12449 JOHNSON RD 78653
| Owner | LOPEZ VALENTIN D |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0251700605 |
| Short ID | 502290 |
| Type | Mobile Home |
| Use Code | 12 Mobile Home — Double (PP) |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | 1,440 SF |
| Land SF | 441,829 SF |
| Acres | 10.143 |
| Year Built | 2017 |
| Legal | ABS 315 SUR 63 GATES G ACR 10.143 |
| Neighborhood | _RGN312 |
| Land | $404,454 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $404,454 |
| Improvement | $1,170 |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | $1,170 |
| Market | $527,146 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $527,146 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$245,594 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $281,552 |
| Exemptions (−) (HS) | −$56,310 |
|---|---|
| Taxable Value | $225,242 |
Appreciation: Market value has risen +396.7% from $106,121 (2021) to $527,146 (2025), a CAGR of 49.3% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Growth has been fairly evenly spread across these years rather than concentrated in one jump. Over the same span, the median Residential parcel countywide rose +45.8%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader residential market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 5 taxing entities is 1.7787% in 2025 (+0.0436% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $4,006. Manor ISD is the largest single contributor, at 47.7% of the total 2025 levy.
Homestead Cap History: This property had an active homestead cap as recently as 2024 ($125,485, ~23.8% of market value at the time). The cap has since reset or expired. Verified clear — 2025 Certified Historical data from AJR 2021–2024 (Partial confidence). Current status confirmed by 2025 TCAD Certified Export.
Asset Class: Single-family residential. Buyer should verify which exemptions carry and which reset at sale. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 77% of market value ($404,454 land vs $1,170 improvements), about $1/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $527,146, this parcel sits in the upper-middle (50th–75th percentile) of Residential property in Travis County — county median $479,535 (P25 $358,633 / P75 $737,055, n=318,609). Residential here is the broad TCAD category — every residential property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +49.3% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $3,909,245 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $6,663. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
1 components · show ▾hide ▴
| Code | Description | SF | In Gross |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1ST | 1st Floor | 1,440 SF | ✓ |
| Unit (prop_id) | Owner | Address | Market Value | Assessed Value | Taxable Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 502290 | LOPEZ VALENTIN & | 12449 JOHNSON RD 78653 | $489,323 | $310,196 | $274,989 |
| 963733 | LOPEZ VALENTIN | 12449 JOHNSON RD 78653 | — | — | — |
This parcel had an active homestead exemption on the 2025 certified roll, but the county's 2026 preliminary file no longer shows one. This sometimes reflects file incompleteness in the preliminary export rather than a real change — it will be confirmed once TCAD's 2026 roll certifies. Worth a direct check with the owner or TCAD before treating this as a confirmed exemption loss.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMA Manor ISD | 1.3520% | 1.3520% | 1.0861% | 1.0814% | 1.0814% | +0.0000% | $1,530.74 | $1,530.74 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $846.56 | $846.56 | Paid |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1048% | 0.0987% | 0.0986% | 0.1013% | 0.1034% | +0.0021% | $285.95 | $285.95 | Paid |
