16461 LUCKY HIT RD TX 78641
| Owner | MOONEY PATRICK & JENNIFER |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0525670407 |
| Short ID | 354830 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | C1 Vacant Lot |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 1,119,666 SF |
| Acres | 25.704 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | LOT 22-A GREAT OAKS ESTATES AMENDED PLAT OF LOTS 22-25 & 27 |
| Neighborhood | T2690 |
| Land | $771,120 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $771,120 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $771,120 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $771,120 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) | — |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $771,120 |
| Taxable Value | $771,120 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +275.0% from $205,610 (2021) to $771,120 (2025), a CAGR of 39.2% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2021→2022), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Land/Vacant parcel countywide rose +283.7%, so this parcel has lagged the broader land/vacant market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 6 taxing entities is 1.8841% in 2025 (+0.0525% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $14,529. Leander ISD is the largest single contributor, at 57.7% of the total 2025 levy.
Asset Class: Land / Vacant. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($771,120 land vs $0 improvements), about $1/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $771,120, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Land/Vacant property in Travis County — county median $84,423 (P25 $24,862 / P75 $362,804, n=35,611). Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +30.3% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2026 preliminary trend, projected forward from 2026), the model projects market value near $2,892,009 by 2031, with an estimated annual tax burden around $46,289. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILE Leander ISD | 1.3370% | 1.2746% | 1.1087% | 1.0869% | 1.0869% | +0.0000% | $8,381.30 | $8,381.30 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $2,898.22 | $2,898.22 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $910.10 | $910.10 | Paid |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1048% | 0.0987% | 0.0986% | 0.1013% | 0.1034% | +0.0021% | $797.34 | $797.34 | Paid |
| E01 Travis County ESD # 01 | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | +0.0000% | $771.12 | $771.12 | Paid |
| E07 Travis County ESD # 07 | 0.1000% | 0.0784% | 0.0842% | 0.0910% | 0.1000% | +0.0090% | $770.87 | $770.87 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 2.1110% | 1.9686% | 1.7968% | 1.8316% | 1.8841% | +0.0525% | $14,528.95 | $14,528.95 | Paid |
| Entity | Tax Rate | Amount Due | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILE Leander ISD | 1.0869% | $8,381.30 | 57.7% |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3758% | $2,898.22 | 19.9% |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1180% | $910.10 | 6.3% |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1034% | $797.34 | 5.5% |
| E01 Travis County ESD # 01 | 0.1000% | $771.12 | 5.3% |
| E07 Travis County ESD # 07 | 0.1000% | $770.87 | 5.3% |
| Total | 1.8841% | $14,528.95 | 100.0% |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $771,120 | $771,120 | +0.0% |
| Assessed Value | $771,120 | $771,120 | +0.0% |
| Land Value | $771,120 | $771,120 | +0.0% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $771,120 | $771,120 | +0.0% |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$14,529
Estimated
|
~$14,529
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Pre | $771,120 | $771,120 | — | — | $771,120 | $771,120 | Not yet — post-cert | Preliminary |
| 2025 | $771,120 | $771,120 | — | — | $771,120 | $771,120 | ~$14,529 | Partial |
| 2024 | $650,000 | $771,047 | — | — | $650,000 | $650,000 | $11,905 | Verified |
| 2023 | $771,047 | $771,047 | — | — | $771,047 | $771,047 | $11,680 | Verified |
| 2022 | $650,000 | $771,047 | — | — | $650,000 | $650,000 | $12,796 | Verified |
| 2021 | $205,610 | $205,610 | — | — | $205,610 | $205,610 | $4,135 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +18.6% | +18.6% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | -15.7% | -15.7% | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2023 | +18.6% | +18.6% | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2022 | +216.1% ! | +216.1% | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +275.0% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | +0.0% | +47.5% | +30.3% | +216.1% | 2022 | -15.7% | 2024 |
| Assessment Ratio | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | 100.0% | 2021 | 100.0% | 2021 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 1.8800% | 1.8800% | — | 1.8800% | 2025 | 1.8800% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$14,529 | $11,009 | ~$30,764 | $14,529 | 2025 | $4,135 | 2021 |
Market value changed by 216% in 2022, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ~$1,004,471 | ~$1,004,471 | ~1.8274% | ~$18,356 | +30.3% |
| 2028 | ~$1,308,438 | ~$1,308,438 | ~1.7707% | ~$23,169 | +69.7% |
| 2029 | ~$1,704,389 | ~$1,704,389 | ~1.7140% | ~$29,213 | +121.0% |
| 2030 | ~$2,220,159 | ~$2,220,159 | ~1.6573% | ~$36,794 | +187.9% |
| 2031 | ~$2,892,009 | ~$2,892,009 | ~1.6006% | ~$46,289 | +275.0% |
| 2027 | ~$989,049 | ~$989,049 | ~1.8841% | ~$18,635 | +28.3% |
| 2028 | ~$1,268,567 | ~$1,268,567 | ~1.8841% | ~$23,902 | +64.5% |
| 2029 | ~$1,627,081 | ~$1,627,081 | ~1.8841% | ~$30,656 | +111.0% |
| 2030 | ~$2,086,917 | ~$2,086,917 | ~1.8841% | ~$39,320 | +170.6% |
| 2031 | ~$2,676,707 | ~$2,676,707 | ~1.8841% | ~$50,433 | +247.1% |
| 2027 | ~$1,019,894 | ~$1,019,894 | ~1.7991% | ~$18,349 | +32.3% |
| 2028 | ~$1,348,925 | ~$1,348,925 | ~1.7140% | ~$23,121 | +74.9% |
| 2029 | ~$1,784,106 | ~$1,784,106 | ~1.6289% | ~$29,062 | +131.4% |
| 2030 | ~$2,359,683 | ~$2,359,683 | ~1.5439% | ~$36,430 | +206.0% |
| 2031 | ~$3,120,948 | ~$3,120,948 | ~1.4588% | ~$45,528 | +304.7% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $771,120 places it in the top 25% for Land/Vacant properties in Travis County (35611 comparable) — 9× the county median of $84,423. Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $771,120 | $24,862 | $84,423 | $362,804 | ↑ Top 25% | +2.1% |
| 2024 | $650,000 | $23,000 | $66,000 | $328,966 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2023 | $771,047 | $24,692 | $71,500 | $270,000 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2022 | $650,000 | $15,000 | $55,000 | $180,000 | ↑ Top 25% | +100.0% |
| 2021 | $205,610 | $8,000 | $22,000 | $81,900 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
| Source | What it provides | Coverage for this parcel | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCAD Certified Appraisal Roll ↗ | Market, assessed, and taxable value; land/improvement split; exemptions | 2025 | Certified |
| Texas Comptroller Annual Jurisdiction Roll (AJR) | Prior-year market and taxable value | 2021–2024 | Verified |
| TCAD Preliminary Export ↗ | First-look 2026 appraisal value, subject to change at certification | 2026 (exported June 9, 2026; certifies July 25, 2026) | Preliminary |
| Travis County Rates History ↗ | Adopted tax rate for each of this parcel's taxing entities | 1990–2025 | Verified |
| TaxCurOpenData | Current-year (2025) tax billing, by taxing entity | 2025 | Partial |
| PIR bulk billing export | Prior-year tax billing, Travis County Tax Office | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | Verified |
| Satellite imagery (Esri World Imagery) | Aerial view of the parcel | Located by geocoding this parcel's address — may not resolve for every address | — |