16177 FLINT ROCK RD TX 78734
| Owner | ELLIS JORGE ROBERTO & |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0127780303 |
| Short ID | 521697 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | D1 Acreage — Qualified Open-Space Land (1-d-1) |
| Valuation | Productivity |
| Improvement SF | 11,726 SF |
| Land SF | 1,559,579 SF |
| Acres | 35.803 |
| Year Built | 1999 |
| Legal | ABS 821 SUR 78 WALDRON C W ACR 34.803 (1-D-1) |
| Neighborhood | R3014 |
| Land | $1,892,355 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $1,892,355 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $1,892,355 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $1,892,355 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$1,698,223 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $194,132 |
| Taxable Value | $194,132 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +7.5% from $1,760,985 (2021) to $1,892,355 (2025), a CAGR of 1.8% over 4 years. Growth has been relatively flat for this asset class. Most of this growth came in a single year (2023→2024), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Agricultural parcel countywide rose +96.0%, so this parcel has lagged the broader agricultural market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 5 taxing entities is 1.6800% in 2025 (+0.0211% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $3,261. Lake Travis ISD is the largest single contributor, at 61.9% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($194,132) is $1,698,223 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Agricultural. Agricultural valuation may be subject to rollback taxes if land use changes.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($1,892,355 land vs $0 improvements), about $1/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $1,892,355, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Agricultural property in Travis County — county median $561,432 (P25 $179,824 / P75 $1,355,511, n=7,602). Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +20.0% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2022–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $4,717,259 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $4,564. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
15 components · show ▾hide ▴
| Code | Description | SF | In Gross |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1ST | 1st Floor | 11,726 SF | ✓ |
| 095 | HVAC RESIDENTIAL | 7,868 SF | ✗ |
| 011 | PORCH OPEN 1ST F | 5,007 SF | ✗ |
| 051 | CARPORT DET 1ST | 4,836 SF | ✗ |
| 298 | LIGHT UTILITY BLDG | 2,744 SF | ✓ |
| 061 | CARPORT ATT 1ST | 2,601 SF | ✗ |
| 612 | TERRACE UNCOVERD | 1,758 SF | ✗ |
| 031 | GARAGE DET 1ST F | 936 SF | ✓ |
| 581 | STORAGE ATT | 406 SF | ✓ |
| 571 | STORAGE DET | 240 SF | ✓ |
| 251 | BATHROOM | 11 SF | ✓ |
| 411 | SOLAR DEVICES RESIDENTIAL | 9 SF | ✓ |
| 522 | FIREPLACE | 3 SF | ✓ |
| 447 | SPA CONCRETE | 1 SF | ✗ |
| 604 | POOL RES CONC | 1 SF | ✗ |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILT Lake Travis ISD | 1.2301% | 1.2121% | 1.0741% | 1.0656% | 1.0397% | -0.0259% | $2,018.39 | $2,018.39 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $729.64 | $729.64 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $229.12 | $229.12 | Paid |
| E06 Travis County ESD # 06 | 0.1000% | 0.0867% | 0.0831% | 0.0876% | 0.0904% | +0.0028% | $175.49 | $175.49 | Paid |
| W17 WCID # 17 | 0.0568% | 0.0543% | 0.0533% | 0.0533% | 0.0560% | +0.0027% | $108.71 | $108.71 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 1.8561% | 1.7700% | 1.6158% | 1.6589% | 1.6800% | +0.0211% | $3,261.35 | $3,261.35 | Paid |
| Entity | Tax Rate | Amount Due | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILT Lake Travis ISD | 1.0397% | $2,018.39 | 61.9% |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3758% | $729.64 | 22.4% |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1180% | $229.12 | 7.0% |
| E06 Travis County ESD # 06 | 0.0904% | $175.49 | 5.4% |
| W17 WCID # 17 | 0.0560% | $108.71 | 3.3% |
| Total | 1.6800% | $3,261.35 | 100.0% |
| 2026 Preliminary | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | — | $1,892,355 | — |
