8913 NORTHLAKE HILLS CIR TX 78645
| Owner | KUNG GREG |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0178550107 |
| Short ID | 458452 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | C1 Vacant Lot |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 150,495 SF |
| Acres | 3.455 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | LOT 19 NORTHLAKE HILLS SEC 3 |
| Neighborhood | S02WF |
| Land | $820,000 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $820,000 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $820,000 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $820,000 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) | — |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $820,000 |
| Taxable Value | $820,000 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +117.4% from $377,200 (2021) to $820,000 (2025), a CAGR of 21.4% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2021→2025), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Land/Vacant parcel countywide rose +487.2%, so this parcel has lagged the broader land/vacant market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 6 taxing entities is 2.1088% in 2025 (+0.0560% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $17,292. Lago Vista ISD is the largest single contributor, at 48.2% of the total 2025 levy.
Asset Class: Land / Vacant. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($820,000 land vs $0 improvements), about $5/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $820,000, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Land/Vacant property in Travis County — county median $85,028 (P25 $24,862 / P75 $363,420, n=35,611). Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +21.4% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $2,164,545 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $38,040. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Market value changed by 150% in 2024, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILV Lago Vista ISD | 1.2020% | 1.1846% | 1.0192% | 1.0169% | 1.0169% | +0.0000% | $8,338.58 | $8,338.58 | Paid |
| CJO City of Jonestown | 0.5188% | 0.4190% | 0.3905% | 0.3925% | 0.3981% | +0.0056% | $3,264.42 | $3,264.42 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $3,081.93 | $3,081.93 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $967.79 | $967.79 | Paid |
| E01 Travis County ESD # 01 | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | +0.0000% | $820.00 | $820.00 | Paid |
| E07 Travis County ESD # 07 | 0.1000% | 0.0784% | 0.0842% | 0.0910% | 0.1000% | +0.0090% | $819.73 | $819.73 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 2.3900% | 2.1989% | 1.9992% | 2.0528% | 2.1088% | +0.0560% | $17,292.45 | $17,292.45 | Paid |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $820,000 | $820,000 | +0.0% |
| Assessed Value | $820,000 | $820,000 | +0.0% |
| Land Value | $820,000 | $820,000 | +0.0% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $820,000 | $820,000 | +0.0% |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$17,292
Estimated
|
~$17,292
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $820,000 | $820,000 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Taxable Value | $820,000 | $820,000 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $820,000 | $820,000 | — | — | $820,000 | $820,000 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $820,000 | $820,000 | — | — | $820,000 | $820,000 | ~$17,292 | Partial |
| 2024 | $— | — | — | — | $1,640,000 | $— | $16,160 | Verified |
| 2023 | $— | — | — | — | $656,000 | $— | $13,115 | Verified |
| 2022 | $— | — | — | — | $656,000 | $— | $14,425 | Verified |
| 2021 | $377,200 | — | — | — | $377,200 | $— | $9,015 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | -50.0% | +4.2% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +150.0% ! | +20.0% | 48.0% | 0.9900% | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | 2.0000% | Verified |
| 2022 | +73.9% | +73.9% | ~100% | 2.2000% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | 2.3900% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +117.4% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | +0.0% | +58.7% | +21.4% | +117.4% | 2025 | +0.0% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | 100.0% | 2021 | 100.0% | 2021 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 2.1100% | 2.1100% | — | 2.1100% | 2025 | 2.1100% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$17,292 | $13,154 | ~$28,516 | $17,292 | 2025 | $9,015 | 2021 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$995,691 | ~$995,691 | ~2.0385% | ~$20,298 | +21.4% |
| 2027 | ~$1,209,024 | ~$1,209,024 | ~1.9683% | ~$23,797 | +47.4% |
| 2028 | ~$1,468,066 | ~$1,468,066 | ~1.8980% | ~$27,864 | +79.0% |
| 2029 | ~$1,782,609 | ~$1,782,609 | ~1.8277% | ~$32,581 | +117.4% |
| 2030 | ~$2,164,545 | ~$2,164,545 | ~1.7574% | ~$38,040 | +164.0% |
| 2026 | ~$979,291 | ~$979,291 | ~2.1088% | ~$20,652 | +19.4% |
| 2027 | ~$1,169,524 | ~$1,169,524 | ~2.1088% | ~$24,663 | +42.6% |
| 2028 | ~$1,396,712 | ~$1,396,712 | ~2.1088% | ~$29,454 | +70.3% |
| 2029 | ~$1,668,033 | ~$1,668,033 | ~2.1088% | ~$35,176 | +103.4% |
| 2030 | ~$1,992,060 | ~$1,992,060 | ~2.1088% | ~$42,009 | +142.9% |
| 2026 | ~$1,012,091 | ~$1,012,091 | ~2.0034% | ~$20,276 | +23.4% |
| 2027 | ~$1,249,180 | ~$1,249,180 | ~1.8980% | ~$23,709 | +52.3% |
| 2028 | ~$1,541,808 | ~$1,541,808 | ~1.7925% | ~$27,638 | +88.0% |
| 2029 | ~$1,902,988 | ~$1,902,988 | ~1.6871% | ~$32,106 | +132.1% |
| 2030 | ~$2,348,775 | ~$2,348,775 | ~1.5817% | ~$37,150 | +186.4% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $820,000 places it in the top 25% for Land/Vacant properties in Travis County (35611 comparable) — 10× the county median of $85,028. Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $820,000 | $24,862 | $85,028 | $363,420 | ↑ Top 25% | +2.1% |
| 2024 | — | $23,000 | $66,000 | $330,000 | — | +0.0% |
| 2023 | — | $25,000 | $71,500 | $271,439 | — | +0.0% |
| 2022 | — | $15,000 | $55,000 | $180,463 | — | +100.0% |
| 2021 | $377,200 | $6,000 | $14,480 | $80,000 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.