15017 F M RD 969 TX 78724
| Owner | DAVIS ROBERT D |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0202500409 |
| Short ID | 190509 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | D1 Acreage — Qualified Open-Space Land (1-d-1) |
| Valuation | Productivity |
| Improvement SF | 2,755 SF |
| Land SF | 411,642 SF |
| Acres | 9.450 |
| Year Built | 1977 |
| Legal | ABS 5 SUR 33 BURLESON J ACR 8.45 (1-D-1) |
| Neighborhood | _RGN405 |
| Land | $1,010,224 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $1,010,224 |
| Improvement | $183,397 |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | $183,397 |
| Market | $1,193,621 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $1,193,621 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$902,333 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $291,288 |
| Taxable Value | $291,288 |
|---|
| Total Due | $4,741.73 |
|---|---|
| First Delinquent | — |
Appreciation: Market value has risen +606.2% from $169,031 (2021) to $1,193,621 (2025), a CAGR of 63.0% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2024→2025), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Agricultural parcel countywide rose +479.4%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader agricultural market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 5 taxing entities is 1.5728% in 2025 (-0.0078% vs 2024 — rates decreased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $4,581. Del Valle ISD is the largest single contributor, at 60.3% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($291,288) is $902,333 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Agricultural. Agricultural valuation may be subject to rollback taxes if land use changes.
Value Composition: Land carries 85% of market value ($1,010,224 land vs $183,397 improvements), about $2/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land under a ~49-year-old structure, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $1,193,621, this parcel sits in the upper-middle (50th–75th percentile) of Agricultural property in Travis County — county median $597,708 (P25 $207,536 / P75 $1,442,275, n=7,602). Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +45.0% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2022–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $7,641,347 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $5,717. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
Delinquent Taxes: $4,741.73 in unpaid taxes . These become a lien on the property and transfer to the buyer at closing unless negotiated otherwise.
9 components · show ▾hide ▴
| Code | Description | SF | In Gross |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1ST | 1st Floor | 2,755 SF | ✓ |
| 095 | HVAC RESIDENTIAL | 2,755 SF | ✗ |
| 041 | GARAGE ATT 1ST F | 490 SF | ✓ |
| 031 | GARAGE DET 1ST F | 484 SF | ✓ |
| 612 | TERRACE UNCOVERD | 309 SF | ✗ |
| 011 | PORCH OPEN 1ST F | 12 SF | ✗ |
| 251 | BATHROOM | 4 SF | ✓ |
| 522 | FIREPLACE | 1 SF | ✓ |
| 302 | BARN FV | 1 SF | ✓ |
| Unit (prop_id) | Owner | Address | Market Value | Assessed Value | Taxable Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 190509 | DAVIS ROBERT D | 15017 F M RD 969 78724 | $282,973 | $282,973 | $282,973 |
| 190510 | DAVIS ROBERT D | 8.450 | $802,327 | $1,065 | $1,065 |
Market value changed by 80% in 2025, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
This parcel has unpaid taxes on record. Delinquent taxes are a lien on the property and transfer to the buyer at closing unless negotiated otherwise.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IDV Del Valle ISD | 1.2020% | 1.1846% | 1.0028% | 0.9969% | 0.9489% | -0.0480% | $2,764.03 | $276.35 | $2,487.68 |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $1,094.79 | $109.46 | $985.33 |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $343.79 | $34.37 | $309.42 |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1048% | 0.0987% | 0.0986% | 0.1013% | 0.1034% | +0.0021% | $301.19 | $30.11 | $271.08 |
