16601 MANDA CARLSON RD 78653
| Owner | LARA FLORENCIO M & MARISELA G PADRON |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0259900234 |
| Short ID | 548470 |
| Type | Mobile Home |
| Use Code | 12 Mobile Home — Double (PP) |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | 1,536 SF |
| Land SF | 258,746 SF |
| Acres | 5.940 |
| Year Built | 2018 |
| Legal | ABS 462 SUR 27 KEMPE J P ACR 5.9400 (TRT 15) |
| Neighborhood | _RGN320 |
| Land | $425,750 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $425,750 |
| Improvement | $162,417 |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | $162,417 |
| Market | $720,770 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $720,770 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$294,977 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $425,793 |
| Exemptions (−) (HS) | −$13,078 |
|---|---|
| Taxable Value | $412,715 |
| Total Due | $2,483.97 |
|---|---|
| First Delinquent | 2016 |
| Cause # | GN17005302 |
Appreciation: Market value has risen +787.6% from $81,200 (2021) to $720,770 (2025), a CAGR of 72.6% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2021→2024), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Land/Vacant parcel countywide rose +487.2%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader land/vacant market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 4 taxing entities is 0.6973% in 2025 (+0.0436% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $2,878. Travis County is the largest single contributor, at 53.5% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($425,793) is $294,977 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Land / Vacant. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 59% of market value ($425,750 land vs $162,417 improvements), about $2/SF of land. Land and improvements both carry meaningful weight; value is balanced between the structure and its site.
Submarket Position: At $720,770, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Land/Vacant property in Travis County — county median $85,028 (P25 $24,862 / P75 $363,420, n=35,611). Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +72.6% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $11,043,266 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $4,981. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
Delinquent Taxes: $2,483.97 in unpaid taxes since 2016. These become a lien on the property and transfer to the buyer at closing unless negotiated otherwise.
1 components · show ▾hide ▴
| Code | Description | SF | In Gross |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1ST | 1st Floor | 1,536 SF | ✓ |
| Unit (prop_id) | Owner | Address | Market Value | Assessed Value | Taxable Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 548470 | LARA FLORENCIO M & MARISELA G PADRON | 16601 MANDA CARLSON RD 78653 | $528,281 | $254,549 | $240,164 |
| 975183 | LARA FLORENCIO M & MARISELA G PADRON | 16523 MANDA CARLSON RD MANOR 78653 | $71,393 | $71,393 | $71,393 |
This parcel has unpaid taxes on record. Delinquent taxes are a lien on the property and transfer to the buyer at closing unless negotiated otherwise.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $1,551.17 | $1,551.17 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $487.10 | $487.10 | Paid |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1048% | 0.0987% | 0.0986% | 0.1013% | 0.1034% | +0.0021% | $437.68 | $437.68 | Paid |
| E13 Travis County ESD # 13 | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | +0.0000% | $425.79 | $425.79 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 0.6740% | 0.6156% | 0.6039% | 0.6537% | 0.6973% | +0.0436% | $2,901.74 | $2,901.74 | Paid |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $599,674 | $720,770 | -16.8% |
| Assessed Value | $325,942 | $425,793 | -23.5% |
| Land Value | $417,582 | $425,750 | -1.9% |
| Improvement Value | $110,699 | $162,417 | -31.8% |
| Taxable Value | $311,557 | $412,715 | -24.5% |
| Exemptions | HS | HS | |
| HS Cap Loss | -$273,732 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$2,172
Estimated
|
~$2,902
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $599,674 | $599,674 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Taxable Value | $311,557 | $311,557 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $599,674 | $417,582 | $110,699 | −$273,732 | $325,942 | $311,557 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $720,770 | $425,750 | $162,417 | −$294,977 | $425,793 | $412,715 | ~$2,902 | Partial |
| 2024 | $504,533 | — | — | −$78,783 | $425,750 | $— | $1,908 | Verified |
| 2023 | $— | — | — | — | $223,493 | $— | $1,644 | Verified |
| 2022 | $— | — | — | — | $194,842 | $— | $561 | Verified |
| 2021 | $81,200 | — | — | — | $194,842 ! | $— | $663 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -46.2% | -46.2% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | -2.2% | +1.1% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +24.1% | +20.0% | 96.7% | 0.2600% | Verified |
| 2023 | -51.1% | -51.1% | ~100% | 0.3300% | Verified |
| 2022 | +14.7% | +14.7% | ~100% | 0.2500% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | 0.8200% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): -31.9% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -16.8% | +182.5% | +79.6% | +521.3% | 2024 | -16.8% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 54.4% | 109.5% | — | 240.0% | 2021 | 54.4% | 2026 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.7000% | 0.7000% | — | 0.7000% | 2025 | 0.7000% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$2,902 | $1,824 | ~$4,094 | $2,902 | 2025 | $663 | 2021 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$1,244,105 | ~$468,372 | ~0.7031% | ~$3,293 | +72.6% |
| 2027 | ~$2,147,420 | ~$515,210 | ~0.7089% | ~$3,652 | +197.9% |
| 2028 | ~$3,706,613 | ~$566,730 | ~0.7147% | ~$4,051 | +414.3% |
| 2029 | ~$6,397,899 | ~$623,404 | ~0.7206% | ~$4,492 | +787.6% |
| 2030 | ~$11,043,266 | ~$685,744 | ~0.7264% | ~$4,981 | +1432.1% |
| 2026 | ~$1,229,689 | ~$468,372 | ~0.6973% | ~$3,266 | +70.6% |
| 2027 | ~$2,097,944 | ~$515,210 | ~0.6973% | ~$3,592 | +191.1% |
| 2028 | ~$3,579,255 | ~$566,730 | ~0.6973% | ~$3,952 | +396.6% |
| 2029 | ~$6,106,484 | ~$623,404 | ~0.6973% | ~$4,347 | +747.2% |
| 2030 | ~$10,418,132 | ~$685,744 | ~0.6973% | ~$4,781 | +1345.4% |
| 2026 | ~$1,258,520 | ~$468,372 | ~0.7060% | ~$3,307 | +74.6% |
| 2027 | ~$2,197,473 | ~$515,210 | ~0.7147% | ~$3,682 | +204.9% |
| 2028 | ~$3,836,957 | ~$566,730 | ~0.7235% | ~$4,100 | +432.3% |
| 2029 | ~$6,699,622 | ~$623,404 | ~0.7322% | ~$4,565 | +829.5% |
| 2030 | ~$11,698,055 | ~$685,744 | ~0.7409% | ~$5,081 | +1523.0% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $720,770 places it in the top 25% for Land/Vacant properties in Travis County (35611 comparable) — 8× the county median of $85,028. Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $720,770 | $24,862 | $85,028 | $363,420 | ↑ Top 25% | +2.1% |
| 2024 | $504,533 | $23,000 | $66,000 | $330,000 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2023 | — | $25,000 | $71,500 | $271,439 | — | +0.0% |
| 2022 | — | $15,000 | $55,000 | $180,463 | — | +100.0% |
| 2021 | $81,200 | $6,000 | $14,480 | $80,000 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.