| Assessed Value | — | $194,132 | — |
| Land Value | — | $1,892,355 | — |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | — | $194,132 | — |
| Total Tax | Pending certification |
~$3,261
Partial
|
|
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $1,892,355 | $1,892,355 | — | −$1,698,223 | $194,132 | $194,132 | ~$3,261 | Partial |
| 2024 | $2,489,589 | $2,489,589 | — | −$2,327,395 | $162,194 | $162,194 | $60,422 | Verified |
| 2023 | $1,093,932 | $1,093,932 | — | −$958,237 | $135,695 | $135,695 | $60,705 | Verified |
| 2022 | $1,093,932 | $1,093,932 | — | −$958,483 | $135,449 | $135,449 | $60,134 | Verified |
| 2021 | $1,760,985 | $47,271 | $1,713,714 | — | $1,760,985 | $1,760,985 | $34,683 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -24.0% | +19.7% | 10.3% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +127.6% ! | +19.5% | 6.5% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | +0.2% | 12.4% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2022 | -37.9% | -92.3% | 12.4% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +7.5% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -24.0% | +16.4% | +20.0% | +127.6% | 2024 | -37.9% | 2022 |
| Assessment Ratio | 10.3% | 28.3% | — | 100.0% | 2021 | 6.5% | 2024 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.1700% | 0.1700% | — | 0.1700% | 2025 | 0.1700% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$3,261 | $43,841 | ~$4,014 | $60,705 | 2023 | $3,261 | 2025 |
Market value changed by 128% in 2024, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$2,271,643 | ~$213,545 | ~1.6359% | ~$3,493 | +20.0% |
| 2027 | ~$2,726,952 | ~$234,900 | ~1.5919% | ~$3,739 | +44.1% |
| 2028 | ~$3,273,519 | ~$258,390 | ~1.5479% | ~$4,000 | +73.0% |
| 2029 | ~$3,929,636 | ~$284,229 | ~1.5039% | ~$4,274 | +107.7% |
| 2030 | ~$4,717,259 | ~$312,652 | ~1.4598% | ~$4,564 | +149.3% |
| 2026 | ~$2,233,796 | ~$213,545 | ~1.6800% | ~$3,587 | +18.0% |
| 2027 | ~$2,636,843 | ~$234,900 | ~1.6800% | ~$3,946 | +39.3% |
| 2028 | ~$3,112,613 | ~$258,390 | ~1.6800% | ~$4,341 | +64.5% |
| 2029 | ~$3,674,227 | ~$284,229 | ~1.6800% | ~$4,775 | +94.2% |
| 2030 | ~$4,337,173 | ~$312,652 | ~1.6800% | ~$5,252 | +129.2% |
| 2026 | ~$2,309,490 | ~$213,545 | ~1.6139% | ~$3,446 | +22.0% |
| 2027 | ~$2,818,574 | ~$234,900 | ~1.5479% | ~$3,636 | +48.9% |
| 2028 | ~$3,439,877 | ~$258,390 | ~1.4818% | ~$3,829 | +81.8% |
| 2029 | ~$4,198,135 | ~$284,229 | ~1.4158% | ~$4,024 | +121.8% |
| 2030 | ~$5,123,537 | ~$312,652 | ~1.3498% | ~$4,220 | +170.7% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $1,892,355 places it in the top 25% for Agricultural properties in Travis County (7602 comparable) — 3× the county median of $561,432. Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $1,892,355 | $179,824 | $561,432 | $1,355,511 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2024 | $2,489,589 | $193,498 | $574,650 | $1,361,070 | ↑ Top 25% | +23.7% |
| 2023 | $1,093,932 | $150,007 | $423,072 | $1,000,412 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2022 | $1,093,932 | $166,375 | $416,994 | $932,726 | ↑ Top 25% | +46.1% |
| 2021 | $1,760,985 | $105,498 | $286,444 | $607,111 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
| Source | What it provides | Coverage for this parcel | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCAD Certified Appraisal Roll ↗ | Market, assessed, and taxable value; land/improvement split; exemptions | 2025 | Certified |
| Texas Comptroller Annual Jurisdiction Roll (AJR) | Prior-year market and taxable value | 2021–2024 | Verified |
| Travis County Rates History ↗ | Adopted tax rate for each of this parcel's taxing entities | 1990–2025 | Verified |
| TaxCurOpenData | Current-year (2025) tax billing, by taxing entity | 2025 | Partial |
| PIR bulk billing export | Prior-year tax billing, Travis County Tax Office | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | Verified |
| Satellite imagery (Esri World Imagery) | Aerial view of the parcel | Located by geocoding this parcel's address — may not resolve for every address | — |