10419 CRUMLEY RANCH RD TX 78738
| Owner | CRUMLEY ESTIN |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0102870226 |
| Short ID | 103132 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | D1 Acreage — Qualified Open-Space Land (1-d-1) |
| Valuation | Productivity |
| Improvement SF | 1,022 SF |
| Land SF | 1,491,494 SF |
| Acres | 34.240 |
| Year Built | 1983 |
| Legal | ABS 452 SUR 401 JOHNSON W S ACR 33.24 (1-D-1) |
| Neighborhood | _RGN220 |
| Land | $2,031,741 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $2,031,741 |
| Improvement | $3,843 |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | $3,843 |
| Market | $2,035,584 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $2,035,584 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$1,968,995 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $66,589 |
| Taxable Value | $66,589 |
|---|
| Total Due | $277.00 |
|---|---|
| First Delinquent | 2022 |
Appreciation: Market value has risen +12707.2% from $15,894 (2021) to $2,035,584 (2025), a CAGR of 236.4% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2024→2025), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Agricultural parcel countywide rose +479.4%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader agricultural market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 4 taxing entities is 1.6240% in 2025 (+0.0184% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $1,081. Lake Travis ISD is the largest single contributor, at 64.0% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($66,589) is $1,968,995 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Agricultural. Agricultural valuation may be subject to rollback taxes if land use changes.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($2,031,741 land vs $3,843 improvements), about $1/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land under a ~43-year-old structure, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $2,035,584, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Agricultural property in Travis County — county median $597,708 (P25 $207,536 / P75 $1,442,275, n=7,602). Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +305.9% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2022–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $2,241,921,169 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $1,507. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
Delinquent Taxes: $277.00 in unpaid taxes since 2022. These become a lien on the property and transfer to the buyer at closing unless negotiated otherwise.
3 components · show ▾hide ▴
| Code | Description | SF | In Gross |
|---|---|---|---|
| SO | Sketch Only | 1,064 SF | ✗ |
| 1ST | 1st Floor | 1,022 SF | ✓ |
| 121 | WATER/SEWER INF | 1 SF | ✓ |
| Unit (prop_id) | Owner | Address | Market Value | Assessed Value | Taxable Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 103132 | CRUMLEY ESTIN | 10419 CRUMLEY RANCH RD 78738 | $86,016 | $75,817 | $75,817 |
| 103133 | CRUMLEY ESTIN | 0.000 | $2,731,442 | $2,366,884 | $2,366,884 |
| Entity | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | Rate Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travis County | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +21 |
| Lake Travis ISD | 1.0656% | 1.0397% | -17 |
| Travis Central Health | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +7 |
| Travis County ESD # 06 | 0.0876% | 0.0904% | +2 |
This parcel has unpaid taxes on record. Delinquent taxes are a lien on the property and transfer to the buyer at closing unless negotiated otherwise.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILT Lake Travis ISD | 1.2301% | 1.2121% | 1.0741% | 1.0656% | 1.0397% | -0.0259% | $692.32 | $— | $692.32 |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $250.27 | $— | $250.27 |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $78.59 | $— | $78.59 |
