10128 COW CREEK RD TX 78654
| Owner | HENRY M A |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0509060104 |
| Short ID | 353617 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | 01 Single-Family Residence |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | 1,792 SF |
| Land SF | 2,178,000 SF |
| Acres | 50.000 |
| Year Built | 1989 |
| Legal | IMPROVEMENTS ONLY ABS 596 SUR 6 PAYNE J C ACR 1.00 |
| Neighborhood | _RGN150 |
| Land | $1,749,490 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $1,749,490 |
| Improvement | $225,221 |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | $225,221 |
| Market | $2,186,675 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $2,186,675 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$1,709,476 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $477,199 |
| Exemptions (−) (HS,OV65) | −$185,613 |
|---|---|
| Taxable Value | $291,586 |
Appreciation: Market value has risen +2570.3% from $81,888 (2021) to $2,186,675 (2025), a CAGR of 127.3% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2024→2025), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Agricultural parcel countywide rose +479.4%, so this parcel has outpaced the broader agricultural market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 4 taxing entities is 0.6938% in 2025 (+0.0504% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $2,023. Travis County is the largest single contributor, at 46.4% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($477,199) is $1,709,476 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Agricultural. Agricultural valuation may be subject to rollback taxes if land use changes. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 80% of market value ($1,749,490 land vs $225,221 improvements), about $1/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land under a ~37-year-old structure, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $2,186,675, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Agricultural property in Travis County — county median $597,708 (P25 $207,536 / P75 $1,442,275, n=7,602). Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +178.2% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2022–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $364,582,523 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $5,569. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
3 components · show ▾hide ▴
| Code | Description | SF | In Gross |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1ST | 1st Floor | 1,792 SF | ✓ |
| 011 | PORCH OPEN 1ST F | 640 SF | ✗ |
| 251 | BATHROOM | 2 SF | ✓ |
| Unit (prop_id) | Owner | Address | Market Value | Assessed Value | Taxable Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 353617 | HENRY MICHAEL ALAN ETAL | 0.000 | $979,667 | $249,844 | $249,844 |
| 374252 | HENRY M A | 10128 COW CREEK RD 78654 | $211,964 | $211,964 | $24,302 |
Market value changed by 89% in 2022, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $1,095.91 | $1,095.91 | Paid |
| E01 Travis County ESD # 01 | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | +0.0000% | $477.20 | $477.20 | Paid |
| E07 Travis County ESD # 07 | 0.1000% | 0.0784% | 0.0842% | 0.0910% | 0.1000% | +0.0090% | $477.04 | $477.04 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $313.04 | $313.04 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 0.6692% | 0.5953% | 0.5895% | 0.6434% | 0.6938% | +0.0504% | $2,363.19 | $2,363.19 | Paid |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $1,191,631 | $2,186,675 | -45.5% |
| Assessed Value | $461,808 | $477,199 | -3.2% |
| Land Value | $750,000 | $1,749,490 | -57.1% |
| Improvement Value | $229,667 | $225,221 | +2.0% |
| Taxable Value | $274,146 | $291,586 | -6.0% |
| Exemptions | HS,OV65 | HS,OV65 | |
| HS Cap Loss | -$729,823 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$1,902
Estimated
|
~$2,363
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $1,191,631 | $1,191,631 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Taxable Value | $276,195 | $274,146 | -2,049 (-0.7%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1,191,631 | $750,000 | $229,667 | −$729,823 | $461,808 | $274,146 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $2,186,675 | $1,749,490 | $225,221 | −$1,709,476 | $477,199 | $291,586 | ~$2,363 | Partial |
| 2024 | $120,270 | — | — | — | — | $— | $2,037 | Verified |
| 2023 | $111,679 | — | — | — | — | $— | $1,560 | Verified |
| 2022 | $101,526 | — | — | — | — | $— | $1,491 | Verified |
| 2021 | $81,888 | — | — | — | — | $— | $1,475 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +3.1% | +46.9% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +70.9% | +20.0% | 70.2% | 0.0900% | Verified |
| 2023 | +7.7% | +7.7% | ~100% | 0.0900% | Verified |
| 2022 | -89.2% ! | -6.1% | ~100% | 0.0800% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | 11.5% | 1.8000% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): -79.6% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -45.5% | +342.9% | +224.7% | +1718.1% | 2025 | -45.5% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 38.8% | 30.3% | — | 38.8% | 2026 | 21.8% | 2025 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 0.3900% | 0.3900% | — | 0.3900% | 2025 | 0.3900% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$2,363 | $1,785 | ~$4,573 | $2,363 | 2025 | $1,475 | 2021 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$6,083,963 | ~$524,919 | ~0.7000% | ~$3,674 | +178.2% |
| 2027 | ~$16,927,346 | ~$577,411 | ~0.7062% | ~$4,077 | +674.1% |
| 2028 | ~$47,096,779 | ~$635,152 | ~0.7123% | ~$4,524 | +2053.8% |
| 2029 | ~$131,036,874 | ~$698,667 | ~0.7185% | ~$5,020 | +5892.5% |
| 2030 | ~$364,582,523 | ~$768,534 | ~0.7247% | ~$5,569 | +16572.9% |
| 2026 | ~$6,040,229 | ~$524,919 | ~0.6938% | ~$3,642 | +176.2% |
| 2027 | ~$16,684,863 | ~$577,411 | ~0.6938% | ~$4,006 | +663.0% |
| 2028 | ~$46,088,421 | ~$635,152 | ~0.6938% | ~$4,407 | +2007.7% |
| 2029 | ~$127,309,563 | ~$698,667 | ~0.6938% | ~$4,848 | +5722.1% |
| 2030 | ~$351,665,874 | ~$768,534 | ~0.6938% | ~$5,332 | +15982.2% |
| 2026 | ~$6,127,696 | ~$524,919 | ~0.7031% | ~$3,691 | +180.2% |
| 2027 | ~$17,171,580 | ~$577,411 | ~0.7123% | ~$4,113 | +685.3% |
| 2028 | ~$48,119,738 | ~$635,152 | ~0.7216% | ~$4,583 | +2100.6% |
| 2029 | ~$134,845,437 | ~$698,667 | ~0.7308% | ~$5,106 | +6066.7% |
| 2030 | ~$377,875,957 | ~$768,534 | ~0.7401% | ~$5,688 | +17180.8% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $2,186,675 places it in the top 25% for Agricultural properties in Travis County (7602 comparable) — 4× the county median of $597,708. Agricultural here is the broad TCAD category — every agricultural property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $2,186,675 | $207,536 | $597,708 | $1,442,275 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2024 | $120,270 | $217,016 | $597,296 | $1,446,593 | ↓ Bottom 25% | +23.7% |
| 2023 | $111,679 | $167,963 | $453,916 | $1,078,522 | ↓ Bottom 25% | +0.0% |
| 2022 | $101,526 | $180,794 | $446,888 | $1,009,883 | ↓ Bottom 25% | +46.1% |
| 2021 | $81,888 | $33,611 | $103,166 | $247,000 | ↓ Below median | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.