21312 HOG EYE RD TX 78653
| Owner | NL MCKINNIS NICHOLS LLC |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0218800204 |
| Short ID | 214399 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | D1 Acreage — Qualified Open-Space Land (1-d-1) |
| Valuation | Productivity |
| Improvement SF | 3,363 SF |
| Land SF | 2,350,236 SF |
| Acres | 53.954 |
| Year Built | 1975 |
| Legal | ABS 1 SUR 22 ALEXANDER A ACR 52.954 (1-D-1W) |
| Neighborhood | _RGN307 |
| Land | $2,034,497 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $2,034,497 |
| Improvement | $342,724 |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | $342,724 |
| Market | $2,377,221 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $2,377,221 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$2,009,645 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $367,576 |
| Taxable Value | $367,576 |
|---|
| Total Due | $1,761.38 |
|---|---|
| First Delinquent | — |
Appreciation: Market value has risen +780.0% from $270,136 (2021) to $2,377,221 (2025), a CAGR of 72.2% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2024→2025), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Agricultural parcel countywide rose +479.4%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader agricultural market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 5 taxing entities is 1.7787% in 2025 (+0.0436% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $6,538. Manor ISD is the largest single contributor, at 60.8% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($367,576) is $2,009,645 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Agricultural. Agricultural valuation may be subject to rollback taxes if land use changes.
Value Composition: Land carries 86% of market value ($2,034,497 land vs $342,724 improvements), about $1/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land under a ~51-year-old structure, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $2,377,221, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Agricultural property in Travis County — county median $597,708 (P25 $207,536 / P75 $1,442,275, n=7,602). Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +99.8% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2022–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $75,672,378 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $8,699. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
Delinquent Taxes: $1,761.38 in unpaid taxes . These become a lien on the property and transfer to the buyer at closing unless negotiated otherwise.
9 components · show ▾hide ▴
| Code | Description | SF | In Gross |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1ST | 1st Floor | 3,363 SF | ✓ |
| 095 | HVAC RESIDENTIAL | 3,363 SF | ✗ |
| 011 | PORCH OPEN 1ST F | 539 SF | ✗ |
| 061 | CARPORT ATT 1ST | 452 SF | ✗ |
| 251 | BATHROOM | 3 SF | ✓ |
| 252 | BEDROOMS | 3 SF | ✓ |
| 289 | SHED FV | 1 SF | ✓ |
| 302 | BARN FV | 1 SF | ✓ |
| 522 | FIREPLACE | 1 SF | ✓ |
| Unit (prop_id) | Owner | Address | Market Value | Assessed Value | Taxable Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 214399 | NL MCKINNIS NICHOLS LLC | 21312 HOG EYE RD 78653 | $305,592 | $305,592 | $305,592 |
| 214400 | NL MCKINNIS NICHOLS LLC | 20.000 | $1,588,620 | $7,382 | $7,382 |
Market value changed by 197% in 2024, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
This parcel has unpaid taxes on record. Delinquent taxes are a lien on the property and transfer to the buyer at closing unless negotiated otherwise.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMA Manor ISD | 1.3520% | 1.3520% | 1.0861% | 1.0814% | 1.0814% | +0.0000% | $3,591.65 | $2,660.45 | $931.20 |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $1,248.30 | $924.65 | $323.65 |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $391.99 | $290.36 | $101.63 |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1048% | 0.0987% | 0.0986% | 0.1013% | 0.1034% | +0.0021% | $343.42 | $254.38 | $89.04 |
