GERONIMO TRL TX 78734
| Owner | SIMMONS ALEX & SARAH |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0147580407 |
| Short ID | 149840 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | C1 Vacant Lot |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 7,596 SF |
| Acres | 0.174 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | LOT 458 APACHE SHORES FIRST INSTALLMENT |
| Neighborhood | R4006 |
| Land | $476,135 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $476,135 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $476,135 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $476,135 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$281,735 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $194,400 |
| Taxable Value | $194,400 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +1487.1% from $30,000 (2021) to $476,135 (2025), a CAGR of 99.6% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2021→2025), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Land/Vacant parcel countywide rose +487.2%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader land/vacant market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 4 taxing entities is 1.6240% in 2025 (+0.0184% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $3,157. Lake Travis ISD is the largest single contributor, at 64.0% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($194,400) is $281,735 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Land / Vacant. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($476,135 land vs $0 improvements), about $63/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $476,135, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Land/Vacant property in Travis County — county median $85,028 (P25 $24,862 / P75 $363,420, n=35,611). Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +99.6% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $15,083,120 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $211,892. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Market value changed by 202% in 2022, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILT Lake Travis ISD | 1.2301% | 1.2121% | 1.0741% | 1.0656% | 1.0397% | -0.0259% | $2,021.18 | $2,021.18 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $730.64 | $730.64 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $229.44 | $229.44 | Paid |
| E06 Travis County ESD # 06 | 0.1000% | 0.0867% | 0.0831% | 0.0876% | 0.0904% | +0.0028% | $175.74 | $175.74 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 1.7993% | 1.7157% | 1.5625% | 1.6056% | 1.6240% | +0.0184% | $3,157.00 | $3,157.00 | Paid |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $226,731 | $476,135 | -52.4% |
| Assessed Value | $226,731 | $194,400 | +16.6% |
| Land Value | $226,731 | $476,135 | -52.4% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $226,731 | $194,400 | +16.6% |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$3,682
Estimated
|
~$3,157
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $226,731 | $226,731 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Taxable Value | $226,731 | $226,731 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $226,731 | $226,731 | — | — | $226,731 | $226,731 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $476,135 | $476,135 | — | −$281,735 | $194,400 | $194,400 | ~$3,157 | Partial |
| 2024 | $— | — | — | — | $472,500 | $— | $2,601 | Verified |
| 2023 | $— | — | — | — | $135,000 | $— | $2,109 | Verified |
| 2022 | $— | — | — | — | $151,200 | $— | $2,594 | Verified |
| 2021 | $30,000 | — | — | — | $50,000 ! | $— | $900 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -52.4% | +16.6% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +0.8% | +20.0% | 40.8% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +250.0% ! | +20.0% | 34.3% | 0.5500% | Verified |
| 2023 | -10.7% | -10.7% | ~100% | 1.5600% | Verified |
| 2022 | +202.4% ! | +202.4% | ~100% | 1.7200% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | 3.0000% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +852.3% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -52.4% | +717.3% | +143.5% | +1487.1% | 2025 | -52.4% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 100.0% | 102.5% | — | 166.7% | 2021 | 40.8% | 2025 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.6600% | 0.6600% | — | 0.6600% | 2025 | 0.6600% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$3,157 | $2,028 | ~$84,406 | $3,157 | 2025 | $900 | 2021 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$950,347 | ~$950,347 | ~1.5801% | ~$15,017 | +99.6% |
| 2027 | ~$1,896,857 | ~$1,896,857 | ~1.5363% | ~$29,142 | +298.4% |
| 2028 | ~$3,786,053 | ~$3,786,053 | ~1.4925% | ~$56,506 | +695.2% |
| 2029 | ~$7,556,818 | ~$7,556,818 | ~1.4487% | ~$109,472 | +1487.1% |
| 2030 | ~$15,083,120 | ~$15,083,120 | ~1.4048% | ~$211,892 | +3067.8% |
| 2026 | ~$940,825 | ~$940,825 | ~1.6240% | ~$15,279 | +97.6% |
| 2027 | ~$1,859,033 | ~$1,859,033 | ~1.6240% | ~$30,190 | +290.4% |
| 2028 | ~$3,673,379 | ~$3,673,379 | ~1.6240% | ~$59,654 | +671.5% |
| 2029 | ~$7,258,456 | ~$7,258,456 | ~1.6240% | ~$117,875 | +1424.5% |
| 2030 | ~$14,342,431 | ~$14,342,431 | ~1.6240% | ~$232,916 | +2912.3% |
| 2026 | ~$959,870 | ~$959,870 | ~1.5582% | ~$14,957 | +101.6% |
| 2027 | ~$1,935,061 | ~$1,935,061 | ~1.4925% | ~$28,880 | +306.4% |
| 2028 | ~$3,901,009 | ~$3,901,009 | ~1.4267% | ~$55,657 | +719.3% |
| 2029 | ~$7,864,285 | ~$7,864,285 | ~1.3610% | ~$107,033 | +1551.7% |
| 2030 | ~$15,854,098 | ~$15,854,098 | ~1.2953% | ~$205,351 | +3229.7% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $476,135 places it in the top 25% for Land/Vacant properties in Travis County (35611 comparable) — 6× the county median of $85,028. Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $476,135 | $24,862 | $85,028 | $363,420 | ↑ Top 25% | +2.1% |
| 2024 | — | $23,000 | $66,000 | $330,000 | — | +0.0% |
| 2023 | — | $25,000 | $71,500 | $271,439 | — | +0.0% |
| 2022 | — | $15,000 | $55,000 | $180,463 | — | +100.0% |
| 2021 | $30,000 | $6,000 | $14,480 | $80,000 | ↑ Above median | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.