16523 MANDA CARLSON RD MANOR 78653
| Owner | PADRON EUGENIO & EVERARDO PADRON |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0259900273 |
| Short ID | 963889 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | 13 Mobile Home — Single (Real) |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | 840 SF |
| Land SF | 109,510 SF |
| Acres | 2.514 |
| Year Built | 1990 |
| Legal | ABS 462 SUR 27 KEMPE J P ACR 2.514 (TRT 16) |
| Neighborhood | B1314MH |
| Land | $305,262 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $305,262 |
| Improvement | $13,910 |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | $13,910 |
| Market | $319,172 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $319,172 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$81,958 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $237,214 |
| Taxable Value | $237,214 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +19.0% from $268,206 (2023) to $319,172 (2025), a CAGR of 9.1% over 2 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2024→2025), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Residential parcel countywide fell -15.2%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader residential market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 4 taxing entities is 0.6973% in 2025 (+0.0436% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $1,654. Travis County is the largest single contributor, at 53.9% of the total 2025 levy.
Homestead Cap History: This property had an active homestead cap as recently as 2024 ($12,108, ~3.8% of market value at the time). The cap has since reset or expired. Verified clear — 2025 Certified Historical data from AJR 2021–2024 (Partial confidence). Current status confirmed by 2025 TCAD Certified Export.
Asset Class: Single-family residential. Buyer should verify which exemptions carry and which reset at sale. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 96% of market value ($305,262 land vs $13,910 improvements), about $3/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land under a ~36-year-old structure, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $319,172, this parcel sits in the bottom quartile (<25th percentile) of Residential property in Travis County — county median $479,535 (P25 $358,633 / P75 $737,055, n=318,609). Residential here is the broad TCAD category — every residential property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +9.1% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $493,078 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $2,775. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
2 components · show ▾hide ▴
| Code | Description | SF | In Gross |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1ST | 1st Floor | 840 SF | ✓ |
| 121 | WATER/SEWER INF | 1 SF | ✓ |
Market value changed by 93% in 2024, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $891.56 | $891.56 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $279.97 | $279.97 | Paid |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1048% | 0.0987% | 0.0986% | 0.1013% | 0.1034% | +0.0021% | $245.28 | $245.28 | Paid |
| E13 Travis County ESD # 13 | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | +0.0000% | $237.21 | $237.21 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 0.6740% | 0.6156% | 0.6039% | 0.6537% | 0.6973% | +0.0436% | $1,654.02 | $1,654.02 | Paid |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $303,633 | $319,172 | -4.9% |
| Assessed Value | $284,657 | $237,214 | +20.0% |
| Land Value | $292,713 | $305,262 | -4.1% |
| Improvement Value | $10,920 | $13,910 | -21.5% |
| Taxable Value | $284,657 | $237,214 | +20.0% |
| HS Cap Loss | -$18,976 | -$12,108 (2024) | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$1,985
Estimated
|
~$1,654
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $303,633 | $303,633 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Taxable Value | $284,657 | $284,657 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $303,633 | $292,713 | $10,920 | −$18,976 | $284,657 | $284,657 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $319,172 | $305,262 | $13,910 | −$81,958 | $237,214 | $237,214 | ~$1,654 | Partial |
| 2024 | $164,732 | — | — | — | $305,262 ! | $— | $1,292 | Verified |
| 2023 | $268,206 | — | — | −$113,180 | $155,026 | $— | $995 | Verified |
| 2022 | $— | — | — | — | $155,026 | $— | $1,651 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.9% | +20.0% | 93.8% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +0.6% | +20.0% | 74.3% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +92.7% ! | +20.0% | 62.3% | 0.4100% | Verified |
| 2023 | -38.6% | -38.6% | ~100% | 0.6000% | Verified |
| 2022 | base year | — | ~100% | 0.6200% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +19.0% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -4.9% | +16.8% | +10.2% | +93.8% | 2025 | -38.6% | 2024 |
| Assessment Ratio | 93.8% | 102.8% | — | 185.3% | 2024 | 57.8% | 2023 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.5200% | 0.5200% | — | 0.5200% | 2025 | 0.5200% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$1,654 | $1,314 | ~$2,281 | $1,654 | 2025 | $995 | 2023 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$348,179 | ~$260,935 | ~0.7031% | ~$1,835 | +9.1% |
| 2027 | ~$379,823 | ~$287,029 | ~0.7089% | ~$2,035 | +19.0% |
| 2028 | ~$414,342 | ~$315,732 | ~0.7147% | ~$2,257 | +29.8% |
| 2029 | ~$451,999 | ~$347,305 | ~0.7206% | ~$2,503 | +41.6% |
| 2030 | ~$493,078 | ~$382,036 | ~0.7264% | ~$2,775 | +54.5% |
| 2026 | ~$341,796 | ~$260,935 | ~0.6973% | ~$1,819 | +7.1% |
| 2027 | ~$366,023 | ~$287,029 | ~0.6973% | ~$2,001 | +14.7% |
| 2028 | ~$391,968 | ~$315,732 | ~0.6973% | ~$2,201 | +22.8% |
| 2029 | ~$419,752 | ~$347,305 | ~0.6973% | ~$2,422 | +31.5% |
| 2030 | ~$449,505 | ~$382,036 | ~0.6973% | ~$2,664 | +40.8% |
| 2026 | ~$354,563 | ~$260,935 | ~0.7060% | ~$1,842 | +11.1% |
| 2027 | ~$393,878 | ~$287,029 | ~0.7147% | ~$2,051 | +23.4% |
| 2028 | ~$437,552 | ~$315,732 | ~0.7235% | ~$2,284 | +37.1% |
| 2029 | ~$486,069 | ~$347,305 | ~0.7322% | ~$2,543 | +52.3% |
| 2030 | ~$539,966 | ~$382,036 | ~0.7409% | ~$2,831 | +69.2% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $319,172 places it in the bottom 25% for Residential properties in Travis County (318609 comparable) — -33% below the county median of $479,535. Residential here is the broad TCAD category — every residential property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $319,172 | $358,633 | $479,535 | $737,055 | ↓ Bottom 25% | -6.4% |
| 2024 | $164,732 | $384,868 | $512,735 | $786,167 | ↓ Bottom 25% | -8.7% |
| 2023 | $268,206 | $424,496 | $565,716 | $845,447 | ↓ Bottom 25% | -2.1% |
| 2022 | — | $435,080 | $581,770 | $864,060 | — | +53.2% |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.