5200 CANYON OAKS DR TX 78645
| Owner | BOU MIGUEL E & MILAYKA M |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0172830167 |
| Short ID | 727349 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | C1 Vacant Lot |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 35,545 SF |
| Acres | 0.816 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | LOT 16 CANYON OAKS PHS 2 |
| Neighborhood | S09WF |
| Land | $1,313,000 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $1,313,000 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $639,936 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $639,936 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) | — |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $639,936 |
| Taxable Value | $639,936 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +216.8% from $202,000 (2021) to $639,936 (2025), a CAGR of 33.4% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2023→2025), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Land/Vacant parcel countywide rose +487.2%, so this parcel has lagged the broader land/vacant market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 6 taxing entities is 2.1307% in 2025 (+0.0473% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $13,635. Lago Vista ISD is the largest single contributor, at 47.7% of the total 2025 levy.
Asset Class: Land / Vacant. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 205% of market value ($1,313,000 land vs $0 improvements), about $37/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $639,936, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Land/Vacant property in Travis County — county median $85,028 (P25 $24,862 / P75 $363,420, n=35,611). Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +33.4% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $2,704,693 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $45,883. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Market value changed by 116% in 2023, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILV Lago Vista ISD | 1.2020% | 1.1846% | 1.0192% | 1.0169% | 1.0169% | +0.0000% | $6,507.51 | $6,507.51 | Paid |
| CLV City of Lago Vista | 0.6070% | 0.4283% | 0.4139% | 0.4231% | 0.4200% | -0.0031% | $2,687.73 | $2,687.73 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $2,405.17 | $2,405.17 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $755.27 | $755.27 | Paid |
| E01 Travis County ESD # 01 | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | +0.0000% | $639.94 | $639.94 | Paid |
| E07 Travis County ESD # 07 | 0.1000% | 0.0784% | 0.0842% | 0.0910% | 0.1000% | +0.0090% | $639.72 | $639.72 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 2.4782% | 2.2082% | 2.0226% | 2.0834% | 2.1307% | +0.0473% | $13,635.34 | $13,635.34 | Paid |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $545,400 | $639,936 | -14.8% |
| Assessed Value | $545,400 | $639,936 | -14.8% |
| Land Value | $545,400 | $1,313,000 | -58.5% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $545,400 | $639,936 | -14.8% |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$11,621
Estimated
|
~$13,635
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $545,400 | $545,400 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Taxable Value | $545,400 | $545,400 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $545,400 | $545,400 | — | — | $545,400 | $545,400 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $639,936 | $1,313,000 | — | — | $639,936 | $639,936 | ~$13,635 | Partial |
| 2024 | $— | — | — | — | $1,313,000 | $— | $11,110 | Verified |
| 2023 | $205,918 | — | — | — | $444,400 ! | $— | $8,989 | Verified |
| 2022 | $— | — | — | — | $202,000 | $— | $4,547 | Verified |
| 2021 | $202,000 | — | — | — | $444,400 ! | $— | $11,013 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -14.8% | -14.8% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | -51.3% | +20.0% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +195.5% ! | +20.0% | 40.6% | 0.8500% | Verified |
| 2023 | +115.8% ! | +115.8% | ~100% | 2.0200% | Verified |
| 2022 | -53.7% | -53.7% | ~100% | 2.2100% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | 5.4500% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +44.0% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -14.8% | +66.0% | +38.0% | +210.8% | 2025 | -14.8% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 100.0% | 158.9% | — | 220.0% | 2021 | 100.0% | 2025 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 2.1300% | 2.1300% | — | 2.1300% | 2025 | 2.1300% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$13,635 | $11,212 | ~$30,039 | $13,635 | 2025 | $8,989 | 2023 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$853,754 | ~$853,754 | ~2.0439% | ~$17,450 | +33.4% |
| 2027 | ~$1,139,014 | ~$1,139,014 | ~1.9570% | ~$22,291 | +78.0% |
| 2028 | ~$1,519,586 | ~$1,519,586 | ~1.8702% | ~$28,419 | +137.5% |
| 2029 | ~$2,027,317 | ~$2,027,317 | ~1.7833% | ~$36,153 | +216.8% |
| 2030 | ~$2,704,693 | ~$2,704,693 | ~1.6964% | ~$45,883 | +322.7% |
| 2026 | ~$840,955 | ~$840,955 | ~2.1307% | ~$17,919 | +31.4% |
| 2027 | ~$1,105,120 | ~$1,105,120 | ~2.1307% | ~$23,547 | +72.7% |
| 2028 | ~$1,452,265 | ~$1,452,265 | ~2.1307% | ~$30,944 | +126.9% |
| 2029 | ~$1,908,457 | ~$1,908,457 | ~2.1307% | ~$40,664 | +198.2% |
| 2030 | ~$2,507,949 | ~$2,507,949 | ~2.1307% | ~$53,438 | +291.9% |
| 2026 | ~$866,553 | ~$866,553 | ~2.0004% | ~$17,335 | +35.4% |
| 2027 | ~$1,173,420 | ~$1,173,420 | ~1.8702% | ~$21,945 | +83.4% |
| 2028 | ~$1,588,957 | ~$1,588,957 | ~1.7399% | ~$27,646 | +148.3% |
| 2029 | ~$2,151,645 | ~$2,151,645 | ~1.6096% | ~$34,632 | +236.2% |
| 2030 | ~$2,913,595 | ~$2,913,595 | ~1.4793% | ~$43,100 | +355.3% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $639,936 places it in the top 25% for Land/Vacant properties in Travis County (35611 comparable) — 8× the county median of $85,028. Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $639,936 | $24,862 | $85,028 | $363,420 | ↑ Top 25% | +2.1% |
| 2024 | — | $23,000 | $66,000 | $330,000 | — | +0.0% |
| 2023 | $205,918 | $25,000 | $71,500 | $271,439 | ↑ Above median | +0.0% |
| 2022 | — | $15,000 | $55,000 | $180,463 | — | +100.0% |
| 2021 | $202,000 | $6,000 | $14,480 | $80,000 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.