15809 FLINT ROCK RD TX 78738
| Owner | KNOP TODD J & LAURA S |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0129760204 |
| Short ID | 521807 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | D1 Acreage — Qualified Open-Space Land (1-d-1) |
| Valuation | Productivity |
| Improvement SF | 6,385 SF |
| Land SF | 809,606 SF |
| Acres | 18.586 |
| Year Built | 1995 |
| Legal | 17.586AC OF LOT 1&3 TWO CREEKS ADDN [1-D-1W] |
| Neighborhood | R3014 |
| Land | $1,304,836 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $1,304,836 |
| Improvement | $549,012 |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | $549,012 |
| Market | $1,853,848 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $1,853,848 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$1,189,929 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $663,919 |
| Exemptions (−) (HS,OV65) | −$245,348 |
|---|---|
| Taxable Value | $418,571 |
Appreciation: Market value has risen +94.6% from $952,799 (2021) to $1,853,848 (2025), a CAGR of 18.1% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2022→2023), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Agricultural parcel countywide rose +479.4%, so this parcel has lagged the broader agricultural market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 4 taxing entities is 1.6240% in 2025 (+0.0184% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $6,797. Lake Travis ISD is the largest single contributor, at 59.0% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($663,919) is $1,189,929 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Agricultural. Agricultural valuation may be subject to rollback taxes if land use changes.
Value Composition: Land carries 70% of market value ($1,304,836 land vs $549,012 improvements), about $2/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land under a ~31-year-old structure, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $1,853,848, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Agricultural property in Travis County — county median $597,708 (P25 $207,536 / P75 $1,442,275, n=7,602). Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +21.7% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2022–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $4,940,927 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $15,021. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
12 components · show ▾hide ▴
| Code | Description | SF | In Gross |
|---|---|---|---|
| 095 | HVAC RESIDENTIAL | 6,385 SF | ✗ |
| 1ST | 1st Floor | 4,027 SF | ✓ |
| 2ND | 2nd Floor | 2,358 SF | ✓ |
| 011 | PORCH OPEN 1ST F | 1,697 SF | ✗ |
| 041 | GARAGE ATT 1ST F | 1,610 SF | ✓ |
| SO | Sketch Only | 1,224 SF | ✗ |
| 301 | BARN SF | 1,156 SF | ✓ |
| 051 | CARPORT DET 1ST | 1,012 SF | ✗ |
| 512 | DECK UNCOVRED | 192 SF | ✗ |
| 612 | TERRACE UNCOVERD | 120 SF | ✗ |
| 251 | BATHROOM | 5 SF | ✓ |
| 522 | FIREPLACE | 1 SF | ✓ |
| Unit (prop_id) | Owner | Address | Market Value | Assessed Value | Taxable Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 521807 | KNOP TODD J & LAURA S | 15809 FLINT ROCK RD 78738 | $955,208 | $691,997 | $434,387 |
| 564265 | KNOP TODD J & LAURA S | 0.000 | $1,234,631 | $53,113 | $53,113 |
No large value jumps, delinquencies, or data anomalies found for this parcel.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILT Lake Travis ISD | 1.2301% | 1.2121% | 1.0741% | 1.0656% | 1.0397% | -0.0259% | $3,761.54 | $3,761.54 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $1,573.18 | $1,573.18 | Paid |
| E06 Travis County ESD # 06 | 0.1000% | 0.0867% | 0.0831% | 0.0876% | 0.0904% | +0.0028% | $600.18 | $600.18 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $444.47 | $444.47 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 1.7993% | 1.7157% | 1.5625% | 1.6056% | 1.6240% | +0.0184% | $6,379.37 | $6,379.37 | Paid |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $2,189,839 | $1,853,848 | +18.1% |
