4451 RIVER GARDEN TRL TX 78746
| Owner | MISIKOFF MICHAEL & SHERIAN |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0121110251 |
| Short ID | 473938 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | C1 Vacant Lot |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 82,046 SF |
| Acres | 1.884 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | LOT 26 BLK A SUMMIT AT WEST RIM ON MOUNT LARSON BLK A THE |
| Neighborhood | M6300 |
| Land | $2,763,414 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $2,763,414 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $990,000 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $990,000 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) | — |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $990,000 |
| Taxable Value | $990,000 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has fallen -34.0% from $1,500,000 (2021) to $990,000 (2025), a CAGR of -9.9% over 4 years. Growth has been relatively flat for this asset class. Growth has been fairly evenly spread across these years rather than concentrated in one jump. Over the same span, the median Land/Vacant parcel countywide rose +487.2%, so this parcel has lagged the broader land/vacant market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 4 taxing entities is 1.4019% in 2025 (-0.0070% vs 2024 — rates decreased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $13,878. Eanes ISD is the largest single contributor, at 59.4% of the total 2025 levy.
Asset Class: Land / Vacant. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 279% of market value ($2,763,414 land vs $0 improvements), about $34/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $990,000, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Land/Vacant property in Travis County — county median $85,028 (P25 $24,862 / P75 $363,420, n=35,611). Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the -9.9% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $588,932 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $6,719. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Market value changed by 242% in 2026, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IEA Eanes ISD | 1.0608% | 1.0046% | 0.8880% | 0.8855% | 0.8322% | -0.0533% | $8,238.78 | $8,238.78 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $3,720.87 | $3,720.87 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $1,168.43 | $1,168.43 | Paid |
| E09 Travis County ESD # 09 | 0.0807% | 0.0726% | 0.0735% | 0.0710% | 0.0758% | +0.0048% | $750.42 | $750.42 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 1.6107% | 1.4941% | 1.3668% | 1.4089% | 1.4019% | -0.0070% | $13,878.50 | $13,878.50 | Paid |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $3,390,345 | $990,000 | +242.5% |
| Assessed Value | $1,188,000 | $990,000 | +20.0% |
| Land Value | $3,390,345 | $2,763,414 | +22.7% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $1,188,000 | $990,000 | +20.0% |
| HS Cap Loss | -$2,202,345 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$16,654
Estimated
|
~$13,878
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $3,390,345 | $3,390,345 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Taxable Value | $1,188,000 | $1,188,000 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $3,390,345 | $3,390,345 | — | −$2,202,345 | $1,188,000 | $1,188,000 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $990,000 | $2,763,414 | — | — | $990,000 | $990,000 | ~$13,878 | Partial |
| 2024 | $— | — | — | — | $990,000 | $— | $13,948 | Verified |
| 2023 | $— | — | — | — | $990,000 | $— | $13,532 | Verified |
| 2022 | $— | — | — | — | $990,000 | $— | $14,792 | Verified |
| 2021 | $1,500,000 | — | — | −$510,000 | $990,000 | $— | $15,946 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +242.5% ! | +20.0% | 35.0% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | 1.4100% | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | 1.3700% | Verified |
| 2022 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | 1.4900% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | 1.0600% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +0.0% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | +242.5% | +104.2% | -22.6% | +242.5% | 2026 | -34.0% | 2025 |
| Assessment Ratio | 35.0% | 67.0% | — | 100.0% | 2025 | 35.0% | 2026 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 1.4000% | 1.4000% | — | 1.4000% | 2025 | 1.4000% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$13,878 | $14,912 | ~$9,204 | $15,946 | 2021 | $13,878 | 2025 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$892,321 | ~$892,321 | ~1.3497% | ~$12,043 | -9.9% |
| 2027 | ~$804,280 | ~$804,280 | ~1.2975% | ~$10,435 | -18.8% |
| 2028 | ~$724,925 | ~$724,925 | ~1.2453% | ~$9,027 | -26.8% |
| 2029 | ~$653,400 | ~$653,400 | ~1.1931% | ~$7,795 | -34.0% |
| 2030 | ~$588,932 | ~$588,932 | ~1.1409% | ~$6,719 | -40.5% |
| 2026 | ~$940,500 | ~$940,500 | ~1.4019% | ~$13,185 | -5.0% |
| 2027 | ~$893,475 | ~$893,475 | ~1.4019% | ~$12,525 | -9.8% |
| 2028 | ~$848,801 | ~$848,801 | ~1.4019% | ~$11,899 | -14.3% |
| 2029 | ~$806,361 | ~$806,361 | ~1.4019% | ~$11,304 | -18.5% |
| 2030 | ~$766,043 | ~$766,043 | ~1.4019% | ~$10,739 | -22.6% |
| 2026 | ~$912,121 | ~$912,121 | ~1.3236% | ~$12,073 | -7.9% |
| 2027 | ~$840,369 | ~$840,369 | ~1.2453% | ~$10,465 | -15.1% |
| 2028 | ~$774,261 | ~$774,261 | ~1.1670% | ~$9,035 | -21.8% |
| 2029 | ~$713,353 | ~$713,353 | ~1.0887% | ~$7,766 | -27.9% |
| 2030 | ~$657,237 | ~$657,237 | ~1.0103% | ~$6,640 | -33.6% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $990,000 places it in the top 25% for Land/Vacant properties in Travis County (35611 comparable) — 12× the county median of $85,028. Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $990,000 | $24,862 | $85,028 | $363,420 | ↑ Top 25% | +2.1% |
| 2024 | — | $23,000 | $66,000 | $330,000 | — | +0.0% |
| 2023 | — | $25,000 | $71,500 | $271,439 | — | +0.0% |
| 2022 | — | $15,000 | $55,000 | $180,463 | — | +100.0% |
| 2021 | $1,500,000 | $6,000 | $14,480 | $80,000 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.