| E04 Travis County ESD # 04 | 0.0800% | 0.0600% | 0.0400% | 0.0300% | 0.0266% | -0.0034% | $77.48 | $7.74 | $69.74 |
| Combined Rate | 1.8560% | 1.7602% | 1.5467% | 1.5806% | 1.5728% | -0.0078% | $4,581.28 | $458.03 | $4,123.25 |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $1,085,300 | $1,193,621 | -9.1% |
| Assessed Value | $284,038 | $291,288 | -2.5% |
| Land Value | $897,277 | $1,010,224 | -11.2% |
| Improvement Value | $188,023 | $183,397 | +2.5% |
| Taxable Value | $284,038 | $291,288 | -2.5% |
| HS Cap Loss | -$801,262 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$4,467
Estimated
|
~$4,581
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $1,085,300 | $1,085,300 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Taxable Value | $284,038 | $284,038 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1,085,300 | $897,277 | $188,023 | −$801,262 | $284,038 | $284,038 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $1,193,621 | $1,010,224 | $183,397 | −$902,333 | $291,288 | $291,288 | ~$4,581 | Partial |
| 2024 | $547,508 | — | — | −$488,118 | $59,390 | $— | $273 | Verified |
| 2023 | $511,780 | — | — | −$468,470 | $43,310 | $— | $289 | Verified |
| 2022 | $391,818 | — | — | −$348,508 | $43,310 | $— | $998 | Verified |
| 2021 | $169,031 | — | — | −$126,718 | $42,313 | $— | $1,091 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -11.2% | +7.7% | 0.1% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +80.0% ! | +31.2% | 0.1% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +37.1% | -12.7% | 0.2% | 0.0300% | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | -7.6% | 0.2% | 0.0300% | Verified |
| 2022 | -6.6% | -99.5% | 0.3% | 0.1100% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | 47.4% | 0.6500% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +130.5% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -9.1% | +55.7% | +47.9% | +131.8% | 2022 | -9.1% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 26.2% | 17.7% | — | 26.2% | 2026 | 8.5% | 2023 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.0000% | 0.0000% | — | 0.0000% | 2025 | 0.0000% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$4,581 | $1,446 | ~$5,270 | $4,581 | 2025 | $273 | 2024 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$1,730,323 | ~$320,417 | ~1.5020% | ~$4,813 | +45.0% |
| 2027 | ~$2,508,348 | ~$352,458 | ~1.4312% | ~$5,044 | +110.1% |
| 2028 | ~$3,636,206 | ~$387,704 | ~1.3604% | ~$5,274 | +204.6% |
| 2029 | ~$5,271,197 | ~$426,475 | ~1.2896% | ~$5,500 | +341.6% |
| 2030 | ~$7,641,347 | ~$469,122 | ~1.2188% | ~$5,717 | +540.2% |
| 2026 | ~$1,706,450 | ~$320,417 | ~1.5728% | ~$5,039 | +43.0% |
| 2027 | ~$2,439,613 | ~$352,458 | ~1.5728% | ~$5,543 | +104.4% |
| 2028 | ~$3,487,772 | ~$387,704 | ~1.5728% | ~$6,098 | +192.2% |
| 2029 | ~$4,986,265 | ~$426,475 | ~1.5728% | ~$6,707 | +317.7% |
| 2030 | ~$7,128,572 | ~$469,122 | ~1.5728% | ~$7,378 | +497.2% |
| 2026 | ~$1,754,195 | ~$320,417 | ~1.4666% | ~$4,699 | +47.0% |
| 2027 | ~$2,578,039 | ~$352,458 | ~1.3604% | ~$4,795 | +116.0% |
| 2028 | ~$3,788,793 | ~$387,704 | ~1.2542% | ~$4,862 | +217.4% |
| 2029 | ~$5,568,169 | ~$426,475 | ~1.1480% | ~$4,896 | +366.5% |
| 2030 | ~$8,183,213 | ~$469,122 | ~1.0417% | ~$4,887 | +585.6% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $1,193,621 places it in the 50th–75th percentile for Agricultural properties in Travis County (7602 comparable) — +100% above the county median of $597,708. Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $1,193,621 | $207,536 | $597,708 | $1,442,275 | ↑ Above median | +0.0% |
| 2024 | $547,508 | $217,016 | $597,296 | $1,446,593 | ↓ Below median | +23.7% |
| 2023 | $511,780 | $167,963 | $453,916 | $1,078,522 | ↑ Above median | +0.0% |
| 2022 | $391,818 | $180,794 | $446,888 | $1,009,883 | ↓ Below median | +46.1% |
| 2021 | $169,031 | $33,611 | $103,166 | $247,000 | ↑ Above median | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.