16116 MANDA CARLSON RD MANOR, TX
| Owner | HYATT RUTH OLSON |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0259800307 |
| Short ID | 264013 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | 00 (unlisted) |
| Valuation | Productivity |
| Improvement SF | 1,686 SF |
| Land SF | 4,573,800 SF |
| Acres | 105.000 |
| Year Built | 1960 |
| Legal | ABS 737 SUR 24 SMITH T ACR 104.0 (1-D-1) |
| Neighborhood | _RGN320 |
| Land | $3,669,432 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $3,669,432 |
| Improvement | $176,422 |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | $176,422 |
| Market | $3,845,854 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $3,845,854 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$3,621,703 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $224,151 |
| Exemptions (−) (HS,OV65) | −$172,568 |
|---|---|
| Taxable Value | $51,583 |
Appreciation: Market value has risen +3489.2% from $107,151 (2021) to $3,845,854 (2025), a CAGR of 144.8% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2024→2025), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Agricultural parcel countywide rose +479.4%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader agricultural market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 4 taxing entities is 0.6900% in 2025 (+0.0424% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $356. Travis County ESD # 02 is the largest single contributor, at 34.0% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($224,151) is $3,621,703 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Agricultural. Agricultural valuation may be subject to rollback taxes if land use changes.
Value Composition: Land carries 95% of market value ($3,669,432 land vs $176,422 improvements), about $1/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land under a ~66-year-old structure, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $3,845,854, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Agricultural property in Travis County — county median $597,708 (P25 $207,536 / P75 $1,442,275, n=7,602). Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +212.7% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2022–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $1,148,993,164 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $2,609. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
1 components · show ▾hide ▴
| Code | Description | SF | In Gross |
|---|---|---|---|
| 301 | BARN SF | 5,300 SF | ✓ |
| Unit (prop_id) | Owner | Address | Market Value | Assessed Value | Taxable Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 264013 | HYATT RUTH OLSON | 16116 MANDA CARLSON RD MANOR | $141,850 | $141,850 | $0 |
| 264014 | HYATT RUTH OLSON | 0.000 | $3,145,584 | $52,190 | $52,190 |
Market value changed by 244% in 2024, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E02 Travis County ESD # 02 | 0.0900% | 0.0800% | 0.0773% | 0.0939% | 0.0928% | -0.0011% | $207.93 | $207.93 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $193.87 | $193.87 | Paid |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1048% | 0.0987% | 0.0986% | 0.1013% | 0.1034% | +0.0021% | $149.06 | $149.06 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $60.88 | $60.88 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 0.6640% | 0.5956% | 0.5812% | 0.6476% | 0.6900% | +0.0424% | $611.74 | $611.74 | Paid |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $3,287,434 | $3,845,854 | -14.5% |
| Assessed Value | $194,040 | $224,151 | -13.4% |
| Land Value | $3,150,000 | $3,669,432 | -14.2% |
| Improvement Value | $137,434 | $176,422 | -22.1% |
| Taxable Value | $52,190 | $51,583 | +1.2% |
| Exemptions | HS,OV65 | HS,OV65 | |
| HS Cap Loss | -$3,093,394 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$360
Estimated
|
~$612
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $3,287,434 | $3,287,434 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Taxable Value | $52,190 | $52,190 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $3,287,434 | $3,150,000 | $137,434 | −$3,093,394 | $194,040 | $52,190 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $3,845,854 | $3,669,432 | $176,422 | −$3,621,703 | $224,151 | $51,583 | ~$612 | Partial |
| 2024 | $225,529 | — | — | −$75,716 | $149,813 | $— | $547 | Verified |
| 2023 | $214,984 | — | — | −$140,071 | $74,913 | $— | $474 | Verified |
| 2022 | $125,834 | — | — | −$50,921 | $74,913 | $— | $534 | Verified |
| 2021 | $107,151 | — | — | −$100,420 | $6,731 | $— | $458 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -14.1% | +1.2% | 1.7% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | -0.1% | +3.9% | 1.4% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +244.0% ! | -4.4% | 1.4% | 0.0100% | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | -1.2% | 4.9% | 0.0400% | Verified |
| 2022 | +46.9% | -0.9% | 4.9% | 0.0400% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | 7.3% | 0.4300% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +404.4% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -14.5% | +336.8% | +223.3% | +1605.3% | 2025 | -14.5% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 5.9% | 29.8% | — | 66.4% | 2024 | 5.8% | 2025 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.0100% | 0.0100% | — | 0.0100% | 2025 | 0.0100% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$612 | $525 | ~$2,140 | $612 | 2025 | $458 | 2021 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$12,024,242 | ~$246,566 | ~0.6965% | ~$1,717 | +212.7% |
| 2027 | ~$37,594,356 | ~$271,223 | ~0.7031% | ~$1,907 | +877.5% |
| 2028 | ~$117,540,514 | ~$298,345 | ~0.7096% | ~$2,117 | +2956.3% |
| 2029 | ~$367,495,914 | ~$328,179 | ~0.7161% | ~$2,350 | +9455.6% |
| 2030 | ~$1,148,993,164 | ~$360,997 | ~0.7226% | ~$2,609 | +29776.2% |
| 2026 | ~$11,947,325 | ~$246,566 | ~0.6900% | ~$1,701 | +210.7% |
| 2027 | ~$37,114,925 | ~$271,223 | ~0.6900% | ~$1,872 | +865.1% |
| 2028 | ~$115,299,251 | ~$298,345 | ~0.6900% | ~$2,059 | +2898.0% |
| 2029 | ~$358,182,515 | ~$328,179 | ~0.6900% | ~$2,265 | +9213.5% |
| 2030 | ~$1,112,710,736 | ~$360,997 | ~0.6900% | ~$2,491 | +28832.7% |
| 2026 | ~$12,101,159 | ~$246,566 | ~0.6998% | ~$1,725 | +214.7% |
| 2027 | ~$38,076,864 | ~$271,223 | ~0.7096% | ~$1,925 | +890.1% |
| 2028 | ~$119,810,635 | ~$298,345 | ~0.7193% | ~$2,146 | +3015.3% |
| 2029 | ~$376,989,767 | ~$328,179 | ~0.7291% | ~$2,393 | +9702.5% |
| 2030 | ~$1,186,215,934 | ~$360,997 | ~0.7389% | ~$2,667 | +30744.0% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $3,845,854 places it in the top 25% for Agricultural properties in Travis County (7602 comparable) — 6× the county median of $597,708. Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $3,845,854 | $207,536 | $597,708 | $1,442,275 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2024 | $225,529 | $217,016 | $597,296 | $1,446,593 | ↓ Below median | +23.7% |
| 2023 | $214,984 | $167,963 | $453,916 | $1,078,522 | ↓ Below median | +0.0% |
| 2022 | $125,834 | $180,794 | $446,888 | $1,009,883 | ↓ Bottom 25% | +46.1% |
| 2021 | $107,151 | $33,611 | $103,166 | $247,000 | ↑ Above median | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.