| E06 Travis County ESD # 06 | 0.1000% | 0.0867% | 0.0831% | 0.0876% | 0.0904% | +0.0028% | $60.19 | $— | $60.19 |
| Combined Rate | 1.7993% | 1.7157% | 1.5625% | 1.6056% | 1.6240% | +0.0184% | $1,081.37 | $0.00 | $1,081.37 |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $2,817,458 | $2,035,584 | +38.4% |
| Assessed Value | $2,442,701 | $66,589 | +3568.3% |
| Land Value | $2,813,615 | $2,031,741 | +38.5% |
| Improvement Value | $3,843 | $3,843 | +0.0% |
| Taxable Value | $2,442,701 | $66,589 | +3568.3% |
| HS Cap Loss | -$374,757 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$39,669
Estimated
|
$1,081 | ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $2,817,458 | $2,817,458 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Taxable Value | $2,442,701 | $2,442,701 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2,817,458 | $2,813,615 | $3,843 | −$374,757 | $2,442,701 | $2,442,701 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $2,035,584 | $2,031,741 | $3,843 | −$1,968,995 | $66,589 | $66,589 | $1,081 | Verified |
| 2024 | $45,446 | — | — | — | $59,338 ! | $— | $926 | Verified |
| 2023 | $45,446 | — | — | −$3,843 | $41,603 | $— | $759 | Verified |
| 2022 | $30,446 | — | — | — | $41,603 ! | $— | $831 | Verified |
| 2021 | $15,894 | — | — | — | $26,603 ! | $— | $599 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +38.5% | +69350.8% | 86.6% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +0.0% | +8.8% | 0.2% | 0.0000% | Verified |
| 2024 | +42.6% | -0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0500% | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | +5.0% | 0.2% | 0.0500% | Verified |
| 2022 | +56.4% | +5.3% | 0.2% | 0.0600% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | 0.3% | 3.7700% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +123.1% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | +38.4% | +911.7% | +283.3% | +4379.1% | 2025 | +0.0% | 2024 |
| Assessment Ratio | 86.7% | 102.7% | — | 167.4% | 2021 | 3.3% | 2025 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.0000% | 0.0000% | — | 0.0000% | 2025 | 0.0000% | 2025 |
| Tax Amount | $1,081 | $839 | ~$1,327 | $1,081 | 2025 | $599 | 2021 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$8,261,812 | ~$73,248 | ~1.5801% | ~$1,157 | +305.9% |
| 2027 | ~$33,532,162 | ~$80,573 | ~1.5363% | ~$1,238 | +1547.3% |
| 2028 | ~$136,096,769 | ~$88,630 | ~1.4925% | ~$1,323 | +6585.9% |
| 2029 | ~$552,375,078 | ~$97,493 | ~1.4487% | ~$1,412 | +27036.0% |
| 2030 | ~$2,241,921,169 | ~$107,242 | ~1.4048% | ~$1,507 | +110036.5% |
| 2026 | ~$8,221,100 | ~$73,248 | ~1.6240% | ~$1,190 | +303.9% |
| 2027 | ~$33,202,504 | ~$80,573 | ~1.6240% | ~$1,308 | +1531.1% |
| 2028 | ~$134,094,737 | ~$88,630 | ~1.6240% | ~$1,439 | +6487.5% |
| 2029 | ~$541,567,550 | ~$97,493 | ~1.6240% | ~$1,583 | +26505.0% |
| 2030 | ~$2,187,225,373 | ~$107,242 | ~1.6240% | ~$1,742 | +107349.5% |
| 2026 | ~$8,302,523 | ~$73,248 | ~1.5582% | ~$1,141 | +307.9% |
| 2027 | ~$33,863,448 | ~$80,573 | ~1.4925% | ~$1,203 | +1563.6% |
| 2028 | ~$138,118,629 | ~$88,630 | ~1.4267% | ~$1,265 | +6685.2% |
| 2029 | ~$563,343,562 | ~$97,493 | ~1.3610% | ~$1,327 | +27574.8% |
| 2030 | ~$2,297,705,754 | ~$107,242 | ~1.2953% | ~$1,389 | +112777.0% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $2,035,584 places it in the top 25% for Agricultural properties in Travis County (7602 comparable) — 3× the county median of $597,708. Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $2,035,584 | $207,536 | $597,708 | $1,442,275 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2024 | $45,446 | $217,016 | $597,296 | $1,446,593 | ↓ Bottom 25% | +23.7% |
| 2023 | $45,446 | $167,963 | $453,916 | $1,078,522 | ↓ Bottom 25% | +0.0% |
| 2022 | $30,446 | $180,794 | $446,888 | $1,009,883 | ↓ Bottom 25% | +46.1% |
| 2021 | $15,894 | $33,611 | $103,166 | $247,000 | ↓ Bottom 25% | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.