3809 SERENE HILLS DR TX 78738
| Owner | KELLER JOHN C & M PAGE |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0131800124 |
| Short ID | 127798 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | C1 Vacant Lot |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 98,010 SF |
| Acres | 2.250 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | LOT 32 (2.250ACR) MAJESTIC HILLS RANCHETTES |
| Neighborhood | R3014 |
| Land | $841,500 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $841,500 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $841,500 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $841,500 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$599,309 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $242,191 |
| Taxable Value | $242,191 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +379.5% from $175,499 (2021) to $841,500 (2025), a CAGR of 48.0% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2023→2024), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Land/Vacant parcel countywide rose +283.7%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader land/vacant market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 4 taxing entities is 1.6240% in 2025 (+0.0184% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $3,933. Lake Travis ISD is the largest single contributor, at 64.0% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($242,191) is $599,309 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Land / Vacant. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($841,500 land vs $0 improvements), about $9/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $841,500, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Land/Vacant property in Travis County — county median $84,423 (P25 $24,862 / P75 $362,804, n=35,611). Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +36.8% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2026 preliminary trend, projected forward from 2026), the model projects market value near $4,034,908 by 2031, with an estimated annual tax burden around $56,683. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILT Lake Travis ISD | 1.2301% | 1.2121% | 1.0741% | 1.0656% | 1.0397% | -0.0259% | $2,518.06 | $2,518.06 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $910.26 | $910.26 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $285.84 | $285.84 | Paid |
| E06 Travis County ESD # 06 | 0.1000% | 0.0867% | 0.0831% | 0.0876% | 0.0904% | +0.0028% | $218.94 | $218.94 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 1.7993% | 1.7157% | 1.5625% | 1.6056% | 1.6240% | +0.0184% | $3,933.10 | $3,933.10 | Paid |
| Entity | Tax Rate | Amount Due | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILT Lake Travis ISD | 1.0397% | $2,518.06 | 64.0% |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3758% | $910.26 | 23.1% |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1180% | $285.84 | 7.3% |
| E06 Travis County ESD # 06 | 0.0904% | $218.94 | 5.6% |
| Total | 1.6240% | $3,933.10 | 100.0% |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $841,500 | $841,500 | +0.0% |
| Assessed Value | $290,629 | $242,191 | +20.0% |
| Land Value | $841,500 | $841,500 | +0.0% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $290,629 | $242,191 | +20.0% |
| HS Cap Loss | -$550,871 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$4,720
Estimated
|
~$3,933
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Pre | $841,500 | $841,500 | — | −$550,871 | $290,629 | $290,629 | Not yet — post-cert | Preliminary |
| 2025 | $841,500 | $841,500 | — | −$599,309 | $242,191 | $242,191 | ~$3,933 | Partial |
| 2024 | $841,500 | $841,500 | — | −$639,674 | $201,826 | $201,826 | $3,241 | Verified |
| 2023 | $168,188 | $168,188 | — | — | $168,188 | $168,188 | $2,628 | Verified |
| 2022 | $168,188 | $168,188 | — | — | $168,188 | $168,188 | $2,886 | Verified |
| 2021 | $175,499 | $175,499 | — | — | $175,499 | $175,499 | $3,158 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +0.0% | +20.0% | 34.5% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +0.0% | +20.0% | 28.8% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +400.3% ! | +20.0% | 24.0% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2022 | -4.2% | -4.2% | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +379.5% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | +0.0% | +79.2% | +36.8% | +400.3% | 2024 | -4.2% | 2022 |
| Assessment Ratio | 34.5% | 64.5% | — | 100.0% | 2021 | 24.0% | 2024 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.4700% | 0.4700% | — | 0.4700% | 2025 | 0.4700% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$3,933 | $3,169 | ~$34,794 | $3,933 | 2025 | $2,628 | 2023 |
Market value changed by 400% in 2024, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ~$1,151,357 | ~$1,151,357 | ~1.5801% | ~$18,193 | +36.8% |
| 2028 | ~$1,575,310 | ~$1,575,310 | ~1.5363% | ~$24,202 | +87.2% |
| 2029 | ~$2,155,370 | ~$2,155,370 | ~1.4925% | ~$32,169 | +156.1% |
| 2030 | ~$2,949,020 | ~$2,949,020 | ~1.4487% | ~$42,721 | +250.4% |
| 2031 | ~$4,034,908 | ~$4,034,908 | ~1.4048% | ~$56,683 | +379.5% |
| 2027 | ~$1,134,527 | ~$1,134,527 | ~1.6240% | ~$18,424 | +34.8% |
| 2028 | ~$1,529,592 | ~$1,529,592 | ~1.6240% | ~$24,840 | +81.8% |
| 2029 | ~$2,062,226 | ~$2,062,226 | ~1.6240% | ~$33,490 | +145.1% |
| 2030 | ~$2,780,334 | ~$2,780,334 | ~1.6240% | ~$45,152 | +230.4% |
| 2031 | ~$3,748,502 | ~$3,748,502 | ~1.6240% | ~$60,874 | +345.5% |
| 2027 | ~$1,168,187 | ~$1,168,187 | ~1.5582% | ~$18,203 | +38.8% |
| 2028 | ~$1,621,700 | ~$1,621,700 | ~1.4925% | ~$24,204 | +92.7% |
| 2029 | ~$2,251,277 | ~$2,251,277 | ~1.4267% | ~$32,120 | +167.5% |
| 2030 | ~$3,125,267 | ~$3,125,267 | ~1.3610% | ~$42,535 | +271.4% |
| 2031 | ~$4,338,558 | ~$4,338,558 | ~1.2953% | ~$56,195 | +415.6% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $841,500 places it in the top 25% for Land/Vacant properties in Travis County (35611 comparable) — 10× the county median of $84,423. Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $841,500 | $24,862 | $84,423 | $362,804 | ↑ Top 25% | +2.1% |
| 2024 | $841,500 | $23,000 | $66,000 | $328,966 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2023 | $168,188 | $24,692 | $71,500 | $270,000 | ↑ Above median | +0.0% |
| 2022 | $168,188 | $15,000 | $55,000 | $180,000 | ↑ Above median | +100.0% |
| 2021 | $175,499 | $8,000 | $22,000 | $81,900 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
| Source | What it provides | Coverage for this parcel | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCAD Certified Appraisal Roll ↗ | Market, assessed, and taxable value; land/improvement split; exemptions | 2025 | Certified |
| Texas Comptroller Annual Jurisdiction Roll (AJR) | Prior-year market and taxable value | 2021–2024 | Verified |
| TCAD Preliminary Export ↗ | First-look 2026 appraisal value, subject to change at certification | 2026 (exported June 9, 2026; certifies July 25, 2026) | Preliminary |
| Travis County Rates History ↗ | Adopted tax rate for each of this parcel's taxing entities | 1990–2025 | Verified |
| TaxCurOpenData | Current-year (2025) tax billing, by taxing entity | 2025 | Partial |
| PIR bulk billing export | Prior-year tax billing, Travis County Tax Office | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | Verified |
| Satellite imagery (Esri World Imagery) | Aerial view of the parcel | Located by geocoding this parcel's address — may not resolve for every address | — |