106 COLD WATER LN TX 78734
| Owner | ROSE WILLIAM S & PAULA |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0137730603 |
| Short ID | 134940 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | C1 Vacant Lot |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 29,673 SF |
| Acres | 0.681 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | LOT 2848 LAKEWAY SEC 22-C |
| Neighborhood | R2005 |
| Land | $317,321 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $317,321 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $317,321 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $317,321 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) | — |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $317,321 |
| Taxable Value | $317,321 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +203.2% from $104,650 (2021) to $317,321 (2025), a CAGR of 32.0% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2022→2023), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Land/Vacant parcel countywide rose +283.7%, so this parcel has lagged the broader land/vacant market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 6 taxing entities is 1.8467% in 2025 (+0.0282% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $5,860. Lake Travis ISD is the largest single contributor, at 56.3% of the total 2025 levy.
Asset Class: Land / Vacant. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($317,321 land vs $0 improvements), about $11/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $317,321, this parcel sits in the upper-middle (50th–75th percentile) of Land/Vacant property in Travis County — county median $84,423 (P25 $24,862 / P75 $362,804, n=35,611). Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +24.8% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2026 preliminary trend, projected forward from 2026), the model projects market value near $962,185 by 2031, with an estimated annual tax burden around $15,492. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILT Lake Travis ISD | 1.2301% | 1.2121% | 1.0741% | 1.0656% | 1.0397% | -0.0259% | $2,700.02 | $2,700.02 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $976.04 | $976.04 | Paid |
| CLW City of Lakeway | 0.1545% | 0.1290% | 0.1440% | 0.1598% | 0.1696% | +0.0098% | $440.54 | $440.54 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $306.50 | $306.50 | Paid |
| E06 Travis County ESD # 06 | 0.1000% | 0.0867% | 0.0831% | 0.0876% | 0.0904% | +0.0028% | $234.76 | $234.76 | Paid |
| U26 Lakeway MUD | 0.0822% | 0.0631% | 0.0531% | 0.0531% | 0.0531% | +0.0000% | $137.90 | $137.90 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 2.0360% | 1.9078% | 1.7596% | 1.8185% | 1.8467% | +0.0282% | $4,795.76 | $4,795.76 | Paid |
| Entity | Tax Rate | Amount Due | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILT Lake Travis ISD | 1.0397% | $2,700.02 | 56.3% |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3758% | $976.04 | 20.4% |
| CLW City of Lakeway | 0.1696% | $440.54 | 9.2% |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1180% | $306.50 | 6.4% |
| E06 Travis County ESD # 06 | 0.0904% | $234.76 | 4.9% |
| U26 Lakeway MUD | 0.0531% | $137.90 | 2.9% |
| Total | 1.8467% | $4,795.76 | 100.0% |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $317,321 | $317,321 | +0.0% |
| Assessed Value | $311,630 | $317,321 | -1.8% |
| Land Value | $317,321 | $317,321 | +0.0% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $311,630 | $317,321 | -1.8% |
| HS Cap Loss | -$5,691 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$5,755
Estimated
|
~$4,796
Partial
|
|
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Pre | $317,321 | $317,321 | — | −$5,691 | $311,630 | $311,630 | Not yet — post-cert | Preliminary |
| 2025 | $317,321 | $317,321 | — | — | $317,321 | $317,321 | ~$4,796 | Partial |
| 2024 | $316,250 | $316,250 | — | −$47,450 | $268,800 | $268,800 | $4,888 | Verified |
| 2023 | $431,250 | $431,250 | — | — | $431,250 | $431,250 | $3,942 | Verified |
| 2022 | $171,668 | $431,250 | — | — | $171,668 | $171,668 | $3,275 | Verified |
| 2021 | $104,650 | $104,650 | — | — | $104,650 | $104,650 | $1,914 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +0.0% | -1.8% | 98.2% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +0.3% | +18.1% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | -26.7% | -37.7% | 85.0% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2023 | +151.2% ! | +151.2% | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2022 | +64.0% | +64.0% | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +203.2% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | +0.0% | +37.8% | +24.8% | +151.2% | 2023 | -26.7% | 2024 |
| Assessment Ratio | 98.2% | 97.2% | — | 100.0% | 2021 | 85.0% | 2024 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 1.5100% | 1.5100% | — | 1.5100% | 2025 | 1.5100% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$4,796 | $3,763 | ~$10,917 | $4,888 | 2024 | $1,914 | 2021 |
Market value changed by 151% in 2023, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ~$396,142 | ~$396,142 | ~1.7994% | ~$7,128 | +24.8% |
| 2028 | ~$494,541 | ~$494,541 | ~1.7521% | ~$8,665 | +55.8% |
| 2029 | ~$617,383 | ~$617,383 | ~1.7048% | ~$10,525 | +94.6% |
| 2030 | ~$770,737 | ~$770,737 | ~1.6574% | ~$12,774 | +142.9% |
| 2031 | ~$962,185 | ~$962,185 | ~1.6101% | ~$15,492 | +203.2% |
| 2027 | ~$389,795 | ~$389,795 | ~1.8467% | ~$7,198 | +22.8% |
| 2028 | ~$478,823 | ~$478,823 | ~1.8467% | ~$8,842 | +50.9% |
| 2029 | ~$588,183 | ~$588,183 | ~1.8467% | ~$10,862 | +85.4% |
| 2030 | ~$722,521 | ~$722,521 | ~1.8467% | ~$13,343 | +127.7% |
| 2031 | ~$887,541 | ~$887,541 | ~1.8467% | ~$16,390 | +179.7% |
| 2027 | ~$402,488 | ~$402,488 | ~1.7757% | ~$7,147 | +26.8% |
| 2028 | ~$510,514 | ~$510,514 | ~1.7048% | ~$8,703 | +60.9% |
| 2029 | ~$647,533 | ~$647,533 | ~1.6338% | ~$10,579 | +104.1% |
| 2030 | ~$821,328 | ~$821,328 | ~1.5628% | ~$12,836 | +158.8% |
| 2031 | ~$1,041,768 | ~$1,041,768 | ~1.4918% | ~$15,541 | +228.3% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $317,321 places it in the 50th–75th percentile for Land/Vacant properties in Travis County (35611 comparable) — 4× the county median of $84,423. Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $317,321 | $24,862 | $84,423 | $362,804 | ↑ Above median | +2.1% |
| 2024 | $316,250 | $23,000 | $66,000 | $328,966 | ↑ Above median | +0.0% |
| 2023 | $431,250 | $24,692 | $71,500 | $270,000 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2022 | $171,668 | $15,000 | $55,000 | $180,000 | ↑ Above median | +100.0% |
| 2021 | $104,650 | $8,000 | $22,000 | $81,900 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
| Source | What it provides | Coverage for this parcel | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCAD Certified Appraisal Roll ↗ | Market, assessed, and taxable value; land/improvement split; exemptions | 2025 | Certified |
| Texas Comptroller Annual Jurisdiction Roll (AJR) | Prior-year market and taxable value | 2021–2024 | Verified |
| TCAD Preliminary Export ↗ | First-look 2026 appraisal value, subject to change at certification | 2026 (exported June 9, 2026; certifies July 25, 2026) | Preliminary |
| Travis County Rates History ↗ | Adopted tax rate for each of this parcel's taxing entities | 1990–2025 | Verified |
| TaxCurOpenData | Current-year (2025) tax billing, by taxing entity | 2025 | Partial |
| PIR bulk billing export | Prior-year tax billing, Travis County Tax Office | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | Verified |
| Satellite imagery (Esri World Imagery) | Aerial view of the parcel | Coordinates cached from a prior lookup | — |