VANCE CIRCLE RD TX 78645
| Owner | PAN HILLS DEVELOPMENT LLC & |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0183670103 |
| Short ID | 182153 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | E Rural Land (Not Qualified for Open-Space Appraisal) |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 13,063,644 SF |
| Acres | 299.900 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | LOTS 12-14 & 18-19 PANORAMIC HILLS & ABS 2669 SUR 54 JUNG R J 299.90 AC |
| Neighborhood | T1314MH |
| Land | $5,998,000 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $5,998,000 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $5,998,000 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $5,998,000 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$2,398,000 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $3,600,000 |
| Taxable Value | $3,600,000 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +561.4% from $906,821 (2021) to $5,998,000 (2025), a CAGR of 60.4% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Growth has been fairly evenly spread across these years rather than concentrated in one jump. Over the same span, the median Agricultural parcel countywide rose +479.4%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader agricultural market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 8 taxing entities is 3.2991% in 2025 (+0.0581% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $118,769. Leander ISD is the largest single contributor, at 45.2% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($3,600,000) is $2,398,000 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Agricultural. Agricultural valuation may be subject to rollback taxes if land use changes. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($5,998,000 land vs $0 improvements), about $0/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $5,998,000, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Agricultural property in Travis County — county median $597,708 (P25 $207,536 / P75 $1,442,275, n=7,602). Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +87.7% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2022–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $139,787,299 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $152,676. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
| Entity | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | Rate Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travis County | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +1,130 |
| Travis Central Health | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +362 |
| Travis County ESD # 07 | 0.0910% | 0.1000% | +323 |
| City of Jonestown | 0.3925% | 0.3981% | +151 |
| Austin Community College | 0.1013% | 0.1034% | +68 |
| Leander ISD | 1.0869% | 1.0869% | +0 |
| Lago Vista ISD | 1.0169% | 1.0169% | +0 |
| Travis County ESD # 01 | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | +0 |
Market value changed by 536% in 2023, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILE Leander ISD | 1.3370% | 1.2746% | 1.1087% | 1.0869% | 1.0869% | +0.0000% | $35,215.56 | $22,853.35 | $12,362.21 |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $13,530.42 | $8,780.60 | $4,749.82 |
| CJO City of Jonestown | 0.5188% | 0.4190% | 0.3905% | 0.3925% | 0.3981% | +0.0056% | $10,748.70 | $6,975.43 | $3,773.27 |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $4,248.83 | $2,757.30 | $1,491.53 |
| ILV Lago Vista ISD | 1.2020% | 1.1846% | 1.0192% | 1.0169% | 1.0169% | +0.0000% | $3,660.84 | $2,375.73 | $1,285.11 |
| E01 Travis County ESD # 01 | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | +0.0000% | $3,600.00 | $2,336.25 | $1,263.75 |
| E07 Travis County ESD # 07 | 0.1000% | 0.0784% | 0.0842% | 0.0910% | 0.1000% | +0.0090% | $3,598.81 | $2,335.48 | $1,263.33 |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1048% | 0.0987% | 0.0986% | 0.1013% | 0.1034% | +0.0021% | $3,350.16 | $2,174.11 | $1,176.05 |
