BLUE GOOSE RD TX 78754
| Owner | WASTE MANAGEMENT OF TEXAS INC |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0237360101 |
| Short ID | 850721 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | C1 Vacant Lot |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 2,078,809 SF |
| Acres | 47.723 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | LOT 1 WM SAND & GRAVEL SUBD |
| Neighborhood | 3DUMP |
| Land | $1,039,405 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $1,039,405 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $1,039,405 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $1,039,405 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) | — |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $1,039,405 |
| Taxable Value | $1,039,405 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +220.3% from $324,516 (2021) to $1,039,405 (2025), a CAGR of 33.8% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2021→2025), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Land/Vacant parcel countywide rose +487.2%, so this parcel has lagged the broader land/vacant market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 6 taxing entities is 2.2293% in 2025 (+0.0866% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $23,171. Manor ISD is the largest single contributor, at 48.5% of the total 2025 levy.
Asset Class: Land / Vacant. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($1,039,405 land vs $0 improvements), about $1/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $1,039,405, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Land/Vacant property in Travis County — county median $85,028 (P25 $24,862 / P75 $363,420, n=35,611). Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +33.8% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $4,453,697 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $81,599. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Market value changed by 220% in 2023, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMA Manor ISD | 1.3520% | 1.3520% | 1.0861% | 1.0814% | 1.0814% | +0.0000% | $11,240.13 | $11,240.13 | Paid |
| CAT City of Austin | 0.5410% | 0.4627% | 0.4458% | 0.4776% | 0.5240% | +0.0464% | $5,446.66 | $5,446.66 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $3,906.55 | $3,906.55 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $1,226.74 | $1,226.74 | Paid |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1048% | 0.0987% | 0.0986% | 0.1013% | 0.1034% | +0.0021% | $1,074.74 | $1,074.74 | Paid |
| E04 Travis County ESD # 04 | 0.0800% | 0.0600% | 0.0400% | 0.0300% | 0.0266% | -0.0034% | $276.48 | $276.48 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 2.5470% | 2.3903% | 2.0758% | 2.1427% | 2.2293% | +0.0866% | $23,171.30 | $23,171.30 | Paid |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $1,039,405 | $1,039,405 | +0.0% |
| Assessed Value | $1,039,405 | $1,039,405 | +0.0% |
| Land Value | $1,039,405 | $1,039,405 | +0.0% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $1,039,405 | $1,039,405 | +0.0% |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$23,171
Estimated
|
~$23,171
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $1,039,405 | $1,039,405 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Taxable Value | $1,039,405 | $1,039,405 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1,039,405 | $1,039,405 | — | — | $1,039,405 | $1,039,405 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $1,039,405 | $1,039,405 | — | — | $1,039,405 | $1,039,405 | ~$23,171 | Partial |
| 2024 | $— | — | — | — | $1,039,405 | $— | $22,271 | Verified |
| 2023 | $— | — | — | — | $1,039,405 | $— | $21,576 | Verified |
| 2022 | $— | — | — | — | $324,516 | $— | $7,757 | Verified |
| 2021 | $324,516 | — | — | — | $324,516 | $— | $8,265 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | 2.1400% | Verified |
| 2023 | +220.3% ! | +220.3% | ~100% | 2.0800% | Verified |
| 2022 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | 2.3900% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | 2.5500% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +220.3% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | +0.0% | +110.2% | +33.8% | +220.3% | 2025 | +0.0% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | 100.0% | 2021 | 100.0% | 2021 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 2.2300% | 2.2300% | — | 2.2300% | 2025 | 2.2300% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$23,171 | $15,718 | ~$52,639 | $23,171 | 2025 | $8,265 | 2021 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$1,390,503 | ~$1,390,503 | ~2.1499% | ~$29,894 | +33.8% |
| 2027 | ~$1,860,198 | ~$1,860,198 | ~2.0704% | ~$38,514 | +79.0% |
| 2028 | ~$2,488,550 | ~$2,488,550 | ~1.9910% | ~$49,547 | +139.4% |
| 2029 | ~$3,329,151 | ~$3,329,151 | ~1.9116% | ~$63,640 | +220.3% |
| 2030 | ~$4,453,697 | ~$4,453,697 | ~1.8322% | ~$81,599 | +328.5% |
| 2026 | ~$1,369,715 | ~$1,369,715 | ~2.2293% | ~$30,535 | +31.8% |
| 2027 | ~$1,804,994 | ~$1,804,994 | ~2.2293% | ~$40,238 | +73.7% |
| 2028 | ~$2,378,598 | ~$2,378,598 | ~2.2293% | ~$53,026 | +128.8% |
| 2029 | ~$3,134,487 | ~$3,134,487 | ~2.2293% | ~$69,877 | +201.6% |
| 2030 | ~$4,130,588 | ~$4,130,588 | ~2.2293% | ~$92,083 | +297.4% |
| 2026 | ~$1,411,291 | ~$1,411,291 | ~2.1101% | ~$29,780 | +35.8% |
| 2027 | ~$1,916,234 | ~$1,916,234 | ~1.9910% | ~$38,152 | +84.4% |
| 2028 | ~$2,601,838 | ~$2,601,838 | ~1.8719% | ~$48,703 | +150.3% |
| 2029 | ~$3,532,744 | ~$3,532,744 | ~1.7527% | ~$61,920 | +239.9% |
| 2030 | ~$4,796,716 | ~$4,796,716 | ~1.6336% | ~$78,360 | +361.5% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $1,039,405 places it in the top 25% for Land/Vacant properties in Travis County (35611 comparable) — 12× the county median of $85,028. Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $1,039,405 | $24,862 | $85,028 | $363,420 | ↑ Top 25% | +2.1% |
| 2024 | — | $23,000 | $66,000 | $330,000 | — | +0.0% |
| 2023 | — | $25,000 | $71,500 | $271,439 | — | +0.0% |
| 2022 | — | $15,000 | $55,000 | $180,463 | — | +100.0% |
| 2021 | $324,516 | $6,000 | $14,480 | $80,000 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.