BLUE GOOSE RD TX 78754
| Owner | BFI WASTE SYSTEMS OF NORTH AMERICA LLC |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0234310503 |
| Short ID | 236639 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | F1 Commercial Real Property (Improved) |
| Valuation | Income |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 7,525,399 SF |
| Acres | 172.759 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | ABS 513 SUR 55 MUNOS L ACR 172.7594 |
| Neighborhood | 3DUMP |
| Land | $3,762,700 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $3,762,700 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $3,762,700 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $3,762,700 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$1,956,605 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $1,806,095 |
| Taxable Value | $1,806,095 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +221.5% from $1,170,272 (2021) to $3,762,700 (2025), a CAGR of 33.9% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2022→2023), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Commercial parcel countywide rose +17.8%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader commercial market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 5 taxing entities is 1.7053% in 2025 (+0.0402% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $30,799. Manor ISD is the largest single contributor, at 63.4% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($1,806,095) is $1,956,605 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Commercial. No homestead exemptions apply — full market value is taxable. This is valued using the income approach, so changes in rent roll or occupancy move the appraisal more directly than they would for a cost-approach property.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($3,762,700 land vs $0 improvements), about $1/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $3,762,700, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Commercial property in Travis County — county median $1,382,921 (P25 $632,506 / P75 $3,258,143, n=13,595). Commercial here is the broad TCAD category — every commercial property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +26.3% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2026 preliminary trend, projected forward from 2026), the model projects market value near $12,097,966 by 2031, with an estimated annual tax burden around $160,828. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMA Manor ISD | 1.3520% | 1.3520% | 1.0861% | 1.0814% | 1.0814% | +0.0000% | $19,531.11 | $19,531.11 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $6,788.12 | $6,788.12 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $2,131.61 | $2,131.61 | Paid |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1048% | 0.0987% | 0.0986% | 0.1013% | 0.1034% | +0.0021% | $1,867.50 | $1,867.50 | Paid |
| E04 Travis County ESD # 04 | 0.0800% | 0.0600% | 0.0400% | 0.0300% | 0.0266% | -0.0034% | $480.42 | $480.42 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 2.0060% | 1.9276% | 1.6300% | 1.6651% | 1.7053% | +0.0402% | $30,798.76 | $30,798.76 | Paid |
| Entity | Tax Rate | Amount Due | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| IMA Manor ISD | 1.0814% | $19,531.11 | 63.4% |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3758% | $6,788.12 | 22.0% |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1180% | $2,131.61 | 6.9% |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1034% | $1,867.50 | 6.1% |
| E04 Travis County ESD # 04 | 0.0266% | $480.42 | 1.6% |
| Total | 1.7053% | $30,798.76 | 100.0% |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $3,762,700 | $3,762,700 | +0.0% |
| Assessed Value | $2,167,314 | $1,806,095 | +20.0% |
| Land Value | $3,762,700 | $3,762,700 | +0.0% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $2,167,314 | $1,806,095 | +20.0% |
| HS Cap Loss | -$1,595,386 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$36,959
Estimated
|
~$30,799
Partial
|
|
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Pre | $3,762,700 | $3,762,700 | — | −$1,595,386 | $2,167,314 | $2,167,314 | Not yet — post-cert | Preliminary |
