CARLSON LN TX 78653
| Owner | QUALICO DEVELOPMENTS INC |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0651090402 |
| Short ID | 467330 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | D1 Acreage — Qualified Open-Space Land (1-d-1) |
| Valuation | Productivity |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 1,512,185 SF |
| Acres | 34.715 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | ABS 518 SUR 65 MARTIN H ACR 34.715 (1-D-1) |
| Neighborhood | _RGN320 |
| Land | $1,348,320 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $1,348,320 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $1,164,532 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $1,164,532 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$1,153,316 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $11,216 |
| Taxable Value | $11,216 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +274.9% from $310,637 (2021) to $1,164,532 (2025), a CAGR of 39.1% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2023→2024), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Agricultural parcel countywide rose +96.0%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader agricultural market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 4 taxing entities is 1.5473% in 2025 (+0.9936% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $174. Triada MUD is the largest single contributor, at 61.4% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($11,216) is $1,153,316 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Agricultural. Agricultural valuation may be subject to rollback taxes if land use changes.
Value Composition: Land carries 116% of market value ($1,348,320 land vs $0 improvements), about $1/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $1,164,532, this parcel sits in the upper-middle (50th–75th percentile) of Agricultural property in Travis County — county median $561,432 (P25 $179,824 / P75 $1,355,511, n=7,602). Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +26.2% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2022–2026 preliminary trend, projected forward from 2026), the model projects market value near $3,898,620 by 2031, with an estimated annual tax burden around $107,753. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U12C Triada MUD | — | — | — | — | 0.9500% | — | $106.55 | $106.55 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $42.15 | $42.15 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $13.24 | $13.24 | Paid |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1048% | 0.0987% | 0.0986% | 0.1013% | 0.1034% | +0.0021% | $11.60 | $11.60 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 0.5740% | 0.5156% | 0.5039% | 0.5537% | 1.5473% | +0.9936% | $173.54 | $173.54 | Paid |
| Entity | Tax Rate | Amount Due | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| U12C Triada MUD | 0.9500% | $106.55 | 61.4% |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3758% | $42.15 | 24.3% |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1180% | $13.24 | 7.6% |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1034% | $11.60 | 6.7% |
| Total | 1.5473% | $173.54 | 100.0% |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $1,218,323 | $1,164,532 | +4.6% |
| Assessed Value | $11,509 | $11,216 | +2.6% |
| Land Value | $1,218,323 | $1,348,320 | -9.6% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $11,509 | $11,216 | +2.6% |
| HS Cap Loss | -$1,206,814 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$178
Estimated
|
~$174
Partial
|
|
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Pre | $1,218,323 | $1,218,323 | — | −$1,206,814 | $11,509 | $11,509 | Not yet — post-cert | Preliminary |
| 2025 | $1,164,532 | $1,348,320 | — | −$1,153,316 | $11,216 | $11,216 | ~$174 | Partial |
| 2024 | $1,348,320 | $1,348,320 | — | −$1,338,057 | $10,263 | $10,263 | $57 | Verified |
| 2023 | $480,445 | $480,445 | — | −$469,049 | $11,396 | $11,396 | $57 | Verified |
| 2022 | $480,445 | $480,445 | — | −$468,811 | $11,634 | $11,634 | $60 | Verified |
| 2021 | $310,637 | — | — | −$298,775 | $11,862 | $11,862 | $68 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +4.6% | +2.6% | 0.9% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | -13.6% | +9.3% | 1.0% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +180.6% ! | -9.9% | 0.8% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | -2.0% | 2.4% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2022 | +54.7% | -1.9% | 2.4% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | 3.8% | No billing data | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +274.9% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | +4.6% | +45.3% | +26.2% | +180.6% | 2024 | -13.6% | 2025 |
| Assessment Ratio | 0.9% | 1.9% | — | 3.8% | 2021 | 0.8% | 2024 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.0100% | 0.0100% | — | 0.0100% | 2025 | 0.0100% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$174 | $83 | ~$61,673 | $174 | 2025 | $57 | 2024 |
Market value changed by 181% in 2024, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ~$1,537,419 | ~$1,537,419 | ~1.7906% | ~$27,529 | +26.2% |
| 2028 | ~$1,940,090 | ~$1,940,090 | ~2.0339% | ~$39,460 | +59.2% |
| 2029 | ~$2,448,226 | ~$2,448,226 | ~2.2772% | ~$55,752 | +101.0% |
| 2030 | ~$3,089,450 | ~$3,089,450 | ~2.5206% | ~$77,871 | +153.6% |
| 2031 | ~$3,898,620 | ~$3,898,620 | ~2.7639% | ~$107,753 | +220.0% |
| 2027 | ~$1,513,052 | ~$1,513,052 | ~1.5473% | ~$23,411 | +24.2% |
| 2028 | ~$1,879,080 | ~$1,879,080 | ~1.5473% | ~$29,074 | +54.2% |
| 2029 | ~$2,333,656 | ~$2,333,656 | ~1.5473% | ~$36,108 | +91.5% |
| 2030 | ~$2,898,199 | ~$2,898,199 | ~1.5473% | ~$44,843 | +137.9% |
| 2031 | ~$3,599,314 | ~$3,599,314 | ~1.5473% | ~$55,691 | +195.4% |
| 2027 | ~$1,561,785 | ~$1,561,785 | ~1.9123% | ~$29,865 | +28.2% |
| 2028 | ~$2,002,074 | ~$2,002,074 | ~2.2772% | ~$45,592 | +64.3% |
| 2029 | ~$2,566,486 | ~$2,566,486 | ~2.6422% | ~$67,812 | +110.7% |
| 2030 | ~$3,290,014 | ~$3,290,014 | ~3.0072% | ~$98,937 | +170.0% |
| 2031 | ~$4,217,514 | ~$4,217,514 | ~3.3722% | ~$142,222 | +246.2% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $1,164,532 places it in the 50th–75th percentile for Agricultural properties in Travis County (7602 comparable) — +107% above the county median of $561,432. Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $1,164,532 | $179,824 | $561,432 | $1,355,511 | ↑ Above median | +0.0% |
| 2024 | $1,348,320 | $193,498 | $574,650 | $1,361,070 | ↑ Above median | +23.7% |
| 2023 | $480,445 | $150,007 | $423,072 | $1,000,412 | ↑ Above median | +0.0% |
| 2022 | $480,445 | $166,375 | $416,994 | $932,726 | ↑ Above median | +46.1% |
| 2021 | $310,637 | $105,498 | $286,444 | $607,111 | ↑ Above median | base yr |
| Source | What it provides | Coverage for this parcel | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCAD Certified Appraisal Roll ↗ | Market, assessed, and taxable value; land/improvement split; exemptions | 2025 | Certified |
| Texas Comptroller Annual Jurisdiction Roll (AJR) | Prior-year market and taxable value | 2021–2024 | Verified |
| TCAD Preliminary Export ↗ | First-look 2026 appraisal value, subject to change at certification | 2026 (exported June 9, 2026; certifies July 25, 2026) | Preliminary |
| Travis County Rates History ↗ | Adopted tax rate for each of this parcel's taxing entities | 1990–2025 | Verified |
| TaxCurOpenData | Current-year (2025) tax billing, by taxing entity | 2025 | Partial |
| PIR bulk billing export | Prior-year tax billing, Travis County Tax Office | 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 | Verified |
| Satellite imagery (Esri World Imagery) | Aerial view of the parcel | Located by geocoding this parcel's address — may not resolve for every address | — |