211 GOLDEN BEAR DR TX 78738
| Owner | CUMMINGS JOHN P JR & KIMBERLY F CUM |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0129760154 |
| Short ID | 495564 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | C1 Vacant Lot |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 13,682 SF |
| Acres | 0.314 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | LOT 127 FLINTROCK AT HURST CREEK PHS 2 AMENDED PLAT OF |
| Neighborhood | R3005 |
| Land | $461,780 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $461,780 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $461,780 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $461,780 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$58,580 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $403,200 |
| Taxable Value | $403,200 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +269.4% from $125,000 (2021) to $461,780 (2025), a CAGR of 38.6% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2021→2022), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Land/Vacant parcel countywide rose +283.7%, so this parcel has lagged the broader land/vacant market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 7 taxing entities is 2.1146% in 2025 (+0.0599% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $8,526. Lake Travis ISD is the largest single contributor, at 49.2% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($403,200) is $58,580 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Land / Vacant. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($461,780 land vs $0 improvements), about $34/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $461,780, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Land/Vacant property in Travis County — county median $84,423 (P25 $24,862 / P75 $362,804, n=35,611). Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +29.9% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2026 preliminary trend, projected forward from 2026), the model projects market value near $1,705,926 by 2031, with an estimated annual tax burden around $30,995. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILT Lake Travis ISD | 1.2301% | 1.2121% | 1.0741% | 1.0656% | 1.0397% | -0.0259% | $4,192.07 | $4,192.07 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $1,515.41 | $1,515.41 | Paid |
| WFR WCID # 17 (Flintrock Ranch Estates) | 0.3422% | 0.3422% | 0.2580% | 0.2360% | 0.2650% | +0.0290% | $1,068.48 | $1,068.48 | Paid |
| CLW City of Lakeway | 0.1545% | 0.1290% | 0.1440% | 0.1598% | 0.1696% | +0.0098% | $683.99 | $683.99 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $475.87 | $475.87 | Paid |
| E06 Travis County ESD # 06 | 0.1000% | 0.0867% | 0.0831% | 0.0876% | 0.0904% | +0.0028% | $364.49 | $364.49 | Paid |
| W17 WCID # 17 | 0.0568% | 0.0543% | 0.0533% | 0.0533% | 0.0560% | +0.0027% | $225.79 | $225.79 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 2.3528% | 2.2412% | 2.0178% | 2.0547% | 2.1146% | +0.0599% | $8,526.10 | $8,526.10 | Paid |
| Entity | Tax Rate | Amount Due | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILT Lake Travis ISD | 1.0397% | $4,192.07 | 49.2% |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3758% | $1,515.41 | 17.8% |
| WFR WCID # 17 (Flintrock Ranch Estates) | 0.2650% | $1,068.48 | 12.5% |
| CLW City of Lakeway | 0.1696% | $683.99 | 8.0% |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1180% | $475.87 | 5.6% |
| E06 Travis County ESD # 06 | 0.0904% | $364.49 | 4.3% |
| W17 WCID # 17 | 0.0560% | $225.79 | 2.6% |
| Total | 2.1146% | $8,526.10 | 100.0% |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $461,780 | $461,780 | +0.0% |
| Assessed Value | $461,780 | $403,200 | +14.5% |
| Land Value | $461,780 | $461,780 | +0.0% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $461,780 | $403,200 | +14.5% |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$9,765
Estimated
|
~$8,526
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Pre | $461,780 | $461,780 | — | — | $461,780 | $461,780 | Not yet — post-cert | Preliminary |
