21307 CARDINAL AVE TX 78645
| Owner | CARLISLE KATELYN MARY |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0160900635 |
| Short ID | 159871 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | C1 Vacant Lot |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 28,562 SF |
| Acres | 0.656 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | LOT 4 BLK C EMERALD BEND SEC 1 |
| Neighborhood | S04WF |
| Land | $494,000 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $494,000 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $494,000 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $494,000 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$5,600 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $488,400 |
| Taxable Value | $488,400 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +261.9% from $136,500 (2021) to $494,000 (2025), a CAGR of 37.9% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Growth has been fairly evenly spread across these years rather than concentrated in one jump. Over the same span, the median Land/Vacant parcel countywide rose +283.7%, so this parcel has lagged the broader land/vacant market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 6 taxing entities is 2.1307% in 2025 (+0.0473% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $10,407. Lago Vista ISD is the largest single contributor, at 47.7% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($488,400) is $5,600 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Land / Vacant. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($494,000 land vs $0 improvements), about $17/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $494,000, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Land/Vacant property in Travis County — county median $84,423 (P25 $24,862 / P75 $362,804, n=35,611). Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +8.8% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2026 preliminary trend, projected forward from 2026), the model projects market value near $316,952 by 2031, with an estimated annual tax burden around $5,377. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILV Lago Vista ISD | 1.2020% | 1.1846% | 1.0192% | 1.0169% | 1.0169% | +0.0000% | $4,966.54 | $4,966.54 | Paid |
| CLV City of Lago Vista | 0.6070% | 0.4283% | 0.4139% | 0.4231% | 0.4200% | -0.0031% | $2,051.28 | $2,051.28 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $1,835.63 | $1,835.63 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $576.42 | $576.42 | Paid |
| E01 Travis County ESD # 01 | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | +0.0000% | $488.40 | $488.40 | Paid |
| E07 Travis County ESD # 07 | 0.1000% | 0.0784% | 0.0842% | 0.0910% | 0.1000% | +0.0090% | $488.24 | $488.24 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 2.4782% | 2.2082% | 2.0226% | 2.0834% | 2.1307% | +0.0473% | $10,406.51 | $10,406.51 | Paid |
| Entity | Tax Rate | Amount Due | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILV Lago Vista ISD | 1.0169% | $4,966.54 | 47.7% |
| CLV City of Lago Vista | 0.4200% | $2,051.28 | 19.7% |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3758% | $1,835.63 | 17.6% |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1180% | $576.42 | 5.5% |
| E01 Travis County ESD # 01 | 0.1000% | $488.40 | 4.7% |
| E07 Travis County ESD # 07 | 0.1000% | $488.24 | 4.7% |
| Total | 2.1307% | $10,406.51 | 100.0% |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $208,000 | $494,000 | -57.9% |
| Assessed Value | $208,000 | $488,400 | -57.4% |
| Land Value | $208,000 | $494,000 | -57.9% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $208,000 | $488,400 | -57.4% |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$4,432
Estimated
|
~$10,407
Partial
|
|
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Pre | $208,000 | $208,000 | — | — | $208,000 | $208,000 | Not yet — post-cert | Preliminary |
| 2025 | $494,000 | $494,000 | — | −$5,600 | $488,400 | $488,400 | ~$10,407 | Partial |
| 2024 | $494,000 | $494,000 | — | −$57,200 | $436,800 | $436,800 | $8,479 | Verified |
| 2023 | $364,000 | $364,000 | — | — | $364,000 | $364,000 | $7,362 | Verified |
| 2022 | $364,000 | $364,000 | — | — | $364,000 | $364,000 | $8,038 | Verified |
| 2021 | $136,500 | $136,500 | — | — | $136,500 | $136,500 | $3,383 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -57.9% | -57.4% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +0.0% | +11.8% | 98.9% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +35.7% | +20.0% | 88.4% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2022 | +166.7% ! | +166.7% | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +261.9% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -57.9% | +28.9% | +8.8% | +166.7% | 2022 | -57.9% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 100.0% | 97.9% | — | 100.0% | 2021 | 88.4% | 2024 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 2.1100% | 2.1100% | — | 2.1100% | 2025 | 2.1100% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$10,407 | $7,534 | ~$5,005 | $10,407 | 2025 | $3,383 | 2021 |
Market value changed by 167% in 2022, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ~$226,282 | ~$226,282 | ~2.0439% | ~$4,625 | +8.8% |
| 2028 | ~$246,170 | ~$246,170 | ~1.9570% | ~$4,818 | +18.4% |
| 2029 | ~$267,807 | ~$267,807 | ~1.8702% | ~$5,008 | +28.8% |
| 2030 | ~$291,345 | ~$291,345 | ~1.7833% | ~$5,196 | +40.1% |
| 2031 | ~$316,952 | ~$316,952 | ~1.6964% | ~$5,377 | +52.4% |
| 2027 | ~$222,122 | ~$222,122 | ~2.1307% | ~$4,733 | +6.8% |
| 2028 | ~$237,202 | ~$237,202 | ~2.1307% | ~$5,054 | +14.0% |
| 2029 | ~$253,307 | ~$253,307 | ~2.1307% | ~$5,397 | +21.8% |
| 2030 | ~$270,504 | ~$270,504 | ~2.1307% | ~$5,764 | +30.0% |
| 2031 | ~$288,870 | ~$288,870 | ~2.1307% | ~$6,155 | +38.9% |
| 2027 | ~$230,442 | ~$230,442 | ~2.0004% | ~$4,610 | +10.8% |
| 2028 | ~$255,305 | ~$255,305 | ~1.8702% | ~$4,775 | +22.7% |
| 2029 | ~$282,850 | ~$282,850 | ~1.7399% | ~$4,921 | +36.0% |
| 2030 | ~$313,368 | ~$313,368 | ~1.6096% | ~$5,044 | +50.7% |
| 2031 | ~$347,178 | ~$347,178 | ~1.4793% | ~$5,136 | +66.9% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $494,000 places it in the top 25% for Land/Vacant properties in Travis County (35611 comparable) — 6× the county median of $84,423. Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $494,000 | $24,862 | $84,423 | $362,804 | ↑ Top 25% | +2.1% |
| 2024 | $494,000 | $23,000 | $66,000 | $328,966 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2023 | $364,000 | $24,692 | $71,500 | $270,000 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2022 | $364,000 | $15,000 | $55,000 | $180,000 | ↑ Top 25% | +100.0% |
| 2021 | $136,500 | $8,000 | $22,000 | $81,900 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
| Source | What it provides | Coverage for this parcel | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCAD Certified Appraisal Roll ↗ | Market, assessed, and taxable value; land/improvement split; exemptions | 2025 | Certified |
| Texas Comptroller Annual Jurisdiction Roll (AJR) | Prior-year market and taxable value | 2021–2024 | Verified |
| TCAD Preliminary Export ↗ | First-look 2026 appraisal value, subject to change at certification | 2026 (exported June 9, 2026; certifies July 25, 2026) | Preliminary |
| Travis County Rates History ↗ | Adopted tax rate for each of this parcel's taxing entities | 1990–2025 | Verified |
| TaxCurOpenData | Current-year (2025) tax billing, by taxing entity | 2025 | Partial |
| PIR bulk billing export | Prior-year tax billing, Travis County Tax Office | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | Verified |
| Satellite imagery (Esri World Imagery) | Aerial view of the parcel | Located by geocoding this parcel's address — may not resolve for every address | — |