BEL PAESE BEND TX 78641
| Owner | HAY JONATHAN & RACHEL WATSON JONES |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0502550409 |
| Short ID | 932173 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | 01 Single-Family Residence |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | 4,930 SF |
| Land SF | 13,761 SF |
| Acres | 0.316 |
| Year Built | 2021 |
| Legal | LOT 9 BLK I TRAVISSO PHS 4 SEC 1-3 |
| Neighborhood | T4500 |
| Land | $318,643 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $318,643 |
| Improvement | $759,699 |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | $759,699 |
| Market | $1,078,342 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $1,078,342 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$63,729 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $1,014,613 |
| Exemptions on file | HS |
|---|---|
| Taxable Value | $1,014,613 |
Appreciation: Market value has risen +1973.7% from $52,000 (2021) to $1,078,342 (2025), a CAGR of 113.4% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2021→2023), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($1,014,613) is $63,729 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: O. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 30% of market value ($318,643 land vs $759,699 improvements), about $23/SF of land. Most value sits in the improvements, so building condition, age (~5 yrs), and rent roll drive the underwriting.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +113.4% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $47,719,732 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $0. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
9 components · show ▾hide ▴
| Code | Description | SF | In Gross |
|---|---|---|---|
| 095 | HVAC RESIDENTIAL | 4,930 SF | ✗ |
| 1ST | 1st Floor | 3,308 SF | ✓ |
| 2ND | 2nd Floor | 1,622 SF | ✓ |
| 041 | GARAGE ATT 1ST F | 639 SF | ✓ |
| 011 | PORCH OPEN 1ST F | 631 SF | ✗ |
| 252 | BEDROOMS | 5 SF | ✓ |
| 251 | BATHROOM | 4 SF | ✓ |
| 250 | HALF BATHROOM | 1 SF | ✓ |
| 522 | FIREPLACE | 1 SF | ✓ |
Market value changed by 1554% in 2022, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $996,526 | $1,078,342 | -7.6% |
| Assessed Value | $950,178 | $1,014,613 | -6.4% |
| Land Value | $231,740 | $318,643 | -27.3% |
| Improvement Value | $764,786 | $759,699 | +0.7% |
| Taxable Value | — | — | — |
| Exemptions | HS | HS | |
| HS Cap Loss | -$46,348 | — | |
| Total Tax | Pending certification | — | |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $996,526 | $996,526 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Taxable Value | — | — | — |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $996,526 | $231,740 | $764,786 | −$46,348 | $950,178 | $— | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $1,078,342 | $318,643 | $759,699 | −$63,729 | $1,014,613 | $— | not in county billing file ⓘ | Partial |
| 2024 | $1,058,487 | — | — | −$816,487 | $242,000 | $— | not in county billing file ⓘ | Partial |
| 2023 | $859,880 | — | — | −$617,880 | $242,000 | $— | not in county billing file ⓘ | Partial |
| 2022 | $— | — | — | — | $242,000 | $— | $3,687 | Verified |
| 2021 | $52,000 | — | — | −$10,400 | $41,600 | $— | $1,200 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -7.6% | -7.6% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | -6.4% | -1.2% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +8.8% | +9.4% | 94.8% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2023 | +23.1% | +24.8% | 94.3% | No billing data | Verified |
| 2022 | +1553.6% ! | +1437.3% | 93.0% | 0.4300% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | 2.3100% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +1973.7% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -7.6% | +392.8% | +116.9% | +1553.6% | 2023 | -7.6% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 95.3% | 64.1% | — | 95.3% | 2026 | 22.9% | 2024 |
|
Effective Tax Rate (2025)
⚑ Billing data available for 2025 only |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tax Amount | $1,200 | $1,200 | — | $1,200 | 2021 | $1,200 | 2021 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$2,301,149 | ~$1,116,074 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | +113.4% |
| 2027 | ~$4,910,584 | ~$1,227,682 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | +355.4% |
| 2028 | ~$10,479,038 | ~$1,350,450 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | +871.8% |
| 2029 | ~$22,361,951 | ~$1,485,495 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | +1973.7% |
| 2030 | ~$47,719,732 | ~$1,634,044 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | +4325.3% |
| 2026 | ~$2,279,583 | ~$1,116,074 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | +111.4% |
| 2027 | ~$4,818,969 | ~$1,227,682 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | +346.9% |
| 2028 | ~$10,187,155 | ~$1,350,450 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | +844.7% |
| 2029 | ~$21,535,340 | ~$1,485,495 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | +1897.1% |
| 2030 | ~$45,525,062 | ~$1,634,044 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | +4121.8% |
| 2026 | ~$2,322,716 | ~$1,116,074 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | +115.4% |
| 2027 | ~$5,003,061 | ~$1,227,682 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | +364.0% |
| 2028 | ~$10,776,443 | ~$1,350,450 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | +899.4% |
| 2029 | ~$23,212,134 | ~$1,485,495 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | +2052.6% |
| 2030 | ~$49,998,238 | ~$1,634,044 | ~0.0000% | ~$0 | +4536.6% |