MANDA CARLSON RD TX 78653
| Owner | EAST BLACKLAND SOLAR PROJECT 1 LLC |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0267900108 |
| Short ID | 271881 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | D2 Farm/Ranch Improvements on Open-Space Land |
| Valuation | Productivity |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 13,899,517 SF |
| Acres | 319.089 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | ABS 302 SUR 42 FOWLER S VAR SURVEYS ACR 319.0890 |
| Neighborhood | _RGN320 |
| Land | $11,110,344 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $11,110,344 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $11,110,344 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $11,110,344 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) | — |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $11,110,344 |
| Taxable Value | $11,110,344 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +435.7% from $2,074,079 (2021) to $11,110,344 (2025), a CAGR of 52.1% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2024→2025), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Agricultural parcel countywide rose +479.4%, so this parcel has lagged the broader agricultural market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 4 taxing entities is 0.6900% in 2025 (+0.0424% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $76,665. Travis County is the largest single contributor, at 54.5% of the total 2025 levy.
Asset Class: Agricultural. Agricultural valuation may be subject to rollback taxes if land use changes.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($11,110,344 land vs $0 improvements), about $1/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $11,110,344, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Agricultural property in Travis County — county median $597,708 (P25 $207,536 / P75 $1,442,275, n=7,602). Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +73.1% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2022–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $172,484,768 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $1,246,376. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Market value changed by 239% in 2024, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $41,757.67 | $41,757.67 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $13,112.76 | $13,112.76 | Paid |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1048% | 0.0987% | 0.0986% | 0.1013% | 0.1034% | +0.0021% | $11,488.10 | $11,488.10 | Paid |
| E02 Travis County ESD # 02 | 0.0900% | 0.0800% | 0.0773% | 0.0939% | 0.0928% | -0.0011% | $10,306.51 | $10,306.51 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 0.6640% | 0.5956% | 0.5812% | 0.6476% | 0.6900% | +0.0424% | $76,665.04 | $76,665.04 | Paid |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $9,572,670 | $11,110,344 | -13.8% |
| Assessed Value | $9,572,670 | $11,110,344 | -13.8% |
| Land Value | $9,572,670 | $11,110,344 | -13.8% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $9,572,670 | $11,110,344 | -13.8% |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$66,055
Estimated
|
~$76,665
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $9,572,670 | $9,572,670 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Taxable Value | $9,572,670 | $9,572,670 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $9,572,670 | $9,572,670 | — | — | $9,572,670 | $9,572,670 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $11,110,344 | $11,110,344 | — | — | $11,110,344 | $11,110,344 | ~$76,665 | Partial |
| 2024 | $3,272,650 | — | — | — | $11,110,344 ! | $— | $71,952 | Verified |
| 2023 | $3,272,650 | — | — | −$81,760 | $3,190,890 | $— | $19,022 | Verified |
| 2022 | $2,143,451 | — | — | — | $3,190,890 ! | $— | $19,493 | Verified |
| 2021 | $2,074,079 | — | — | — | $2,074,079 | $— | $14,232 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -13.8% | -13.8% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +239.5% ! | +239.5% | ~100% | 0.6500% | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | 0.5800% | Verified |
| 2022 | +52.7% | +52.7% | ~100% | 0.6000% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | 0.6900% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +418.3% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -13.8% | +56.3% | +78.6% | +239.5% | 2025 | -13.8% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 100.0% | 147.7% | — | 339.5% | 2024 | 97.5% | 2023 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.6900% | 0.6900% | — | 0.6900% | 2025 | 0.6900% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$76,665 | $40,273 | ~$547,318 | $76,665 | 2025 | $14,232 | 2021 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$19,227,913 | ~$19,227,913 | ~0.6965% | ~$133,931 | +73.1% |
| 2027 | ~$33,276,436 | ~$33,276,436 | ~0.7031% | ~$233,953 | +199.5% |
| 2028 | ~$57,589,254 | ~$57,589,254 | ~0.7096% | ~$408,638 | +418.3% |
| 2029 | ~$99,665,787 | ~$99,665,787 | ~0.7161% | ~$713,694 | +797.1% |
| 2030 | ~$172,484,768 | ~$172,484,768 | ~0.7226% | ~$1,246,376 | +1452.5% |
| 2026 | ~$19,005,706 | ~$19,005,706 | ~0.6900% | ~$131,146 | +71.1% |
| 2027 | ~$32,511,763 | ~$32,511,763 | ~0.6900% | ~$224,342 | +192.6% |
| 2028 | ~$55,615,652 | ~$55,615,652 | ~0.6900% | ~$383,766 | +400.6% |
| 2029 | ~$95,137,897 | ~$95,137,897 | ~0.6900% | ~$656,483 | +756.3% |
| 2030 | ~$162,745,900 | ~$162,745,900 | ~0.6900% | ~$1,123,000 | +1364.8% |
| 2026 | ~$19,450,120 | ~$19,450,120 | ~0.6998% | ~$136,113 | +75.1% |
| 2027 | ~$34,049,996 | ~$34,049,996 | ~0.7096% | ~$241,610 | +206.5% |
| 2028 | ~$59,609,002 | ~$59,609,002 | ~0.7193% | ~$428,794 | +436.5% |
| 2029 | ~$104,353,408 | ~$104,353,408 | ~0.7291% | ~$760,855 | +839.2% |
| 2030 | ~$182,684,381 | ~$182,684,381 | ~0.7389% | ~$1,349,826 | +1544.3% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $11,110,344 places it in the top 25% for Agricultural properties in Travis County (7602 comparable) — 19× the county median of $597,708. Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $11,110,344 | $207,536 | $597,708 | $1,442,275 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2024 | $3,272,650 | $217,016 | $597,296 | $1,446,593 | ↑ Top 25% | +23.7% |
| 2023 | $3,272,650 | $167,963 | $453,916 | $1,078,522 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2022 | $2,143,451 | $180,794 | $446,888 | $1,009,883 | ↑ Top 25% | +46.1% |
| 2021 | $2,074,079 | $33,611 | $103,166 | $247,000 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.