| Combined Rate | 3.8318% | 3.5722% | 3.2065% | 3.2410% | 3.2991% | +0.0581% | $77,953.32 | $50,588.25 | $27,365.07 |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $5,998,000 | $5,998,000 | +0.0% |
| Assessed Value | $4,320,000 | $3,600,000 | +20.0% |
| Land Value | $5,998,000 | $5,998,000 | +0.0% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $4,320,000 | $3,600,000 | +20.0% |
| HS Cap Loss | -$1,678,000 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$142,523
Estimated
|
$77,953 | ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $5,998,000 | $5,998,000 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Taxable Value | $4,320,000 | $4,320,000 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $5,998,000 | $5,998,000 | — | −$1,678,000 | $4,320,000 | $4,320,000 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $5,998,000 | $5,998,000 | — | −$2,398,000 | $3,600,000 | $3,600,000 | $77,953 | Verified |
| 2024 | $3,000,000 | — | — | — | $3,000,000 | $— | $63,266 | Verified |
| 2023 | $907,000 | — | — | — | $5,998,000 ! | $— | $53,693 | Verified |
| 2022 | $906,838 | — | — | −$6,544 | $900,294 | $— | $17,799 | Verified |
| 2021 | $906,821 | — | — | −$6,521 | $900,300 | $— | $19,067 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +0.0% | +20.0% | 72.0% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +99.9% ! | +20.0% | 60.0% | 1.3000% | Verified |
| 2024 | -50.4% | -50.4% | ~100% | 2.1100% | Verified |
| 2023 | +535.5% ! | +535.5% | ~100% | 0.8900% | Verified |
| 2022 | +5.0% | +5.0% | ~100% | 1.8700% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | 2.1000% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +561.4% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | +0.0% | +66.1% | +87.7% | +230.8% | 2024 | +0.0% | 2022 |
| Assessment Ratio | 72.0% | 182.0% | — | 661.3% | 2023 | 60.0% | 2025 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 1.3000% | 1.3000% | — | 1.3000% | 2025 | 1.3000% | 2025 |
| Tax Amount | $77,953 | $46,356 | ~$138,983 | $77,953 | 2025 | $17,799 | 2022 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$11,258,971 | ~$3,960,000 | ~3.1660% | ~$125,373 | +87.7% |
| 2027 | ~$21,134,451 | ~$4,356,000 | ~3.0328% | ~$132,109 | +252.4% |
| 2028 | ~$39,671,919 | ~$4,791,600 | ~2.8997% | ~$138,940 | +561.4% |
| 2029 | ~$74,468,990 | ~$5,270,760 | ~2.7665% | ~$145,815 | +1141.6% |
| 2030 | ~$139,787,299 | ~$5,797,836 | ~2.6333% | ~$152,676 | +2230.6% |
| 2026 | ~$11,139,011 | ~$3,960,000 | ~3.2991% | ~$130,646 | +85.7% |
| 2027 | ~$20,686,491 | ~$4,356,000 | ~3.2991% | ~$143,710 | +244.9% |
| 2028 | ~$38,417,315 | ~$4,791,600 | ~3.2991% | ~$158,081 | +540.5% |
| 2029 | ~$71,345,600 | ~$5,270,760 | ~3.2991% | ~$173,889 | +1089.5% |
| 2030 | ~$132,497,406 | ~$5,797,836 | ~3.2991% | ~$191,278 | +2109.0% |
| 2026 | ~$11,378,931 | ~$3,960,000 | ~3.0994% | ~$122,736 | +89.7% |
| 2027 | ~$21,587,209 | ~$4,356,000 | ~2.8997% | ~$126,309 | +259.9% |
| 2028 | ~$40,953,545 | ~$4,791,600 | ~2.6999% | ~$129,369 | +582.8% |
| 2029 | ~$77,693,827 | ~$5,270,760 | ~2.5002% | ~$131,778 | +1195.3% |
| 2030 | ~$147,394,585 | ~$5,797,836 | ~2.3004% | ~$133,375 | +2357.4% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $5,998,000 places it in the top 25% for Agricultural properties in Travis County (7602 comparable) — 10× the county median of $597,708. Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $5,998,000 | $207,536 | $597,708 | $1,442,275 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2024 | $3,000,000 | $217,016 | $597,296 | $1,446,593 | ↑ Top 25% | +23.7% |
| 2023 | $907,000 | $167,963 | $453,916 | $1,078,522 | ↑ Above median | +0.0% |
| 2022 | $906,838 | $180,794 | $446,888 | $1,009,883 | ↑ Above median | +46.1% |
| 2021 | $906,821 | $33,611 | $103,166 | $247,000 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.