8% | -19.7% | 3.2% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +2.0% | -92.1% | 3.2% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +193.6% ! | +3212.4% | 40.9% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2023 | +19.8% | +68.8% | 3.6% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2022 | +65.2% | -0.6% | 2.6% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | 4.3% | No billing data | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +492.7% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -20.8% | +52.0% | +29.9% | +193.6% | 2024 | -20.8% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 3.2% | 9.6% | — | 40.9% | 2024 | 2.6% | 2022 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.0200% | 0.0200% | — | 0.0200% | 2025 | 0.0200% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$211 | $570 | ~$272 | $2,483 | 2024 | $41 | 2022 |
Market value changed by 194% in 2024, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ~$1,145,174 | ~$31,126 | ~0.7031% | ~$219 | +29.9% |
| 2028 | ~$1,487,012 | ~$34,238 | ~0.7089% | ~$243 | +68.6% |
| 2029 | ~$1,930,890 | ~$37,662 | ~0.7147% | ~$269 | +118.9% |
| 2030 | ~$2,507,267 | ~$41,428 | ~0.7206% | ~$299 | +184.3% |
| 2031 | ~$3,255,695 | ~$45,571 | ~0.7264% | ~$331 | +269.2% |
| 2027 | ~$1,127,535 | ~$31,126 | ~0.6973% | ~$217 | +27.9% |
| 2028 | ~$1,441,558 | ~$34,238 | ~0.6973% | ~$239 | +63.5% |
| 2029 | ~$1,843,036 | ~$37,662 | ~0.6973% | ~$263 | +109.0% |
| 2030 | ~$2,356,328 | ~$41,428 | ~0.6973% | ~$289 | +167.2% |
| 2031 | ~$3,012,574 | ~$45,571 | ~0.6973% | ~$318 | +241.6% |
| 2027 | ~$1,162,812 | ~$31,126 | ~0.7060% | ~$220 | +31.9% |
| 2028 | ~$1,533,172 | ~$34,238 | ~0.7147% | ~$245 | +73.8% |
| 2029 | ~$2,021,492 | ~$37,662 | ~0.7235% | ~$272 | +129.2% |
| 2030 | ~$2,665,344 | ~$41,428 | ~0.7322% | ~$303 | +202.2% |
| 2031 | ~$3,514,265 | ~$45,571 | ~0.7409% | ~$338 | +298.5% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $1,112,913 places it in the 50th–75th percentile for Agricultural properties in Travis County (7602 comparable) — +98% above the county median of $561,432. Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $1,112,913 | $179,824 | $561,432 | $1,355,511 | ↑ Above median | +0.0% |
| 2024 | $1,090,995 | $193,498 | $574,650 | $1,361,070 | ↑ Above median | +23.7% |
| 2023 | $371,654 | $150,007 | $423,072 | $1,000,412 | ↓ Below median | +0.0% |
| 2022 | $310,210 | $166,375 | $416,994 | $932,726 | ↓ Below median | +46.1% |
| 2021 | $187,777 | $105,498 | $286,444 | $607,111 | ↓ Below median | base yr |
| Source | What it provides | Coverage for this parcel | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCAD Certified Appraisal Roll ↗ | Market, assessed, and taxable value; land/improvement split; exemptions | 2025 | Certified |
| Texas Comptroller Annual Jurisdiction Roll (AJR) | Prior-year market and taxable value | 2021–2024 | Verified |
| TCAD Preliminary Export ↗ | First-look 2026 appraisal value, subject to change at certification | 2026 (exported June 9, 2026; certifies July 25, 2026) | Preliminary |
| Travis County Rates History ↗ | Adopted tax rate for each of this parcel's taxing entities | 1990–2025 | Verified |
| TaxCurOpenData | Current-year (2025) tax billing, by taxing entity | 2025 | Partial |
| PIR bulk billing export | Prior-year tax billing, Travis County Tax Office | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | Verified |
| Satellite imagery (Esri World Imagery) | Aerial view of the parcel | Located by geocoding this parcel's address — may not resolve for every address | — |