GREAT DIVIDE DR TX 78738
| Owner | FERRELL WILLIAM R & KAREN |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0118670545 |
| Short ID | 119105 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | C1 Vacant Lot |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 139,348 SF |
| Acres | 3.199 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | LOT 6 HOMESTEAD SEC 3 THE |
| Neighborhood | P5090 |
| Land | $764,577 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $764,577 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $764,577 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $764,577 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$303,921 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $460,656 |
| Taxable Value | $460,656 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +139.0% from $319,900 (2021) to $764,577 (2025), a CAGR of 24.3% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2021→2025), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Land/Vacant parcel countywide rose +487.2%, so this parcel has lagged the broader land/vacant market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 5 taxing entities is 1.6440% in 2025 (+0.0184% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $7,573. Lake Travis ISD is the largest single contributor, at 63.2% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($460,656) is $303,921 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Land / Vacant. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($764,577 land vs $0 improvements), about $5/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $764,577, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Land/Vacant property in Travis County — county median $85,028 (P25 $24,862 / P75 $363,420, n=35,611). Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +24.3% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $2,272,113 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $32,374. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Market value changed by 150% in 2024, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILT Lake Travis ISD | 1.2301% | 1.2121% | 1.0741% | 1.0656% | 1.0397% | -0.0259% | $4,789.44 | $4,789.44 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $1,731.35 | $1,731.35 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $543.68 | $543.68 | Paid |
| E06 Travis County ESD # 06 | 0.1000% | 0.0867% | 0.0831% | 0.0876% | 0.0904% | +0.0028% | $416.43 | $416.43 | Paid |
| VBC City of Bee Cave | 0.0200% | 0.0200% | 0.0200% | 0.0200% | 0.0200% | +0.0000% | $92.13 | $92.13 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 1.8193% | 1.7357% | 1.5825% | 1.6256% | 1.6440% | +0.0184% | $7,573.03 | $7,573.03 | Paid |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $707,037 | $764,577 | -7.5% |
| Assessed Value | $552,787 | $460,656 | +20.0% |
| Land Value | $707,037 | $764,577 | -7.5% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $552,787 | $460,656 | +20.0% |
| HS Cap Loss | -$154,250 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$9,088
Estimated
|
~$7,573
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $707,037 | $707,037 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Taxable Value | $552,787 | $552,787 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $707,037 | $707,037 | — | −$154,250 | $552,787 | $552,787 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $764,577 | $764,577 | — | −$303,921 | $460,656 | $460,656 | ~$7,573 | Partial |
| 2024 | $— | — | — | — | $799,750 | $— | $6,240 | Verified |
| 2023 | $— | — | — | — | $319,900 | $— | $5,063 | Verified |
| 2022 | $— | — | — | — | $319,900 | $— | $5,553 | Verified |
| 2021 | $319,900 | — | — | — | $319,900 | $— | $5,820 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -7.5% | +20.0% | 78.2% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | -4.4% | +20.0% | 60.2% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +150.0% ! | +20.0% | 48.0% | 0.7800% | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | 1.5800% | Verified |
| 2022 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | 1.7400% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | 1.8200% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +139.0% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -7.5% | +65.8% | +26.4% | +139.0% | 2025 | -7.5% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 78.2% | 79.5% | — | 100.0% | 2021 | 60.2% | 2025 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.9900% | 0.9900% | — | 0.9900% | 2025 | 0.9900% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$7,573 | $6,696 | ~$23,010 | $7,573 | 2025 | $5,820 | 2021 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$950,655 | ~$950,655 | ~1.6001% | ~$15,212 | +24.3% |
| 2027 | ~$1,182,020 | ~$1,182,020 | ~1.5563% | ~$18,396 | +54.6% |
| 2028 | ~$1,469,692 | ~$1,469,692 | ~1.5125% | ~$22,229 | +92.2% |
| 2029 | ~$1,827,377 | ~$1,827,377 | ~1.4687% | ~$26,838 | +139.0% |
| 2030 | ~$2,272,113 | ~$2,272,113 | ~1.4248% | ~$32,374 | +197.2% |
| 2026 | ~$935,364 | ~$935,364 | ~1.6440% | ~$15,377 | +22.3% |
| 2027 | ~$1,144,299 | ~$1,144,299 | ~1.6440% | ~$18,812 | +49.7% |
| 2028 | ~$1,399,906 | ~$1,399,906 | ~1.6440% | ~$23,014 | +83.1% |
| 2029 | ~$1,712,608 | ~$1,712,608 | ~1.6440% | ~$28,155 | +124.0% |
| 2030 | ~$2,095,160 | ~$2,095,160 | ~1.6440% | ~$34,444 | +174.0% |
| 2026 | ~$965,947 | ~$965,947 | ~1.5782% | ~$15,245 | +26.3% |
| 2027 | ~$1,220,352 | ~$1,220,352 | ~1.5125% | ~$18,458 | +59.6% |
| 2028 | ~$1,541,761 | ~$1,541,761 | ~1.4467% | ~$22,305 | +101.6% |
| 2029 | ~$1,947,820 | ~$1,947,820 | ~1.3810% | ~$26,899 | +154.8% |
| 2030 | ~$2,460,825 | ~$2,460,825 | ~1.3153% | ~$32,366 | +221.9% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $764,577 places it in the top 25% for Land/Vacant properties in Travis County (35611 comparable) — 9× the county median of $85,028. Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $764,577 | $24,862 | $85,028 | $363,420 | ↑ Top 25% | +2.1% |
| 2024 | — | $23,000 | $66,000 | $330,000 | — | +0.0% |
| 2023 | — | $25,000 | $71,500 | $271,439 | — | +0.0% |
| 2022 | — | $15,000 | $55,000 | $180,463 | — | +100.0% |
| 2021 | $319,900 | $6,000 | $14,480 | $80,000 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.