| 2025 | $3,762,700 | $3,762,700 | — | −$1,956,605 | $1,806,095 | $1,806,095 | ~$30,799 | Partial |
| 2024 | $1,505,079 | $3,762,700 | — | — | $1,505,079 | $1,505,079 | $25,061 | Verified |
| 2023 | $3,762,700 | $3,762,700 | — | — | $3,762,700 | $3,762,700 | $24,533 | Verified |
| 2022 | $1,170,272 | $1,170,272 | — | — | $1,170,272 | $1,170,272 | $22,558 | Verified |
| 2021 | $1,170,272 | $1,170,272 | — | — | $1,170,272 | $1,170,272 | $23,475 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +0.0% | +20.0% | 57.6% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +150.0% ! | +20.0% | 48.0% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | -60.0% | -60.0% | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2023 | +221.5% ! | +221.5% | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2022 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +221.5% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | +0.0% | +62.3% | +26.3% | +221.5% | 2023 | -60.0% | 2024 |
| Assessment Ratio | 57.6% | 84.3% | — | 100.0% | 2021 | 48.0% | 2025 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.8200% | 0.8200% | — | 0.8200% | 2025 | 0.8200% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$30,799 | $25,285 | ~$115,676 | $30,799 | 2025 | $22,558 | 2022 |
Market value changed by 222% in 2023, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ~$4,752,719 | ~$4,752,719 | ~1.6301% | ~$77,474 | +26.3% |
| 2028 | ~$6,003,226 | ~$6,003,226 | ~1.5549% | ~$93,345 | +59.5% |
| 2029 | ~$7,582,759 | ~$7,582,759 | ~1.4797% | ~$112,205 | +101.5% |
| 2030 | ~$9,577,889 | ~$9,577,889 | ~1.4046% | ~$134,527 | +154.5% |
| 2031 | ~$12,097,966 | ~$12,097,966 | ~1.3294% | ~$160,828 | +221.5% |
| 2027 | ~$4,677,465 | ~$4,677,465 | ~1.7053% | ~$79,763 | +24.3% |
| 2028 | ~$5,814,622 | ~$5,814,622 | ~1.7053% | ~$99,155 | +54.5% |
| 2029 | ~$7,228,239 | ~$7,228,239 | ~1.7053% | ~$123,261 | +92.1% |
| 2030 | ~$8,985,525 | ~$8,985,525 | ~1.7053% | ~$153,227 | +138.8% |
| 2031 | ~$11,170,032 | ~$11,170,032 | ~1.7053% | ~$190,479 | +196.9% |
| 2027 | ~$4,827,973 | ~$4,827,973 | ~1.5925% | ~$76,886 | +28.3% |
| 2028 | ~$6,194,840 | ~$6,194,840 | ~1.4797% | ~$91,667 | +64.6% |
| 2029 | ~$7,948,686 | ~$7,948,686 | ~1.3670% | ~$108,656 | +111.2% |
| 2030 | ~$10,199,071 | ~$10,199,071 | ~1.2542% | ~$127,917 | +171.1% |
| 2031 | ~$13,086,570 | ~$13,086,570 | ~1.1414% | ~$149,375 | +247.8% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $3,762,700 places it in the top 25% for Commercial properties in Travis County (13595 comparable) — +172% above the county median of $1,382,921. Commercial here is the broad TCAD category — every commercial property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $3,762,700 | $632,506 | $1,382,921 | $3,258,143 | ↑ Top 25% | -0.8% |
| 2024 | $1,505,079 | $647,500 | $1,401,787 | $3,362,090 | ↑ Above median | +0.0% |
| 2023 | $3,762,700 | $651,680 | $1,383,015 | $3,277,245 | ↑ Top 25% | +9.7% |
| 2022 | $1,170,272 | $535,964 | $1,190,250 | $2,842,216 | ↓ Below median | +3.3% |
| 2021 | $1,170,272 | $538,645 | $1,173,514 | $2,782,974 | ↓ Below median | base yr |
| Source | What it provides | Coverage for this parcel | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCAD Certified Appraisal Roll ↗ | Market, assessed, and taxable value; land/improvement split; exemptions | 2025 | Certified |
| Texas Comptroller Annual Jurisdiction Roll (AJR) | Prior-year market and taxable value | 2021–2024 | Verified |
| TCAD Preliminary Export ↗ | First-look 2026 appraisal value, subject to change at certification | 2026 (exported June 9, 2026; certifies July 25, 2026) | Preliminary |
| Travis County Rates History ↗ | Adopted tax rate for each of this parcel's taxing entities | 1990–2025 | Verified |
| TaxCurOpenData | Current-year (2025) tax billing, by taxing entity | 2025 | Partial |
| PIR bulk billing export | Prior-year tax billing, Travis County Tax Office | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | Verified |
| Satellite imagery (Esri World Imagery) | Aerial view of the parcel | Located by geocoding this parcel's address — may not resolve for every address | — |