14104 RUNNING DEER TRL TX 78734
| Owner | KAY PHILIP J & YASUKO N KAY |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0145550324 |
| Short ID | 146557 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | C1 Vacant Lot |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 68,328 SF |
| Acres | 1.569 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | LOT 573 APACHE SHORES SEC 2 |
| Neighborhood | R4006 |
| Land | $897,620 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $897,620 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $897,620 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $897,620 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$717,620 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $180,000 |
| Taxable Value | $180,000 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +2922.3% from $29,700 (2021) to $897,620 (2025), a CAGR of 134.5% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2021→2025), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Land/Vacant parcel countywide rose +487.2%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader land/vacant market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 4 taxing entities is 1.6240% in 2025 (+0.0184% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $2,923. Lake Travis ISD is the largest single contributor, at 64.0% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($180,000) is $717,620 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Land / Vacant. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($897,620 land vs $0 improvements), about $13/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $897,620, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Land/Vacant property in Travis County — county median $85,028 (P25 $24,862 / P75 $363,420, n=35,611). Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +134.5% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $63,608,127 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $893,584. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Market value changed by 193% in 2022, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILT Lake Travis ISD | 1.2301% | 1.2121% | 1.0741% | 1.0656% | 1.0397% | -0.0259% | $1,871.46 | $1,871.46 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $676.52 | $676.52 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $212.44 | $212.44 | Paid |
| E06 Travis County ESD # 06 | 0.1000% | 0.0867% | 0.0831% | 0.0876% | 0.0904% | +0.0028% | $162.72 | $162.72 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 1.7993% | 1.7157% | 1.5625% | 1.6056% | 1.6240% | +0.0184% | $2,923.14 | $2,923.14 | Paid |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $897,620 | $897,620 | +0.0% |
| Assessed Value | $216,000 | $180,000 | +20.0% |
| Land Value | $897,620 | $897,620 | +0.0% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $216,000 | $180,000 | +20.0% |
| HS Cap Loss | -$681,620 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$3,508
Estimated
|
~$2,923
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $897,620 | $897,620 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Taxable Value | $216,000 | $216,000 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $897,620 | $897,620 | — | −$681,620 | $216,000 | $216,000 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $897,620 | $897,620 | — | −$717,620 | $180,000 | $180,000 | ~$2,923 | Partial |
| 2024 | $— | — | — | — | $315,000 | $— | $2,408 | Verified |
| 2023 | $— | — | — | — | $200,000 | $— | $1,953 | Verified |
| 2022 | $— | — | — | — | $161,000 | $— | $2,762 | Verified |
| 2021 | $29,700 | — | — | — | $55,000 ! | $— | $990 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +0.0% | +20.0% | 24.1% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +185.0% ! | +20.0% | 20.0% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +57.5% | -25.0% | 47.6% | 0.7600% | Verified |
| 2023 | +24.2% | +24.2% | ~100% | 0.9800% | Verified |
| 2022 | +192.7% ! | +192.7% | ~100% | 1.7200% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | 3.3300% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +1532.0% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | +0.0% | +1461.2% | +134.5% | +2922.3% | 2025 | +0.0% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 24.1% | 76.5% | — | 185.2% | 2021 | 20.1% | 2025 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.3300% | 0.3300% | — | 0.3300% | 2025 | 0.3300% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$2,923 | $1,956 | ~$313,668 | $2,923 | 2025 | $990 | 2021 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$2,104,634 | ~$2,104,634 | ~1.5801% | ~$33,256 | +134.5% |
| 2027 | ~$4,934,698 | ~$4,934,698 | ~1.5363% | ~$75,812 | +449.8% |
| 2028 | ~$11,570,299 | ~$11,570,299 | ~1.4925% | ~$172,685 | +1189.0% |
| 2029 | ~$27,128,676 | ~$27,128,676 | ~1.4487% | ~$393,001 | +2922.3% |
| 2030 | ~$63,608,127 | ~$63,608,127 | ~1.4048% | ~$893,584 | +6986.3% |
| 2026 | ~$2,086,681 | ~$2,086,681 | ~1.6240% | ~$33,887 | +132.5% |
| 2027 | ~$4,850,871 | ~$4,850,871 | ~1.6240% | ~$78,777 | +440.4% |
| 2028 | ~$11,276,735 | ~$11,276,735 | ~1.6240% | ~$183,130 | +1156.3% |
| 2029 | ~$26,214,828 | ~$26,214,828 | ~1.6240% | ~$425,720 | +2820.5% |
| 2030 | ~$60,941,148 | ~$60,941,148 | ~1.6240% | ~$989,664 | +6689.2% |
| 2026 | ~$2,122,586 | ~$2,122,586 | ~1.5582% | ~$33,075 | +136.5% |
| 2027 | ~$5,019,242 | ~$5,019,242 | ~1.4925% | ~$74,911 | +459.2% |
| 2028 | ~$11,868,913 | ~$11,868,913 | ~1.4267% | ~$169,339 | +1222.3% |
| 2029 | ~$28,066,210 | ~$28,066,210 | ~1.3610% | ~$381,981 | +3026.7% |
| 2030 | ~$66,367,673 | ~$66,367,673 | ~1.2953% | ~$859,632 | +7293.7% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $897,620 places it in the top 25% for Land/Vacant properties in Travis County (35611 comparable) — 11× the county median of $85,028. Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $897,620 | $24,862 | $85,028 | $363,420 | ↑ Top 25% | +2.1% |
| 2024 | — | $23,000 | $66,000 | $330,000 | — | +0.0% |
| 2023 | — | $25,000 | $71,500 | $271,439 | — | +0.0% |
| 2022 | — | $15,000 | $55,000 | $180,463 | — | +100.0% |
| 2021 | $29,700 | $6,000 | $14,480 | $80,000 | ↑ Above median | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.