2809 S PACE BEND RD TX 78669
| Owner | LUCKY STARS PROTECTION TRUST |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0550070201 |
| Short ID | 467273 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | C1 Vacant Lot |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | 4,288 SF |
| Land SF | 899,514 SF |
| Acres | 20.650 |
| Year Built | 1995 |
| Legal | .65 AC OF LOT 14 PALEFACE PARK PHS I SEC B (NON-HOMESTEAD) |
| Neighborhood | Q4003 |
| Land | $65,000 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $65,000 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $65,000 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $65,000 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$535 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $64,465 |
| Taxable Value | $64,465 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has fallen -95.2% from $1,346,790 (2021) to $65,000 (2025), a CAGR of -53.1% over 4 years. Growth has been relatively flat for this asset class. Most of this growth came in a single year (2021→2022), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Land/Vacant parcel countywide rose +283.7%, so this parcel has lagged the broader land/vacant market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 5 taxing entities is 1.7041% in 2025 (+0.0281% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $1,099. Lake Travis ISD is the largest single contributor, at 61.0% of the total 2025 levy.
Asset Class: Land / Vacant. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($65,000 land vs $0 improvements), about $0/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land under a ~31-year-old structure, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $65,000, this parcel sits in the lower-middle (25th–50th percentile) of Land/Vacant property in Travis County — county median $84,423 (P25 $24,862 / P75 $362,804, n=35,611). Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the -45.5% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2026 preliminary trend, projected forward from 2026), the model projects market value near $3,137 by 2031, with an estimated annual tax burden around $46. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
12 components · show ▾hide ▴
| Code | Description | SF | In Gross |
|---|---|---|---|
| 095 | HVAC RESIDENTIAL | 4,192 SF | ✗ |
| 031 | GARAGE DET 1ST F | 2,827 SF | ✓ |
| 2ND | 2nd Floor | 2,191 SF | ✓ |
| 1ST | 1st Floor | 1,779 SF | ✓ |
| 041 | GARAGE ATT 1ST F | 572 SF | ✓ |
| 011 | PORCH OPEN 1ST F | 356 SF | ✗ |
| 3RD | 3rd Floor | 318 SF | ✓ |
| 512 | DECK UNCOVRED | 290 SF | ✗ |
| 012 | PORCH OPEN 2ND F | 284 SF | ✗ |
| 251 | BATHROOM | 4 SF | ✓ |
| 522 | FIREPLACE | 1 SF | ✓ |
| 413 | STAIRWAY EXT | 1 SF | ✓ |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILT Lake Travis ISD | 1.2301% | 1.2121% | 1.0741% | 1.0656% | 1.0397% | -0.0259% | $558.54 | $558.54 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $201.91 | $201.91 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $63.40 | $63.40 | Paid |
| E08 Travis County ESD # 08 | 0.0970% | 0.0790% | 0.0810% | 0.0830% | 0.0930% | +0.0100% | $49.97 | $49.97 | Paid |
| E16 Travis County ESD # 16 | 0.0880% | 0.0740% | 0.0730% | 0.0750% | 0.0775% | +0.0025% | $41.63 | $41.63 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 1.8843% | 1.7820% | 1.6334% | 1.6760% | 1.7041% | +0.0281% | $915.45 | $915.45 | Paid |
| Entity | Tax Rate | Amount Due | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILT Lake Travis ISD | 1.0397% | $558.54 | 61.0% |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3758% | $201.91 | 22.1% |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1180% | $63.40 | 6.9% |
| E08 Travis County ESD # 08 | 0.0930% | $49.97 | 5.5% |
| E16 Travis County ESD # 16 | 0.0775% | $41.63 | 4.5% |
| Total | 1.7041% | $915.45 | 100.0% |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $65,000 | $65,000 | +0.0% |
| Assessed Value | $64,465 | $64,465 | +0.0% |
| Land Value | $65,000 | $65,000 | +0.0% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $64,465 | $64,465 | +0.0% |
