3809 SERENE HILLS DR TX 78738
| Owner | KELLER JOHN C & M PAGE |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0131800124 |
| Short ID | 127798 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | C1 Vacant Lot |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 98,010 SF |
| Acres | 2.250 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | LOT 32 (2.250ACR) MAJESTIC HILLS RANCHETTES |
| Neighborhood | R3014 |
| Land | $841,500 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $841,500 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $841,500 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $841,500 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$599,309 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $242,191 |
| Taxable Value | $242,191 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +379.5% from $175,499 (2021) to $841,500 (2025), a CAGR of 48.0% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2021→2025), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Land/Vacant parcel countywide rose +487.2%, so this parcel has lagged the broader land/vacant market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 4 taxing entities is 1.6240% in 2025 (+0.0184% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $3,933. Lake Travis ISD is the largest single contributor, at 64.0% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($242,191) is $599,309 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Land / Vacant. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($841,500 land vs $0 improvements), about $9/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $841,500, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Land/Vacant property in Travis County — county median $85,028 (P25 $24,862 / P75 $363,420, n=35,611). Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +48.0% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $5,970,744 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $83,879. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Market value changed by 400% in 2024, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILT Lake Travis ISD | 1.2301% | 1.2121% | 1.0741% | 1.0656% | 1.0397% | -0.0259% | $2,518.06 | $2,518.06 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $910.26 | $910.26 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $285.84 | $285.84 | Paid |
| E06 Travis County ESD # 06 | 0.1000% | 0.0867% | 0.0831% | 0.0876% | 0.0904% | +0.0028% | $218.94 | $218.94 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 1.7993% | 1.7157% | 1.5625% | 1.6056% | 1.6240% | +0.0184% | $3,933.10 | $3,933.10 | Paid |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $841,500 | $841,500 | +0.0% |
| Assessed Value | $290,629 | $242,191 | +20.0% |
| Land Value | $841,500 | $841,500 | +0.0% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $290,629 | $242,191 | +20.0% |
| HS Cap Loss | -$550,871 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$4,720
Estimated
|
~$3,933
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $841,500 | $841,500 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Taxable Value | $290,629 | $290,629 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $841,500 | $841,500 | — | −$550,871 | $290,629 | $290,629 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $841,500 | $841,500 | — | −$599,309 | $242,191 | $242,191 | ~$3,933 | Partial |
| 2024 | $— | — | — | — | $600,000 | $— | $3,241 | Verified |
| 2023 | $— | — | — | — | $168,188 | $— | $2,628 | Verified |
| 2022 | $— | — | — | — | $168,188 | $— | $2,886 | Verified |
| 2021 | $175,499 | — | — | — | $175,499 | $— | $3,158 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +0.0% | +20.0% | 34.5% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +0.0% | +20.0% | 28.8% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +400.3% ! | +20.0% | 24.0% | 0.3900% | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | 1.5600% | Verified |
| 2022 | -4.2% | -4.2% | ~100% | 1.7200% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | 1.8000% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +379.5% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | +0.0% | +189.8% | +48.0% | +379.5% | 2025 | +0.0% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 34.5% | 54.4% | — | 100.0% | 2021 | 28.8% | 2025 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.4700% | 0.4700% | — | 0.4700% | 2025 | 0.4700% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$3,933 | $3,545 | ~$46,202 | $3,933 | 2025 | $3,158 | 2021 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$1,245,228 | ~$1,245,228 | ~1.5801% | ~$19,676 | +48.0% |
| 2027 | ~$1,842,654 | ~$1,842,654 | ~1.5363% | ~$28,309 | +119.0% |
| 2028 | ~$2,726,709 | ~$2,726,709 | ~1.4925% | ~$40,696 | +224.0% |
| 2029 | ~$4,034,908 | ~$4,034,908 | ~1.4487% | ~$58,452 | +379.5% |
| 2030 | ~$5,970,744 | ~$5,970,744 | ~1.4048% | ~$83,879 | +609.5% |
| 2026 | ~$1,228,398 | ~$1,228,398 | ~1.6240% | ~$19,949 | +46.0% |
| 2027 | ~$1,793,182 | ~$1,793,182 | ~1.6240% | ~$29,121 | +113.1% |
| 2028 | ~$2,617,637 | ~$2,617,637 | ~1.6240% | ~$42,510 | +211.1% |
| 2029 | ~$3,821,154 | ~$3,821,154 | ~1.6240% | ~$62,054 | +354.1% |
| 2030 | ~$5,578,014 | ~$5,578,014 | ~1.6240% | ~$90,585 | +562.9% |
| 2026 | ~$1,262,058 | ~$1,262,058 | ~1.5582% | ~$19,666 | +50.0% |
| 2027 | ~$1,892,800 | ~$1,892,800 | ~1.4925% | ~$28,250 | +124.9% |
| 2028 | ~$2,838,769 | ~$2,838,769 | ~1.4267% | ~$40,502 | +237.3% |
| 2029 | ~$4,257,507 | ~$4,257,507 | ~1.3610% | ~$57,945 | +405.9% |
| 2030 | ~$6,385,290 | ~$6,385,290 | ~1.2953% | ~$82,706 | +658.8% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $841,500 places it in the top 25% for Land/Vacant properties in Travis County (35611 comparable) — 10× the county median of $85,028. Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $841,500 | $24,862 | $85,028 | $363,420 | ↑ Top 25% | +2.1% |
| 2024 | — | $23,000 | $66,000 | $330,000 | — | +0.0% |
| 2023 | — | $25,000 | $71,500 | $271,439 | — | +0.0% |
| 2022 | — | $15,000 | $55,000 | $180,463 | — | +100.0% |
| 2021 | $175,499 | $6,000 | $14,480 | $80,000 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.