14500 LUND CARLSON RD TX 78615
| Owner | HOLMES FRANK A JR & DEBORAH S |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0267990112 |
| Short ID | 444374 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | 00 (unlisted) |
| Valuation | Productivity |
| Improvement SF | 1 SF |
| Land SF | 3,663,962 SF |
| Acres | 84.113 |
| Year Built | 2007 |
| Legal | ABS 655 SUR 66 RODRIGUEZ P ACR 84.113 (1-D-1) |
| Neighborhood | _RGN320 |
| Land | $2,941,056 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $2,941,056 |
| Improvement | $41,523 |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | $41,523 |
| Market | $2,982,579 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $2,982,579 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$2,913,880 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $68,699 |
| Taxable Value | $68,699 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +352.0% from $659,808 (2021) to $2,982,579 (2025), a CAGR of 45.8% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2023→2024), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Agricultural parcel countywide rose +96.0%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader agricultural market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 4 taxing entities is 0.6973% in 2025 (+0.0436% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $479. Travis County is the largest single contributor, at 53.9% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($68,699) is $2,913,880 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Agricultural. Agricultural valuation may be subject to rollback taxes if land use changes.
Value Composition: Land carries 99% of market value ($2,941,056 land vs $41,523 improvements), about $1/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $2,982,579, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Agricultural property in Travis County — county median $561,432 (P25 $179,824 / P75 $1,355,511, n=7,602). Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +27.6% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2022–2026 preliminary trend, projected forward from 2026), the model projects market value near $8,626,402 by 2031, with an estimated annual tax burden around $62,660. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
3 components · show ▾hide ▴
| Code | Description | SF | In Gross |
|---|---|---|---|
| 301 | BARN SF | 1,800 SF | ✓ |
| 061 | CARPORT ATT 1ST | 1,200 SF | ✗ |
| 1ST | 1st Floor | 1 SF | ✓ |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $258.20 | $258.20 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $81.08 | $81.08 | Paid |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1048% | 0.0987% | 0.0986% | 0.1013% | 0.1034% | +0.0021% | $71.03 | $71.03 | Paid |
| E13 Travis County ESD # 13 | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | +0.0000% | $68.70 | $68.70 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 0.6740% | 0.6156% | 0.6039% | 0.6537% | 0.6973% | +0.0436% | $479.01 | $479.01 | Paid |
| Entity | Tax Rate | Amount Due | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCO Travis County | 0.3758% | $258.20 | 53.9% |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1180% | $81.08 | 16.9% |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1034% | $71.03 | 14.8% |
| E13 Travis County ESD # 13 | 0.1000% | $68.70 | 14.3% |
| Total | 0.6973% | $479.01 | 100.0% |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $2,553,420 | $2,982,579 | -14.4% |
| Assessed Value | $57,915 | $68,699 | -15.7% |
| Land Value | $2,523,390 | $2,941,056 | -14.2% |
| Improvement Value | $30,030 | $41,523 | -27.7% |
| Taxable Value | $57,915 | $68,699 | -15.7% |
| HS Cap Loss | -$2,495,505 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$404
Estimated
|
~$479
Partial
|
|
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Pre | $2,553,420 | $2,523,390 | $30,030 | −$2,495,505 | $57,915 | $57,915 | Not yet — post-cert | Preliminary |
| 2025 | $2,982,579 | $2,941,056 | $41,523 | −$2,913,880 | $68,699 | $68,699 | ~$479 | Partial |
