17108 MORNING GROVE LN 78738
| Owner | KEEVER BRADLEY PRICE & |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0121860222 |
| Short ID | 953045 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | 01 Single-Family Residence |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | 4,542 SF |
| Land SF | 36,926 SF |
| Acres | 0.848 |
| Year Built | 2022 |
| Legal | LOT 76 BLK A MADRONE CANYON |
| Neighborhood | P5180 |
| Land | $557,662 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $557,662 |
| Improvement | $2,079,588 |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | $2,079,588 |
| Market | $2,637,250 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $2,637,250 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) | — |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $2,637,250 |
| Exemptions (−) (HS) | −$527,450 |
|---|---|
| Taxable Value | $2,109,800 |
Appreciation: Market value has risen +138.5% from $1,105,729 (2024) to $2,637,250 (2025), a CAGR of 138.5% over 1 year. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2024→2025), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Land/Vacant parcel countywide rose +28.8%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader land/vacant market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 5 taxing entities is 2.6240% in 2025 (+0.0184% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $55,360. Lazy Nine MUD #1A is the largest single contributor, at 44.3% of the total 2025 levy.
Asset Class: Land / Vacant. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 21% of market value ($557,662 land vs $2,079,588 improvements), about $15/SF of land. Most value sits in the improvements, so building condition, age (~4 yrs), and rent roll drive the underwriting.
Submarket Position: At $2,637,250, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Land/Vacant property in Travis County — county median $85,028 (P25 $24,862 / P75 $363,420, n=35,611). Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +138.5% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $203,546,813 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $102,141. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
9 components · show ▾hide ▴
| Code | Description | SF | In Gross |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1ST | 1st Floor | 4,542 SF | ✓ |
| 095 | HVAC RESIDENTIAL | 4,542 SF | ✗ |
| 041 | GARAGE ATT 1ST F | 1,463 SF | ✓ |
| 011 | PORCH OPEN 1ST F | 907 SF | ✗ |
| 581 | STORAGE ATT | 119 SF | ✓ |
| 251 | BATHROOM | 4 SF | ✓ |
| 252 | BEDROOMS | 4 SF | ✓ |
| 522 | FIREPLACE | 2 SF | ✓ |
| 250 | HALF BATHROOM | 1 SF | ✓ |
Market value changed by 543% in 2023, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U5L Lazy Nine MUD #1A | 1.0000% | 1.0000% | 1.0000% | 1.0000% | 1.0000% | +0.0000% | $23,629.76 | $23,629.76 | Paid |
| ILT Lake Travis ISD | 1.2301% | 1.2121% | 1.0741% | 1.0656% | 1.0397% | -0.0259% | $18,198.71 | $18,198.71 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $7,104.90 | $7,104.90 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $2,231.08 | $2,231.08 | Paid |
| E06 Travis County ESD # 06 | 0.1000% | 0.0867% | 0.0831% | 0.0876% | 0.0904% | +0.0028% | $2,136.11 | $2,136.11 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 2.7993% | 2.7157% | 2.5625% | 2.6056% | 2.6240% | +0.0184% | $53,300.56 | $53,300.56 | Paid |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $1,890,609 | $2,637,250 | -28.3% |
| Assessed Value | $1,890,609 | $2,637,250 | -28.3% |
| Land Value | $314,629 | $557,662 | -43.6% |
| Improvement Value | $1,575,980 | $2,079,588 | -24.2% |
| Taxable Value | $1,512,487 | $2,109,800 | -28.3% |
| Exemptions | HS | HS | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$39,687
Estimated
|
~$53,301
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $2,348,583 | $1,890,609 | -457,974 (-19.5%) |
| Taxable Value | $1,878,866 | $1,512,487 | -366,379 (-19.5%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1,890,609 | $314,629 | $1,575,980 | — | $1,890,609 | $1,512,487 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $2,637,250 | $557,662 | $2,079,588 | — | $2,637,250 | $2,109,800 | ~$53,301 | Partial |
| 2024 | $1,105,729 | — | — | −$548,067 | $557,662 | $— | $54,183 | Verified |
| 2023 | $— | — | — | — | $551,005 | $— | $28,335 | Verified |
| 2022 | $— | — | — | — | $225,000 | $— | $6,110 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -10.9% | -10.9% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +9.9% | +9.9% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +66.0% | +66.0% | ~100% | 2.2600% | Verified |
| 2023 | +542.7% ! | +542.7% | ~100% | 1.9600% | Verified |
| 2022 | base year | — | ~100% | 2.7200% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +1072.1% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -28.3% | +55.1% | +157.3% | +138.5% | 2025 | -28.3% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 100.0% | 83.5% | — | 100.0% | 2025 | 50.4% | 2024 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 2.0200% | 2.0200% | — | 2.0200% | 2025 | 2.0200% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$53,301 | $53,742 | ~$87,993 | $54,183 | 2024 | $53,301 | 2025 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$6,290,047 | ~$2,900,975 | ~2.5801% | ~$74,849 | +138.5% |
| 2027 | ~$15,002,254 | ~$3,191,073 | ~2.5363% | ~$80,936 | +468.9% |
| 2028 | ~$35,781,546 | ~$3,510,180 | ~2.4925% | ~$87,491 | +1256.8% |
| 2029 | ~$85,341,782 | ~$3,861,198 | ~2.4487% | ~$94,547 | +3136.0% |
| 2030 | ~$203,546,813 | ~$4,247,317 | ~2.4048% | ~$102,141 | +7618.1% |
| 2026 | ~$6,237,302 | ~$2,900,975 | ~2.6240% | ~$76,121 | +136.5% |
| 2027 | ~$14,751,707 | ~$3,191,073 | ~2.6240% | ~$83,733 | +459.4% |
| 2028 | ~$34,888,938 | ~$3,510,180 | ~2.6240% | ~$92,106 | +1222.9% |
| 2029 | ~$82,515,062 | ~$3,861,198 | ~2.6240% | ~$101,317 | +3028.8% |
| 2030 | ~$195,154,565 | ~$4,247,317 | ~2.6240% | ~$111,448 | +7299.9% |
| 2026 | ~$6,342,792 | ~$2,900,975 | ~2.5582% | ~$74,213 | +140.5% |
| 2027 | ~$15,254,910 | ~$3,191,073 | ~2.4925% | ~$79,537 | +478.4% |
| 2028 | ~$36,689,251 | ~$3,510,180 | ~2.4267% | ~$85,183 | +1291.2% |
| 2029 | ~$88,240,512 | ~$3,861,198 | ~2.3610% | ~$91,163 | +3245.9% |
| 2030 | ~$212,225,322 | ~$4,247,317 | ~2.2953% | ~$97,487 | +7947.2% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $2,637,250 places it in the top 25% for Land/Vacant properties in Travis County (35611 comparable) — 31× the county median of $85,028. Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $2,637,250 | $24,862 | $85,028 | $363,420 | ↑ Top 25% | +2.1% |
| 2024 | $1,105,729 | $23,000 | $66,000 | $330,000 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2023 | — | $25,000 | $71,500 | $271,439 | — | +0.0% |
| 2022 | — | $15,000 | $55,000 | $180,463 | — | +100.0% |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.