21154 MELBER LN TX 78653
| Owner | AUSTIN NOME VENTURES LLC |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0283700101 |
| Short ID | 281947 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | 00 (unlisted) |
| Valuation | Productivity |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 7,825,728 SF |
| Acres | 179.654 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | ABS 443 SUR 12 JONES S C ACR 179.654 (28.229 AC IN TRAVIS COUNTY) (1-D-1) |
| Neighborhood | _RGN317 |
| Land | $6,280,662 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $6,280,662 |
| Improvement | $21,487 |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | $21,487 |
| Market | $6,302,149 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $6,302,149 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$5,275,756 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $1,026,393 |
| Taxable Value | $1,026,393 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +132.6% from $2,709,069 (2024) to $6,302,149 (2025), a CAGR of 132.6% over 1 year. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2024→2025), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Agricultural parcel countywide rose +0.1%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader agricultural market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 4 taxing entities is 1.6935% in 2025 (+0.0403% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $17,382. Pflugerville ISD is the largest single contributor, at 65.4% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($1,026,393) is $5,275,756 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Agricultural. Agricultural valuation may be subject to rollback taxes if land use changes.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($6,280,662 land vs $21,487 improvements), about $1/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $6,302,149, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Agricultural property in Travis County — county median $597,708 (P25 $207,536 / P75 $1,442,275, n=7,602). Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +132.6% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2022–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $429,369,971 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $22,753. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
3 components · show ▾hide ▴
| Code | Description | SF | In Gross |
|---|---|---|---|
| SO | Sketch Only | 5,456 SF | ✗ |
| 611 | TERRACE | 3,640 SF | ✗ |
| 289 | SHED FV | 4 SF | ✓ |
Market value changed by 77% in 2022, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IPF Pflugerville ISD | 1.3880% | 1.2646% | 1.1092% | 1.1069% | 1.1069% | +0.0000% | $11,361.14 | $11,361.14 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $3,857.65 | $3,857.65 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $1,211.38 | $1,211.38 | Paid |
| E02 Travis County ESD # 02 | 0.0900% | 0.0800% | 0.0773% | 0.0939% | 0.0928% | -0.0011% | $952.13 | $952.13 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 1.9472% | 1.7615% | 1.5918% | 1.6532% | 1.6935% | +0.0403% | $17,382.30 | $17,382.30 | Paid |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $5,411,107 | $6,302,149 | -14.1% |
| Assessed Value | $27,931 | $1,026,393 | -97.3% |
| Land Value | $5,389,620 | $6,280,662 | -14.2% |
| Improvement Value | $21,487 | $21,487 | +0.0% |
| Taxable Value | $27,931 | $1,026,393 | -97.3% |
| HS Cap Loss | -$5,383,176 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$473
Estimated
|
~$17,382
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $5,411,107 | $5,411,107 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Taxable Value | $27,931 | $27,931 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $5,411,107 | $5,389,620 | $21,487 | −$5,383,176 | $27,931 | $27,931 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $6,302,149 | $6,280,662 | $21,487 | −$5,275,756 | $1,026,393 | $1,026,393 | ~$17,382 | Partial |
| 2024 | $2,709,069 | — | — | −$1,704,163 | $1,004,906 | $— | $16,968 | Verified |
| 2023 | $— | — | — | — | — | $— | $413 | Verified |
| 2022 | $— | — | — | — | — | $— | $459 | Verified |
| 2021 | $— | — | — | — | — | $— | $508 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -14.1% | -99.0% | 1.1% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +0.0% | +514.0% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +132.6% ! | +3857.4% | 16.3% | 0.2700% | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | -0.5% | 1.0% | 0.0200% | Verified |
| 2022 | +77.0% ! | -48.2% | 1.0% | 0.0200% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | 3.3% | No billing data | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +311.7% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -14.1% | +59.2% | +140.3% | +132.6% | 2025 | -14.1% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 0.5% | 18.0% | — | 37.1% | 2024 | 0.5% | 2026 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.2800% | 0.2800% | — | 0.2800% | 2025 | 0.2800% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$17,382 | $17,175 | ~$20,558 | $17,382 | 2025 | $16,968 | 2024 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$14,660,786 | ~$1,129,032 | ~1.6301% | ~$18,405 | +132.6% |
| 2027 | ~$34,105,614 | ~$1,241,936 | ~1.5667% | ~$19,458 | +441.2% |
| 2028 | ~$79,340,415 | ~$1,366,129 | ~1.5033% | ~$20,537 | +1158.9% |
| 2029 | ~$184,570,831 | ~$1,502,742 | ~1.4399% | ~$21,638 | +2828.7% |
| 2030 | ~$429,369,971 | ~$1,653,016 | ~1.3765% | ~$22,753 | +6713.1% |
| 2026 | ~$14,534,743 | ~$1,129,032 | ~1.6935% | ~$19,121 | +130.6% |
| 2027 | ~$33,521,703 | ~$1,241,936 | ~1.6935% | ~$21,033 | +431.9% |
| 2028 | ~$77,311,621 | ~$1,366,129 | ~1.6935% | ~$23,136 | +1126.8% |
| 2029 | ~$178,304,983 | ~$1,502,742 | ~1.6935% | ~$25,449 | +2729.3% |
| 2030 | ~$411,227,533 | ~$1,653,016 | ~1.6935% | ~$27,994 | +6425.2% |
| 2026 | ~$14,786,829 | ~$1,129,032 | ~1.5984% | ~$18,047 | +134.6% |
| 2027 | ~$34,694,566 | ~$1,241,936 | ~1.5033% | ~$18,670 | +450.5% |
| 2028 | ~$81,404,395 | ~$1,366,129 | ~1.4082% | ~$19,238 | +1191.7% |
| 2029 | ~$191,000,388 | ~$1,502,742 | ~1.3131% | ~$19,732 | +2930.7% |
| 2030 | ~$448,147,156 | ~$1,653,016 | ~1.2179% | ~$20,133 | +7011.0% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $6,302,149 places it in the top 25% for Agricultural properties in Travis County (7602 comparable) — 11× the county median of $597,708. Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $6,302,149 | $207,536 | $597,708 | $1,442,275 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2024 | $2,709,069 | $217,016 | $597,296 | $1,446,593 | ↑ Top 25% | +23.7% |
| 2023 | — | $167,963 | $453,916 | $1,078,522 | — | +0.0% |
| 2022 | — | $180,794 | $446,888 | $1,009,883 | — | +46.1% |
| 2021 | — | $33,611 | $103,166 | $247,000 | — | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.