| 2024 | $2,983,691 | $2,941,056 | $42,635 | −$2,916,188 | $67,503 | $67,503 | $441 | Verified |
| 2023 | $964,176 | $919,687 | $44,489 | −$892,074 | $72,102 | $72,102 | $435 | Verified |
| 2022 | $964,176 | $919,687 | $44,489 | −$891,499 | $72,677 | $72,677 | $447 | Verified |
| 2021 | $659,808 | — | $41,523 | −$589,544 | $70,264 | $70,264 | $474 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -14.4% | -15.7% | 2.3% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | -0.0% | +1.8% | 2.3% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +209.5% ! | -6.4% | 2.3% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | -0.8% | 7.5% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2022 | +46.1% | +3.4% | 7.5% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | 10.6% | No billing data | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +352.0% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -14.4% | +48.2% | +27.6% | +209.5% | 2024 | -14.4% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 2.3% | 5.4% | — | 10.6% | 2021 | 2.3% | 2024 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.0200% | 0.0200% | — | 0.0200% | 2025 | 0.0200% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$479 | $455 | ~$40,327 | $479 | 2025 | $435 | 2023 |
Market value changed by 209% in 2024, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ~$3,257,345 | ~$3,257,345 | ~0.7031% | ~$22,902 | +27.6% |
| 2028 | ~$4,155,327 | ~$4,155,327 | ~0.7089% | ~$29,458 | +62.7% |
| 2029 | ~$5,300,865 | ~$5,300,865 | ~0.7147% | ~$37,887 | +107.6% |
| 2030 | ~$6,762,203 | ~$6,762,203 | ~0.7206% | ~$48,726 | +164.8% |
| 2031 | ~$8,626,402 | ~$8,626,402 | ~0.7264% | ~$62,660 | +237.8% |
| 2027 | ~$3,206,276 | ~$3,206,276 | ~0.6973% | ~$22,356 | +25.6% |
| 2028 | ~$4,026,055 | ~$4,026,055 | ~0.6973% | ~$28,072 | +57.7% |
| 2029 | ~$5,055,433 | ~$5,055,433 | ~0.6973% | ~$35,250 | +98.0% |
| 2030 | ~$6,348,003 | ~$6,348,003 | ~0.6973% | ~$44,263 | +148.6% |
| 2031 | ~$7,971,055 | ~$7,971,055 | ~0.6973% | ~$55,580 | +212.2% |
| 2027 | ~$3,308,413 | ~$3,308,413 | ~0.7060% | ~$23,357 | +29.6% |
| 2028 | ~$4,286,642 | ~$4,286,642 | ~0.7147% | ~$30,638 | +67.9% |
| 2029 | ~$5,554,113 | ~$5,554,113 | ~0.7235% | ~$40,182 | +117.5% |
| 2030 | ~$7,196,349 | ~$7,196,349 | ~0.7322% | ~$52,692 | +181.8% |
| 2031 | ~$9,324,161 | ~$9,324,161 | ~0.7409% | ~$69,086 | +265.2% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $2,982,579 places it in the top 25% for Agricultural properties in Travis County (7602 comparable) — 5× the county median of $561,432. Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $2,982,579 | $179,824 | $561,432 | $1,355,511 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2024 | $2,983,691 | $193,498 | $574,650 | $1,361,070 | ↑ Top 25% | +23.7% |
| 2023 | $964,176 | $150,007 | $423,072 | $1,000,412 | ↑ Above median | +0.0% |
| 2022 | $964,176 | $166,375 | $416,994 | $932,726 | ↑ Top 25% | +46.1% |
| 2021 | $659,808 | $105,498 | $286,444 | $607,111 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
| Source | What it provides | Coverage for this parcel | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCAD Certified Appraisal Roll ↗ | Market, assessed, and taxable value; land/improvement split; exemptions | 2025 | Certified |
| Texas Comptroller Annual Jurisdiction Roll (AJR) | Prior-year market and taxable value | 2021–2024 | Verified |
| TCAD Preliminary Export ↗ | First-look 2026 appraisal value, subject to change at certification | 2026 (exported June 9, 2026; certifies July 25, 2026) | Preliminary |
| Travis County Rates History ↗ | Adopted tax rate for each of this parcel's taxing entities | 1990–2025 | Verified |
| TaxCurOpenData | Current-year (2025) tax billing, by taxing entity | 2025 | Partial |
| PIR bulk billing export | Prior-year tax billing, Travis County Tax Office | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | Verified |
| Satellite imagery (Esri World Imagery) | Aerial view of the parcel | Located by geocoding this parcel's address — may not resolve for every address | — |