LUCKY HIT RD TX 78641
| Owner | JORDAN RAY A |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0525670108 |
| Short ID | 354738 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | C1 Vacant Lot |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | 580,655 SF |
| Acres | 13.330 |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | ABS 510 SUR 16 MORROW M G ACR 13.330 |
| Neighborhood | T2690 |
| Land | $653,932 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $653,932 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $653,932 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $653,932 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) | — |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $653,932 |
| Taxable Value | $653,932 |
|---|
| Total Due | $14,167.97 |
|---|---|
| First Delinquent | — |
Appreciation: Market value has risen +425.6% from $124,422 (2021) to $653,932 (2025), a CAGR of 51.4% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2021→2025), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Land/Vacant parcel countywide rose +487.2%, so this parcel has lagged the broader land/vacant market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 6 taxing entities is 1.8841% in 2025 (+0.0525% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $12,321. Leander ISD is the largest single contributor, at 57.7% of the total 2025 levy.
Asset Class: Land / Vacant. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($653,932 land vs $0 improvements), about $1/SF of land. With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $653,932, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Land/Vacant property in Travis County — county median $85,028 (P25 $24,862 / P75 $363,420, n=35,611). Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +51.4% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $5,203,875 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $83,292. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
Delinquent Taxes: $14,167.97 in unpaid taxes . These become a lien on the property and transfer to the buyer at closing unless negotiated otherwise.
| Entity | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | Rate Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travis County | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +205 |
| Travis Central Health | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +66 |
| Travis County ESD # 07 | 0.0910% | 0.1000% | +59 |
| Austin Community College | 0.1013% | 0.1034% | +14 |
| Leander ISD | 1.0869% | 1.0869% | +0 |
| Travis County ESD # 01 | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | +0 |
Market value changed by 350% in 2022, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
This parcel has unpaid taxes on record. Delinquent taxes are a lien on the property and transfer to the buyer at closing unless negotiated otherwise.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILE Leander ISD | 1.3370% | 1.2746% | 1.1087% | 1.0869% | 1.0869% | +0.0000% | $7,107.59 | $0.59 | $7,107.00 |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $2,457.77 | $0.20 | $2,457.57 |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $771.79 | $0.06 | $771.73 |
| ACT Austin Community College | 0.1048% | 0.0987% | 0.0986% | 0.1013% | 0.1034% | +0.0021% | $676.17 | $0.05 | $676.12 |
| E01 Travis County ESD # 01 | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | 0.1000% | +0.0000% | $653.93 | $0.05 | $653.88 |
| E07 Travis County ESD # 07 | 0.1000% | 0.0784% | 0.0842% | 0.0910% | 0.1000% | +0.0090% | $653.72 | $0.05 | $653.67 |
| Combined Rate | 2.1110% | 1.9686% | 1.7968% | 1.8316% | 1.8841% | +0.0525% | $12,320.97 | $1.00 | $12,319.97 |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $399,900 | $653,932 | -38.8% |
| Assessed Value | $399,900 | $653,932 | -38.8% |
| Land Value | $399,900 | $653,932 | -38.8% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $399,900 | $653,932 | -38.8% |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$7,535
Estimated
|
$12,321 | ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $399,900 | $399,900 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Taxable Value | $399,900 | $399,900 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $399,900 | $399,900 | — | — | $399,900 | $399,900 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $653,932 | $653,932 | — | — | $653,932 | $653,932 | $12,321 | Verified |
| 2024 | $— | — | — | — | $746,653 | $— | $13,676 | Verified |
| 2023 | $— | — | — | — | $746,653 | $— | $13,416 | Verified |
| 2022 | $— | — | — | — | $559,940 | $— | $11,023 | Verified |
| 2021 | $124,422 | — | — | — | $124,422 | $— | $2,502 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -38.8% | -38.8% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | -12.4% | -12.4% | ~100% | 1.8800% | Verified |
| 2024 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | 1.8300% | Verified |
| 2023 | +33.3% | +33.3% | ~100% | 1.8000% | Verified |
| 2022 | +350.0% ! | +350.0% | ~100% | 1.9700% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | 2.0100% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +425.6% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -38.8% | +193.4% | +70.6% | +425.6% | 2025 | -38.8% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 100.0% | 100.0% | — | 100.0% | 2021 | 100.0% | 2021 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 1.8800% | 1.8800% | — | 1.8800% | 2025 | 1.8800% | 2025 |
| Tax Amount | $12,321 | $7,412 | ~$44,760 | $12,321 | 2025 | $2,502 | 2021 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$990,128 | ~$990,128 | ~1.8274% | ~$18,094 | +51.4% |
| 2027 | ~$1,499,168 | ~$1,499,168 | ~1.7707% | ~$26,546 | +129.3% |
| 2028 | ~$2,269,913 | ~$2,269,913 | ~1.7140% | ~$38,906 | +247.1% |
| 2029 | ~$3,436,909 | ~$3,436,909 | ~1.6573% | ~$56,960 | +425.6% |
| 2030 | ~$5,203,875 | ~$5,203,875 | ~1.6006% | ~$83,292 | +695.8% |
| 2026 | ~$977,050 | ~$977,050 | ~1.8841% | ~$18,409 | +49.4% |
| 2027 | ~$1,459,824 | ~$1,459,824 | ~1.8841% | ~$27,505 | +123.2% |
| 2028 | ~$2,181,146 | ~$2,181,146 | ~1.8841% | ~$41,096 | +233.5% |
| 2029 | ~$3,258,882 | ~$3,258,882 | ~1.8841% | ~$61,402 | +398.4% |
| 2030 | ~$4,869,145 | ~$4,869,145 | ~1.8841% | ~$91,741 | +644.6% |
| 2026 | ~$1,003,207 | ~$1,003,207 | ~1.7991% | ~$18,048 | +53.4% |
| 2027 | ~$1,539,035 | ~$1,539,035 | ~1.7140% | ~$26,379 | +135.4% |
| 2028 | ~$2,361,056 | ~$2,361,056 | ~1.6289% | ~$38,460 | +261.1% |
| 2029 | ~$3,622,132 | ~$3,622,132 | ~1.5439% | ~$55,921 | +453.9% |
| 2030 | ~$5,556,766 | ~$5,556,766 | ~1.4588% | ~$81,062 | +749.7% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $653,932 places it in the top 25% for Land/Vacant properties in Travis County (35611 comparable) — 8× the county median of $85,028. Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $653,932 | $24,862 | $85,028 | $363,420 | ↑ Top 25% | +2.1% |
| 2024 | — | $23,000 | $66,000 | $330,000 | — | +0.0% |
| 2023 | — | $25,000 | $71,500 | $271,439 | — | +0.0% |
| 2022 | — | $15,000 | $55,000 | $180,463 | — | +100.0% |
| 2021 | $124,422 | $6,000 | $14,480 | $80,000 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.