| HS Cap Loss | -$535 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$1,099
Estimated
|
~$915
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Pre | $65,000 | $65,000 | — | −$535 | $64,465 | $64,465 | Not yet — post-cert | Preliminary |
| 2025 | $65,000 | $65,000 | — | −$535 | $64,465 | $64,465 | ~$915 | Partial |
| 2024 | $65,000 | $65,000 | — | — | $65,000 | $65,000 | $13,203 | Verified |
| 2023 | $65,000 | $65,000 | — | — | $65,000 | $65,000 | $12,364 | Verified |
| 2022 | $65,000 | $65,000 | — | — | $65,000 | $65,000 | $12,742 | Verified |
| 2021 | $1,346,790 | $499,997 | $846,793 | −$451,283 | $895,507 | $716,406 | $12,306 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +0.0% | +0.0% | 99.2% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +0.0% | -0.8% | 99.2% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2022 | -95.2% ! | -92.7% | ~100% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | 66.5% | No billing data | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): -95.2% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | +0.0% | -19.0% | -45.5% | +0.0% | 2023 | -95.2% | 2022 |
| Assessment Ratio | 99.2% | 94.1% | — | 100.0% | 2022 | 66.5% | 2021 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 1.4100% | 1.4100% | — | 1.4100% | 2025 | 1.4100% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$915 | $10,306 | ~$240 | $13,203 | 2024 | $915 | 2025 |
Market value changed by 95% in 2022, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ~$35,452 | ~$35,452 | ~1.6590% | ~$588 | -45.5% |
| 2028 | ~$19,336 | ~$19,336 | ~1.6140% | ~$312 | -70.3% |
| 2029 | ~$10,546 | ~$10,546 | ~1.5689% | ~$165 | -83.8% |
| 2030 | ~$5,752 | ~$5,752 | ~1.5239% | ~$88 | -91.2% |
| 2031 | ~$3,137 | ~$3,137 | ~1.4788% | ~$46 | -95.2% |
| 2027 | ~$61,750 | ~$61,750 | ~1.7041% | ~$1,052 | -5.0% |
| 2028 | ~$58,662 | ~$58,662 | ~1.7041% | ~$1,000 | -9.8% |
| 2029 | ~$55,729 | ~$55,729 | ~1.7041% | ~$950 | -14.3% |
| 2030 | ~$52,943 | ~$52,943 | ~1.7041% | ~$902 | -18.5% |
| 2031 | ~$50,296 | ~$50,296 | ~1.7041% | ~$857 | -22.6% |
| 2027 | ~$36,752 | ~$36,752 | ~1.6365% | ~$601 | -43.5% |
| 2028 | ~$20,780 | ~$20,780 | ~1.5689% | ~$326 | -68.0% |
| 2029 | ~$11,749 | ~$11,749 | ~1.5014% | ~$176 | -81.9% |
| 2030 | ~$6,643 | ~$6,643 | ~1.4338% | ~$95 | -89.8% |
| 2031 | ~$3,756 | ~$3,756 | ~1.3662% | ~$51 | -94.2% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $65,000 places it in the 25th–50th percentile for Land/Vacant properties in Travis County (35611 comparable) — -23% below the county median of $84,423. Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $65,000 | $24,862 | $84,423 | $362,804 | ↓ Below median | +2.1% |
| 2024 | $65,000 | $23,000 | $66,000 | $328,966 | ↓ Below median | +0.0% |
| 2023 | $65,000 | $24,692 | $71,500 | $270,000 | ↓ Below median | +0.0% |
| 2022 | $65,000 | $15,000 | $55,000 | $180,000 | ↑ Above median | +100.0% |
| 2021 | $1,346,790 | $8,000 | $22,000 | $81,900 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
| Source | What it provides | Coverage for this parcel | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCAD Certified Appraisal Roll ↗ | Market, assessed, and taxable value; land/improvement split; exemptions | 2025 | Certified |
| Texas Comptroller Annual Jurisdiction Roll (AJR) | Prior-year market and taxable value | 2021–2024 | Verified |
| TCAD Preliminary Export ↗ | First-look 2026 appraisal value, subject to change at certification | 2026 (exported June 9, 2026; certifies July 25, 2026) | Preliminary |
| Travis County Rates History ↗ | Adopted tax rate for each of this parcel's taxing entities | 1990–2025 | Verified |
| TaxCurOpenData | Current-year (2025) tax billing, by taxing entity | 2025 | Partial |
| PIR bulk billing export | Prior-year tax billing, Travis County Tax Office | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | Verified |
| Satellite imagery (Esri World Imagery) | Aerial view of the parcel | Located by geocoding this parcel's address — may not resolve for every address | — |