| E12 Travis County ESD # 12 | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.0982% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | +0.0000% | $281.55 | $281.55 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $265.84 | $265.84 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 2.0260% | 1.9676% | 1.6882% | 1.7351% | 1.7787% | +0.0436% | $3,210.64 | $3,210.64 | Paid |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $489,323 | $527,146 | -7.2% |
| Assessed Value | $310,196 | $281,552 | +10.2% |
| Land Value | $353,990 | $404,454 | -12.5% |
| Improvement Value | $135,333 | $1,170 | +11466.9% |
| Taxable Value | $274,989 | $225,242 | +22.1% |
| Exemptions | HS | HS | |
| HS Cap Loss | -$179,127 | -$125,485 (2024) | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$4,891
Estimated
|
~$3,211
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $489,323 | $489,323 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Taxable Value | $274,989 | $274,989 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $489,323 | $353,990 | $135,333 | −$179,127 | $310,196 | $274,989 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $527,146 | $404,454 | $1,170 | −$245,594 | $281,552 | $225,242 | ~$3,211 | Partial |
| 2024 | $296,573 | — | — | — | $404,454 ! | $— | $1,262 | Verified |
| 2023 | $298,834 | — | — | −$106,297 | $192,537 | $— | $1,058 | Verified |
| 2022 | $214,679 | — | — | −$22,142 | $192,537 | $— | $1,754 | Verified |
| 2021 | $106,121 | — | — | — | $106,121 | $— | $1,952 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | — | — | — | Not available | — |
| 2025 | -2.2% | +7.4% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +20.9% | +10.0% | 91.0% | 0.2400% | Verified |
| 2023 | -2.2% | -2.2% | ~100% | 0.3600% | Verified |
| 2022 | -2.0% | -2.0% | ~100% | 0.5900% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | 1.8400% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +13.3% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -7.2% | +42.2% | +51.6% | +102.3% | 2022 | -7.2% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 63.4% | 84.5% | — | 136.4% | 2024 | 53.4% | 2025 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 1.1400% | 1.1400% | — | 1.1400% | 2025 | 1.1400% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$3,211 | $1,847 | ~$5,980 | $3,211 | 2025 | $1,058 | 2023 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$786,979 | ~$309,707 | ~1.7168% | ~$5,317 | +49.3% |
| 2027 | ~$1,174,886 | ~$340,678 | ~1.6550% | ~$5,638 | +122.9% |
| 2028 | ~$1,753,994 | ~$374,746 | ~1.5932% | ~$5,970 | +232.7% |
| 2029 | ~$2,618,548 | ~$412,220 | ~1.5314% | ~$6,313 | +396.7% |
| 2030 | ~$3,909,245 | ~$453,442 | ~1.4695% | ~$6,663 | +641.6% |
| 2026 | ~$776,436 | ~$309,707 | ~1.7787% | ~$5,509 | +47.3% |
| 2027 | ~$1,143,618 | ~$340,678 | ~1.7787% | ~$6,060 | +116.9% |
| 2028 | ~$1,684,441 | ~$374,746 | ~1.7787% | ~$6,665 | +219.5% |
| 2029 | ~$2,481,023 | ~$412,220 | ~1.7787% | ~$7,332 | +370.7% |
| 2030 | ~$3,654,313 | ~$453,442 | ~1.7787% | ~$8,065 | +593.2% |
| 2026 | ~$797,522 | ~$309,707 | ~1.6859% | ~$5,221 | +51.3% |
| 2027 | ~$1,206,576 | ~$340,678 | ~1.5932% | ~$5,428 | +128.9% |
| 2028 | ~$1,825,436 | ~$374,746 | ~1.5004% | ~$5,623 | +246.3% |
| 2029 | ~$2,761,712 | ~$412,220 | ~1.4077% | ~$5,803 | +423.9% |
| 2030 | ~$4,178,210 | ~$453,442 | ~1.3150% | ~$5,963 | +692.6% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $527,146 places it in the 50th–75th percentile for Residential properties in Travis County (318609 comparable) — +10% above the county median of $479,535. Residential here is the broad TCAD category — every residential property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $527,146 | $358,633 | $479,535 | $737,055 | ↑ Above median | -6.4% |
| 2024 | $296,573 | $384,868 | $512,735 | $786,167 | ↓ Bottom 25% | -8.7% |
| 2023 | $298,834 | $424,496 | $565,716 | $845,447 | ↓ Bottom 25% | -2.1% |
| 2022 | $214,679 | $435,080 | $581,770 | $864,060 | ↓ Bottom 25% | +53.2% |
| 2021 | $106,121 | $239,232 | $328,865 | $488,922 | ↓ Bottom 25% | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.