| 2025 | $461,780 | $461,780 | — | −$58,580 | $403,200 | $403,200 | ~$8,526 | Partial |
| 2024 | $455,000 | $455,000 | — | −$119,000 | $336,000 | $336,000 | $6,904 | Verified |
| 2023 | $340,000 | $340,000 | — | — | $340,000 | $340,000 | $5,650 | Verified |
| 2022 | $340,000 | $340,000 | — | — | $340,000 | $340,000 | $6,275 | Verified |
| 2021 | $125,000 | $125,000 | — | — | $125,000 | $125,000 | $2,941 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +0.0% | +14.5% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +1.5% | +20.0% | 87.3% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +33.8% | -1.2% | 73.8% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2022 | +172.0% ! | +172.0% | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +269.4% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | +0.0% | +41.5% | +29.9% | +172.0% | 2022 | +0.0% | 2023 |
| Assessment Ratio | 100.0% | 93.5% | — | 100.0% | 2021 | 73.8% | 2024 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 1.8500% | 1.8500% | — | 1.8500% | 2025 | 1.8500% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$8,526 | $6,059 | ~$20,618 | $8,526 | 2025 | $2,941 | 2021 |
Market value changed by 172% in 2022, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ~$599,708 | ~$599,708 | ~2.0551% | ~$12,324 | +29.9% |
| 2028 | ~$778,834 | ~$778,834 | ~1.9955% | ~$15,542 | +68.7% |
| 2029 | ~$1,011,463 | ~$1,011,463 | ~1.9360% | ~$19,582 | +119.0% |
| 2030 | ~$1,313,576 | ~$1,313,576 | ~1.8764% | ~$24,648 | +184.5% |
| 2031 | ~$1,705,926 | ~$1,705,926 | ~1.8169% | ~$30,995 | +269.4% |
| 2027 | ~$590,473 | ~$590,473 | ~2.1146% | ~$12,486 | +27.9% |
| 2028 | ~$755,031 | ~$755,031 | ~2.1146% | ~$15,966 | +63.5% |
| 2029 | ~$965,449 | ~$965,449 | ~2.1146% | ~$20,415 | +109.1% |
| 2030 | ~$1,234,509 | ~$1,234,509 | ~2.1146% | ~$26,105 | +167.3% |
| 2031 | ~$1,578,553 | ~$1,578,553 | ~2.1146% | ~$33,380 | +241.8% |
| 2027 | ~$608,944 | ~$608,944 | ~2.0253% | ~$12,333 | +31.9% |
| 2028 | ~$803,008 | ~$803,008 | ~1.9360% | ~$15,546 | +73.9% |
| 2029 | ~$1,058,917 | ~$1,058,917 | ~1.8467% | ~$19,555 | +129.3% |
| 2030 | ~$1,396,382 | ~$1,396,382 | ~1.7573% | ~$24,539 | +202.4% |
| 2031 | ~$1,841,392 | ~$1,841,392 | ~1.6680% | ~$30,715 | +298.8% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $461,780 places it in the top 25% for Land/Vacant properties in Travis County (35611 comparable) — 5× the county median of $84,423. Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $461,780 | $24,862 | $84,423 | $362,804 | ↑ Top 25% | +2.1% |
| 2024 | $455,000 | $23,000 | $66,000 | $328,966 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2023 | $340,000 | $24,692 | $71,500 | $270,000 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2022 | $340,000 | $15,000 | $55,000 | $180,000 | ↑ Top 25% | +100.0% |
| 2021 | $125,000 | $8,000 | $22,000 | $81,900 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
| Source | What it provides | Coverage for this parcel | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCAD Certified Appraisal Roll ↗ | Market, assessed, and taxable value; land/improvement split; exemptions | 2025 | Certified |
| Texas Comptroller Annual Jurisdiction Roll (AJR) | Prior-year market and taxable value | 2021–2024 | Verified |
| TCAD Preliminary Export ↗ | First-look 2026 appraisal value, subject to change at certification | 2026 (exported June 9, 2026; certifies July 25, 2026) | Preliminary |
| Travis County Rates History ↗ | Adopted tax rate for each of this parcel's taxing entities | 1990–2025 | Verified |
| TaxCurOpenData | Current-year (2025) tax billing, by taxing entity | 2025 | Partial |
| PIR bulk billing export | Prior-year tax billing, Travis County Tax Office | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | Verified |
| Satellite imagery (Esri World Imagery) | Aerial view of the parcel | Located by geocoding this parcel's address — may not resolve for every address | — |