| Assessed Value | $745,110 | $663,919 | +12.2% |
| Land Value | $1,304,836 | $1,304,836 | +0.0% |
| Improvement Value | $885,003 | $549,012 | +61.2% |
| Taxable Value | $487,500 | $418,571 | +16.5% |
| Exemptions | HS,OV65 | HS,OV65 | |
| HS Cap Loss | -$1,444,729 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$7,917
Estimated
|
~$6,379
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $2,189,839 | $2,189,839 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Taxable Value | $489,549 | $487,500 | -2,049 (-0.4%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2,189,839 | $1,304,836 | $885,003 | −$1,444,729 | $745,110 | $487,500 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $1,853,848 | $1,304,836 | $549,012 | −$1,189,929 | $663,919 | $418,571 | ~$6,379 | Partial |
| 2024 | $1,843,209 | — | — | −$1,344,209 | $499,000 | $— | $13,668 | Verified |
| 2023 | $1,847,267 | — | — | −$1,747,267 | $100,000 | $— | $17,812 | Verified |
| 2022 | $1,029,517 | — | — | −$929,517 | $100,000 | $— | $19,009 | Verified |
| 2021 | $952,799 | — | — | −$832,803 | $119,996 | $— | $15,890 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +0.0% | +18.8% | 4.3% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | -6.3% | +20.0% | 3.6% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +26.1% | +18.9% | 2.8% | 0.5700% | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | +0.2% | 3.0% | 0.6200% | Verified |
| 2022 | -1.7% | -1.3% | 3.0% | 0.6600% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | 3.0% | 1.6700% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +16.2% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | +18.1% | +21.2% | +17.9% | +79.4% | 2023 | -0.2% | 2024 |
| Assessment Ratio | 34.0% | 20.8% | — | 35.8% | 2025 | 5.4% | 2023 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.0600% | 0.0600% | — | 0.0600% | 2025 | 0.0600% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$6,379 | $14,552 | ~$13,235 | $19,009 | 2022 | $6,379 | 2025 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$2,255,387 | ~$730,311 | ~1.5801% | ~$11,540 | +21.7% |
| 2027 | ~$2,743,897 | ~$803,342 | ~1.5363% | ~$12,342 | +48.0% |
| 2028 | ~$3,338,218 | ~$883,676 | ~1.4925% | ~$13,189 | +80.1% |
| 2029 | ~$4,061,267 | ~$972,044 | ~1.4487% | ~$14,082 | +119.1% |
| 2030 | ~$4,940,927 | ~$1,069,248 | ~1.4048% | ~$15,021 | +166.5% |
| 2026 | ~$2,218,310 | ~$730,311 | ~1.6240% | ~$11,860 | +19.7% |
| 2027 | ~$2,654,423 | ~$803,342 | ~1.6240% | ~$13,046 | +43.2% |
| 2028 | ~$3,176,276 | ~$883,676 | ~1.6240% | ~$14,351 | +71.3% |
| 2029 | ~$3,800,723 | ~$972,044 | ~1.6240% | ~$15,786 | +105.0% |
| 2030 | ~$4,547,936 | ~$1,069,248 | ~1.6240% | ~$17,364 | +145.3% |
| 2026 | ~$2,292,464 | ~$730,311 | ~1.5582% | ~$11,380 | +23.7% |
| 2027 | ~$2,834,854 | ~$803,342 | ~1.4925% | ~$11,990 | +52.9% |
| 2028 | ~$3,505,573 | ~$883,676 | ~1.4267% | ~$12,608 | +89.1% |
| 2029 | ~$4,334,983 | ~$972,044 | ~1.3610% | ~$13,230 | +133.8% |
| 2030 | ~$5,360,628 | ~$1,069,248 | ~1.2953% | ~$13,850 | +189.2% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $1,853,848 places it in the top 25% for Agricultural properties in Travis County (7602 comparable) — 3× the county median of $597,708. Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $1,853,848 | $207,536 | $597,708 | $1,442,275 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2024 | $1,843,209 | $217,016 | $597,296 | $1,446,593 | ↑ Top 25% | +23.7% |
| 2023 | $1,847,267 | $167,963 | $453,916 | $1,078,522 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2022 | $1,029,517 | $180,794 | $446,888 | $1,009,883 | ↑ Top 25% | +46.1% |
| 2021 | $952,799 | $33,611 | $103,166 | $247,000 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.