| E12 Travis County ESD # 12 | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.0982% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | +0.0000% | $332.13 | $246.02 | $86.11 |
| Combined Rate | 2.0260% | 1.9676% | 1.6882% | 1.7351% | 1.7787% | +0.0436% | $5,907.49 | $4,375.86 | $1,531.63 |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $1,894,212 | $2,377,221 | -20.3% |
| Assessed Value | $312,974 | $367,576 | -14.9% |
| Land Value | $1,618,620 | $2,034,497 | -20.4% |
| Improvement Value | $275,592 | $342,724 | -19.6% |
| Taxable Value | $312,974 | $367,576 | -14.9% |
| HS Cap Loss | -$1,581,238 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$5,567
Estimated
|
~$5,907
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $1,894,212 | $1,894,212 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Taxable Value | $312,974 | $312,974 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1,894,212 | $1,618,620 | $275,592 | −$1,581,238 | $312,974 | $312,974 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $2,377,221 | $2,034,497 | $342,724 | −$2,009,645 | $367,576 | $367,576 | ~$5,907 | Partial |
| 2024 | $465,358 | — | — | −$427,650 | $37,708 | $— | $5,325 | Verified |
| 2023 | $481,126 | — | — | −$468,418 | $12,708 | $— | $7,965 | Verified |
| 2022 | $298,091 | — | — | −$285,383 | $12,708 | $— | $9,603 | Verified |
| 2021 | $270,136 | — | — | −$262,562 | $7,574 | $— | $6,181 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -20.4% | +3.5% | 0.5% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +0.0% | +9.4% | 0.4% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +196.7% ! | +1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2300% | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | -99.0% | 1.0% | 0.7000% | Verified |
| 2022 | +67.8% | +9546.5% | ~100% | 0.8300% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | 1.7% | 2.2900% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +397.9% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -20.3% | +91.8% | +110.0% | +410.8% | 2025 | -20.3% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 16.5% | 8.3% | — | 16.5% | 2026 | 2.6% | 2023 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.0100% | 0.0100% | — | 0.0100% | 2025 | 0.0100% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$5,907 | $6,996 | ~$7,808 | $9,603 | 2022 | $5,325 | 2024 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$4,749,448 | ~$404,334 | ~1.7168% | ~$6,942 | +99.8% |
| 2027 | ~$9,488,918 | ~$444,767 | ~1.6550% | ~$7,361 | +299.2% |
| 2028 | ~$18,957,901 | ~$489,244 | ~1.5932% | ~$7,795 | +697.5% |
| 2029 | ~$37,875,975 | ~$538,168 | ~1.5314% | ~$8,241 | +1493.3% |
| 2030 | ~$75,672,378 | ~$591,985 | ~1.4695% | ~$8,699 | +3083.2% |
| 2026 | ~$4,701,903 | ~$404,334 | ~1.7787% | ~$7,192 | +97.8% |
| 2027 | ~$9,299,891 | ~$444,767 | ~1.7787% | ~$7,911 | +291.2% |
| 2028 | ~$18,394,246 | ~$489,244 | ~1.7787% | ~$8,702 | +673.8% |
| 2029 | ~$36,381,964 | ~$538,168 | ~1.7787% | ~$9,572 | +1430.4% |
| 2030 | ~$71,959,857 | ~$591,985 | ~1.7787% | ~$10,529 | +2927.1% |
| 2026 | ~$4,796,992 | ~$404,334 | ~1.6859% | ~$6,817 | +101.8% |
| 2027 | ~$9,679,847 | ~$444,767 | ~1.5932% | ~$7,086 | +307.2% |
| 2028 | ~$19,532,954 | ~$489,244 | ~1.5004% | ~$7,341 | +721.7% |
| 2029 | ~$39,415,532 | ~$538,168 | ~1.4077% | ~$7,576 | +1558.1% |
| 2030 | ~$79,536,570 | ~$591,985 | ~1.3150% | ~$7,784 | +3245.8% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $2,377,221 places it in the top 25% for Agricultural properties in Travis County (7602 comparable) — 4× the county median of $597,708. Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $2,377,221 | $207,536 | $597,708 | $1,442,275 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2024 | $465,358 | $217,016 | $597,296 | $1,446,593 | ↓ Below median | +23.7% |
| 2023 | $481,126 | $167,963 | $453,916 | $1,078,522 | ↑ Above median | +0.0% |
| 2022 | $298,091 | $180,794 | $446,888 | $1,009,883 | ↓ Below median | +46.1% |
| 2021 | $270,136 | $33,611 | $103,166 | $247,000 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.