GREGG LN TX 78653
| Owner | 3211 E HOWARD LANE LLC |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0251410301 |
| Short ID | 258971 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | C1 Vacant Lot |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 152,983 SF |
| Acres | 3.512 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | ABS 160 SUR 50 CASTRO M ACR 3.5504 |
| Neighborhood | 1NE1 |
| Land | $1,988,775 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $1,988,775 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $1,988,775 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $1,988,775 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$1,548,185 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $440,590 |
| Taxable Value | $440,590 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +542.5% from $309,537 (2021) to $1,988,775 (2025), a CAGR of 59.2% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2021→2025), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Land/Vacant parcel countywide rose +487.2%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader land/vacant market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 5 taxing entities is 2.2027% in 2025 (+0.0900% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $9,705. Manor ISD is the largest single contributor, at 49.1% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($440,590) is $1,548,185 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Land / Vacant. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($1,988,775 land vs $0 improvements), about $13/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $1,988,775, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Land/Vacant property in Travis County — county median $85,028 (P25 $24,862 / P75 $363,420, n=35,611). Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +59.2% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $20,343,562 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $380,896. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Market value changed by 550% in 2024, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMA Manor ISD | 1.3520% | 1.3520% | 1.0861% | 1.0814% | 1.0814% | +0.0000% | $4,764.54 | $4,764.54 | Paid |
| CAT City of Austin | 0.5410% | 0.4627% | 0.4458% | 0.4776% | 0.5240% | +0.0464% | $2,308.77 | $2,308.77 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $1,655.94 | $1,655.94 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $520.00 | $520.00 | Paid |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1048% | 0.0987% | 0.0986% | 0.1013% | 0.1034% | +0.0021% | $455.57 | $455.57 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 2.4670% | 2.3303% | 2.0358% | 2.1127% | 2.2027% | +0.0900% | $9,704.82 | $9,704.82 | Paid |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $1,988,775 | $1,988,775 | +0.0% |
| Assessed Value | $528,708 | $440,590 | +20.0% |
| Land Value | $1,988,775 | $1,988,775 | +0.0% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $528,708 | $440,590 | +20.0% |
| HS Cap Loss | -$1,460,067 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$11,646
Estimated
|
~$9,705
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $1,988,775 | $1,988,775 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Taxable Value | $528,708 | $528,708 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1,988,775 | $1,988,775 | — | −$1,460,067 | $528,708 | $528,708 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $1,988,775 | $1,988,775 | — | −$1,548,185 | $440,590 | $440,590 | ~$9,705 | Partial |
| 2024 | $— | — | — | — | $1,988,775 | $— | $7,757 | Verified |
| 2023 | $— | — | — | — | $305,965 | $— | $6,229 | Verified |
| 2022 | $— | — | — | — | $309,311 | $— | $7,208 | Verified |
| 2021 | $309,537 | — | — | −$226 | $309,311 | $— | $7,631 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +0.0% | +20.0% | 26.6% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +0.0% | +20.0% | 22.2% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +550.0% ! | +20.0% | 18.5% | 0.3900% | Verified |
| 2023 | -1.1% | -1.1% | ~100% | 2.0400% | Verified |
| 2022 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | 2.3300% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | 2.4700% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +543.0% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | +0.0% | +271.2% | +59.2% | +542.5% | 2025 | +0.0% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 26.6% | 49.6% | — | 99.9% | 2021 | 22.2% | 2025 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.4900% | 0.4900% | — | 0.4900% | 2025 | 0.4900% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$9,705 | $8,668 | ~$192,297 | $9,705 | 2025 | $7,631 | 2021 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$3,166,314 | ~$3,166,314 | ~2.1366% | ~$67,652 | +59.2% |
| 2027 | ~$5,041,064 | ~$5,041,064 | ~2.0705% | ~$104,377 | +153.5% |
| 2028 | ~$8,025,839 | ~$8,025,839 | ~2.0045% | ~$160,875 | +303.6% |
| 2029 | ~$12,777,878 | ~$12,777,878 | ~1.9384% | ~$247,685 | +542.5% |
| 2030 | ~$20,343,562 | ~$20,343,562 | ~1.8723% | ~$380,896 | +922.9% |
| 2026 | ~$3,126,538 | ~$3,126,538 | ~2.2027% | ~$68,868 | +57.2% |
| 2027 | ~$4,915,207 | ~$4,915,207 | ~2.2027% | ~$108,267 | +147.1% |
| 2028 | ~$7,727,159 | ~$7,727,159 | ~2.2027% | ~$170,205 | +288.5% |
| 2029 | ~$12,147,808 | ~$12,147,808 | ~2.2027% | ~$267,578 | +510.8% |
| 2030 | ~$19,097,477 | ~$19,097,477 | ~2.2027% | ~$420,657 | +860.3% |
| 2026 | ~$3,206,089 | ~$3,206,089 | ~2.1036% | ~$67,442 | +61.2% |
| 2027 | ~$5,168,512 | ~$5,168,512 | ~2.0045% | ~$103,601 | +159.9% |
| 2028 | ~$8,332,119 | ~$8,332,119 | ~1.9054% | ~$158,756 | +319.0% |
| 2029 | ~$13,432,145 | ~$13,432,145 | ~1.8062% | ~$242,617 | +575.4% |
| 2030 | ~$21,653,859 | ~$21,653,859 | ~1.7071% | ~$369,660 | +988.8% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $1,988,775 places it in the top 25% for Land/Vacant properties in Travis County (35611 comparable) — 23× the county median of $85,028. Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $1,988,775 | $24,862 | $85,028 | $363,420 | ↑ Top 25% | +2.1% |
| 2024 | — | $23,000 | $66,000 | $330,000 | — | +0.0% |
| 2023 | — | $25,000 | $71,500 | $271,439 | — | +0.0% |
| 2022 | — | $15,000 | $55,000 | $180,463 | — | +100.0% |
| 2021 | $309,537 | $6,000 | $14,480 | $80,000 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.