3949 S LAMAR BLVD TX 78704
| Owner | ASC/BEARCREEK PROPERTIES LTD |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0406110103 |
| Short ID | 508994 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | 42 Neighborhood Shopping Center |
| Valuation | Income |
| Improvement SF | 110,328 SF |
| Land SF | 432,869 SF |
| Acres | 9.937 |
| Year Built | 1971 |
| Legal | LOT A WALTERS SUBD |
| Neighborhood | 42CEN |
| Land | $43,286,900 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $43,286,900 |
| Improvement | $1,501,668 |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | $1,501,668 |
| Market | $44,788,568 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $44,788,568 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) | — |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $44,788,568 |
| Taxable Value | $44,788,568 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +70.3% from $26,300,000 (2021) to $44,788,568 (2025), a CAGR of 14.2% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2024→2025), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Commercial parcel countywide rose +24.1%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader commercial market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 5 taxing entities is 2.0465% in 2025 (+0.0647% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $916,591. Austin ISD is the largest single contributor, at 45.2% of the total 2025 levy.
Asset Class: Commercial. No homestead exemptions apply — full market value is taxable. This is valued using the income approach, so changes in rent roll or occupancy move the appraisal more directly than they would for a cost-approach property.
Value Composition: Land carries 97% of market value ($43,286,900 land vs $1,501,668 improvements), about $100/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land under a ~55-year-old structure, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $44,788,568, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Commercial property in Travis County — county median $1,417,484 (P25 $649,268 / P75 $3,347,260, n=13,608). Commercial here is the broad TCAD category — every commercial property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +14.2% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $87,132,758 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $1,358,789. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
6 components · show ▾hide ▴
| Code | Description | SF | In Gross |
|---|---|---|---|
| 551 | PAVED AREA | 321,478 SF | ✗ |
| 1ST | 1st Floor | 110,328 SF | ✓ |
| 611 | TERRACE | 8,090 SF | ✗ |
| 501 | CANOPY | 6,101 SF | ✗ |
| 541 | FENCE COMM LF | 2,240 SF | ✗ |
| 482 | LIGHT POLES | 20 SF | ✓ |
No large value jumps, delinquencies, or data anomalies found for this parcel.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IAU Austin ISD | 1.0617% | 0.9966% | 0.8595% | 0.9505% | 0.9252% | -0.0253% | $337,698.00 | $337,698.00 | Paid |
| CAT City of Austin | 0.5410% | 0.4627% | 0.4458% | 0.4776% | 0.5240% | +0.0464% | $191,266.21 | $191,266.21 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $137,183.43 | $137,183.43 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $43,078.40 | $43,078.40 | Paid |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1048% | 0.0987% | 0.0986% | 0.1013% | 0.1034% | +0.0021% | $37,741.00 | $37,741.00 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 2.1767% | 1.9749% | 1.8092% | 1.9818% | 2.0465% | +0.0647% | $746,967.04 | $746,967.04 | Paid |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $36,500,000 | $44,788,568 | -18.5% |
| Assessed Value | $36,500,000 | $44,788,568 | -18.5% |
| Land Value | $43,286,900 | $43,286,900 | +0.0% |
| Improvement Value | — | $1,501,668 | — |
| Taxable Value | $36,500,000 | $44,788,568 | -18.5% |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$746,967
Estimated
|
~$746,967
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $46,453,591 | $36,500,000 | -9,953,591 (-21.4%) |
| Taxable Value | $46,453,591 | $36,500,000 | -9,953,591 (-21.4%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $36,500,000 | $43,286,900 | — | — | $36,500,000 | $36,500,000 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $44,788,568 | $43,286,900 | $1,501,668 | — | $44,788,568 | $44,788,568 | ~$746,967 | Partial |
| 2024 | $31,000,000 | — | — | — | $43,000,000 ! | $— | $729,947 | Verified |
| 2023 | $26,997,757 | — | — | — | $32,810,175 ! | $— | $562,651 | Verified |
| 2022 | $26,959,000 | — | — | −$986,860 | $25,972,140 | $— | $533,185 | Verified |
| 2021 | $26,300,000 | — | — | −$327,860 | $25,972,140 | $— | $586,811 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +3.7% | +3.7% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +4.2% | +4.2% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +31.1% | +31.1% | ~100% | 1.7000% | Verified |
| 2023 | +12.5% | +12.5% | ~100% | 1.7100% | Verified |
| 2022 | +8.2% | +8.2% | ~100% | 1.8300% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | 2.2300% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +66.1% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -18.5% | +8.7% | +19.4% | +44.5% | 2025 | -18.5% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 100.0% | 109.2% | — | 138.7% | 2024 | 96.3% | 2022 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 1.6700% | 1.6700% | — | 1.6700% | 2025 | 1.6700% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$746,967 | $631,912 | ~$1,168,636 | $746,967 | 2025 | $533,185 | 2022 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$51,164,653 | ~$49,267,425 | ~2.0139% | ~$992,215 | +14.2% |
| 2027 | ~$58,448,436 | ~$54,194,167 | ~1.9814% | ~$1,073,797 | +30.5% |
| 2028 | ~$66,769,135 | ~$59,613,584 | ~1.9488% | ~$1,161,773 | +49.1% |
| 2029 | ~$76,274,366 | ~$65,574,942 | ~1.9163% | ~$1,256,607 | +70.3% |
| 2030 | ~$87,132,758 | ~$72,132,437 | ~1.8837% | ~$1,358,789 | +94.5% |
| 2026 | ~$50,268,882 | ~$49,267,425 | ~2.0465% | ~$1,008,250 | +12.2% |
| 2027 | ~$56,419,765 | ~$54,194,167 | ~2.0465% | ~$1,109,075 | +26.0% |
| 2028 | ~$63,323,268 | ~$59,613,584 | ~2.0465% | ~$1,219,983 | +41.4% |
| 2029 | ~$71,071,481 | ~$65,574,942 | ~2.0465% | ~$1,341,981 | +58.7% |
| 2030 | ~$79,767,763 | ~$72,132,437 | ~2.0465% | ~$1,476,180 | +78.1% |
| 2026 | ~$52,060,425 | ~$49,267,425 | ~1.9977% | ~$984,197 | +16.2% |
| 2027 | ~$60,512,937 | ~$54,194,167 | ~1.9488% | ~$1,056,157 | +35.1% |
| 2028 | ~$70,337,797 | ~$59,613,584 | ~1.9000% | ~$1,132,668 | +57.0% |
| 2029 | ~$81,757,817 | ~$65,574,942 | ~1.8512% | ~$1,213,919 | +82.5% |
| 2030 | ~$95,031,989 | ~$72,132,437 | ~1.8024% | ~$1,300,094 | +112.2% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $44,788,568 places it in the top 25% for Commercial properties in Travis County (13608 comparable) — 32× the county median of $1,417,484. Commercial here is the broad TCAD category — every commercial property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $44,788,568 | $649,268 | $1,417,484 | $3,347,260 | ↑ Top 25% | -0.8% |
| 2024 | $31,000,000 | $661,016 | $1,438,465 | $3,471,171 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2023 | $26,997,757 | $667,828 | $1,414,358 | $3,374,900 | ↑ Top 25% | +9.7% |
| 2022 | $26,959,000 | $553,066 | $1,215,730 | $2,939,150 | ↑ Top 25% | +3.3% |
| 2021 | $26,300,000 | $517,750 | $1,142,600 | $2,780,453 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.