17109 MORNING GROVE LN 78738
| Owner | LOPEZ CHRISTIAN & |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0121860218 |
| Short ID | 953041 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | 01 Single-Family Residence |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | 4,894 SF |
| Land SF | 38,463 SF |
| Acres | 0.883 |
| Year Built | 2022 |
| Legal | LOT 72 BLK A MADRONE CANYON |
| Neighborhood | P5180 |
| Land | $551,783 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $551,783 |
| Improvement | $2,131,125 |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | $2,131,125 |
| Market | $2,682,908 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $2,682,908 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) | — |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $2,682,908 |
| Taxable Value | $2,682,908 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +367.4% from $573,950 (2024) to $2,682,908 (2025), a CAGR of 367.4% over 1 year. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2024→2025), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Land/Vacant parcel countywide rose +28.8%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader land/vacant market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 5 taxing entities is 2.6240% in 2025 (+0.0184% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $70,399. Lake Travis ISD is the largest single contributor, at 39.6% of the total 2025 levy.
Asset Class: Land / Vacant. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 21% of market value ($551,783 land vs $2,131,125 improvements), about $14/SF of land. Most value sits in the improvements, so building condition, age (~4 yrs), and rent roll drive the underwriting.
Submarket Position: At $2,682,908, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Land/Vacant property in Travis County — county median $85,028 (P25 $24,862 / P75 $363,420, n=35,611). Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +367.4% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $5,987,759,958 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $103,909. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
8 components · show ▾hide ▴
| Code | Description | SF | In Gross |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1ST | 1st Floor | 4,894 SF | ✓ |
| 095 | HVAC RESIDENTIAL | 4,894 SF | ✗ |
| 041 | GARAGE ATT 1ST F | 1,221 SF | ✓ |
| 011 | PORCH OPEN 1ST F | 677 SF | ✗ |
| 252 | BEDROOMS | 5 SF | ✓ |
| 251 | BATHROOM | 5 SF | ✓ |
| 522 | FIREPLACE | 1 SF | ✓ |
| 250 | HALF BATHROOM | 1 SF | ✓ |
Market value changed by 155% in 2023, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILT Lake Travis ISD | 1.2301% | 1.2121% | 1.0741% | 1.0656% | 1.0397% | -0.0259% | $6,878.02 | $6,878.02 | Paid |
| U5L Lazy Nine MUD #1A | 1.0000% | 1.0000% | 1.0000% | 1.0000% | 1.0000% | +0.0000% | $6,615.39 | $6,615.39 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $2,486.36 | $2,486.36 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $780.77 | $780.77 | Paid |
| E06 Travis County ESD # 06 | 0.1000% | 0.0867% | 0.0831% | 0.0876% | 0.0904% | +0.0028% | $598.02 | $598.02 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 2.7993% | 2.7157% | 2.5625% | 2.6056% | 2.6240% | +0.0184% | $17,358.56 | $17,358.56 | Paid |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $2,495,290 | $2,682,908 | -7.0% |
| Assessed Value | $2,495,290 | $2,682,908 | -7.0% |
| Land Value | $319,390 | $551,783 | -42.1% |
| Improvement Value | $2,175,900 | $2,131,125 | +2.1% |
| Taxable Value | — | $2,682,908 | — |
| Exemptions | HS | V | |
| Total Tax | Pending certification |
~$17,359
Partial
|
|
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $2,495,290 | $2,495,290 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Taxable Value | — | — | — |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2,495,290 | $319,390 | $2,175,900 | — | $2,495,290 | $— | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $2,682,908 | $551,783 | $2,131,125 | — | $2,682,908 | $2,682,908 | ~$17,359 | Partial |
| 2024 | $573,950 | — | — | −$22,167 | $551,783 | $— | $14,377 | Verified |
| 2023 | $— | — | — | — | $573,950 | $— | $14,708 | Verified |
| 2022 | $— | — | — | — | $225,000 | $— | $6,110 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -7.0% | -7.0% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +386.2% ! | +386.2% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | -3.9% | -3.9% | ~100% | 2.6100% | Verified |
| 2023 | +155.1% ! | +155.1% | ~100% | 2.5600% | Verified |
| 2022 | base year | — | ~100% | 2.7200% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +1092.4% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -7.0% | +180.2% | +374.5% | +367.4% | 2025 | -7.0% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 100.0% | 98.7% | — | 100.0% | 2025 | 96.1% | 2024 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.6500% | 0.6500% | — | 0.6500% | 2025 | 0.6500% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$17,359 | $15,868 | ~$89,516 | $17,359 | 2025 | $14,377 | 2024 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$12,541,154 | ~$2,951,199 | ~2.5801% | ~$76,145 | +367.4% |
| 2027 | ~$58,623,159 | ~$3,246,319 | ~2.5363% | ~$82,337 | +2085.1% |
| 2028 | ~$274,031,786 | ~$3,570,951 | ~2.4925% | ~$89,005 | +10114.0% |
| 2029 | ~$1,280,951,426 | ~$3,928,046 | ~2.4487% | ~$96,184 | +47644.9% |
| 2030 | ~$5,987,759,958 | ~$4,320,850 | ~2.4048% | ~$103,909 | +223081.7% |
| 2026 | ~$12,487,496 | ~$2,951,199 | ~2.6240% | ~$77,438 | +365.4% |
| 2027 | ~$58,122,586 | ~$3,246,319 | ~2.6240% | ~$85,182 | +2066.4% |
| 2028 | ~$270,529,424 | ~$3,570,951 | ~2.6240% | ~$93,701 | +9983.4% |
| 2029 | ~$1,259,169,178 | ~$3,928,046 | ~2.6240% | ~$103,071 | +46833.0% |
| 2030 | ~$5,860,756,263 | ~$4,320,850 | ~2.6240% | ~$113,378 | +218347.9% |
| 2026 | ~$12,594,812 | ~$2,951,199 | ~2.5582% | ~$75,498 | +369.4% |
| 2027 | ~$59,125,879 | ~$3,246,319 | ~2.4925% | ~$80,914 | +2103.8% |
| 2028 | ~$277,564,246 | ~$3,570,951 | ~2.4267% | ~$86,658 | +10245.6% |
| 2029 | ~$1,303,015,066 | ~$3,928,046 | ~2.3610% | ~$92,741 | +48467.3% |
| 2030 | ~$6,116,955,928 | ~$4,320,850 | ~2.2953% | ~$99,175 | +227897.2% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $2,682,908 places it in the top 25% for Land/Vacant properties in Travis County (35611 comparable) — 32× the county median of $85,028. Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $2,682,908 | $24,862 | $85,028 | $363,420 | ↑ Top 25% | +2.1% |
| 2024 | $573,950 | $23,000 | $66,000 | $330,000 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2023 | — | $25,000 | $71,500 | $271,439 | — | +0.0% |
| 2022 | — | $15,000 | $55,000 | $180,463 | — | +100.0% |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.