2809 S PACE BEND RD TX 78669
| Owner | LUCKY STARS PROTECTION TRUST |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0550070201 |
| Short ID | 356270 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | C1 Vacant Lot |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | 4,288 SF |
| Land SF | 899,514 SF |
| Acres | 20.650 |
| Year Built | 1995 |
| Legal | .65 AC OF LOT 14 PALEFACE PARK PHS I SEC B (NON-HOMESTEAD) |
| Neighborhood | Q4003 |
| Land | $1,717,941 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $1,717,941 |
| Improvement | $822,873 |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | $822,873 |
| Market | $2,540,814 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $2,540,814 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$1,165,237 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $1,375,577 |
| Exemptions (−) (HS,OV65) | −$405,442 |
|---|---|
| Taxable Value | $970,135 |
Appreciation: Market value has risen +161.3% from $972,465 (2021) to $2,540,814 (2025), a CAGR of 27.1% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2022→2023), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Land/Vacant parcel countywide rose +487.2%, so this parcel has lagged the broader land/vacant market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 5 taxing entities is 1.7041% in 2025 (+0.0281% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $16,532. Lake Travis ISD is the largest single contributor, at 46.7% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($1,375,577) is $1,165,237 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Land / Vacant. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 68% of market value ($1,717,941 land vs $822,873 improvements), about $2/SF of land. Land and improvements both carry meaningful weight; value is balanced between the structure and its site.
Submarket Position: At $2,540,814, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Land/Vacant property in Travis County — county median $85,028 (P25 $24,862 / P75 $363,420, n=35,611). Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +27.1% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $8,440,079 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $32,762. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
12 components · show ▾hide ▴
| Code | Description | SF | In Gross |
|---|---|---|---|
| 095 | HVAC RESIDENTIAL | 4,192 SF | ✗ |
| 031 | GARAGE DET 1ST F | 2,827 SF | ✓ |
| 2ND | 2nd Floor | 2,191 SF | ✓ |
| 1ST | 1st Floor | 1,779 SF | ✓ |
| 041 | GARAGE ATT 1ST F | 572 SF | ✓ |
| 011 | PORCH OPEN 1ST F | 356 SF | ✗ |
| 3RD | 3rd Floor | 318 SF | ✓ |
| 512 | DECK UNCOVRED | 290 SF | ✗ |
| 012 | PORCH OPEN 2ND F | 284 SF | ✗ |
| 251 | BATHROOM | 4 SF | ✓ |
| 522 | FIREPLACE | 1 SF | ✓ |
| 413 | STAIRWAY EXT | 1 SF | ✓ |
| Unit (prop_id) | Owner | Address | Market Value | Assessed Value | Taxable Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 356270 | SEAY DANIEL & CHERYL | 2809 PACE BEND RD SPICEWOOD 78669 | $1,840,882 | $1,442,223 | $1,008,509 |
| 467273 | SEAY DANIEL & CHERYL | 2809 PACE BEND RD 78669 | $65,000 | $64,465 | $64,465 |
Market value changed by 95% in 2022, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILT Lake Travis ISD | 1.2301% | 1.2121% | 1.0741% | 1.0656% | 1.0397% | -0.0259% | $6,146.35 | $6,146.35 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $3,605.83 | $3,605.83 | Paid |
| E08 Travis County ESD # 08 | 0.0970% | 0.0790% | 0.0810% | 0.0830% | 0.0930% | +0.0100% | $1,269.50 | $1,269.50 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $1,082.75 | $1,082.75 | Paid |
| E16 Travis County ESD # 16 | 0.0880% | 0.0740% | 0.0730% | 0.0750% | 0.0775% | +0.0025% | $1,057.74 | $1,057.74 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 1.8843% | 1.7820% | 1.6334% | 1.6760% | 1.7041% | +0.0281% | $13,162.17 | $13,162.17 | Paid |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $1,905,882 | $2,540,814 | -25.0% |
| Assessed Value | $1,506,688 | $1,375,577 | +9.5% |
| Land Value | $1,190,000 | $1,717,941 | -30.7% |
| Improvement Value | $715,882 | $822,873 | -13.0% |
| Taxable Value | $1,072,974 | $970,135 | +10.6% |
| Exemptions | HS,OV65 | HS,OV65 | |
| HS Cap Loss | -$399,194 | — | |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$18,284
Estimated
|
~$13,162
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $1,972,650 | $1,905,882 | -66,768 (-3.4%) |
| Taxable Value | $1,075,023 | $1,072,974 | -2,049 (-0.2%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1,905,882 | $1,190,000 | $715,882 | −$399,194 | $1,506,688 | $1,072,974 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $2,540,814 | $1,717,941 | $822,873 | −$1,165,237 | $1,375,577 | $970,135 | ~$13,162 | Partial |
| 2024 | $2,368,747 | — | — | −$650,806 | $1,717,941 | $— | $13,203 | Verified |
| 2023 | $2,316,471 | — | — | −$598,530 | $1,717,941 | $— | $12,364 | Verified |
| 2022 | $1,346,790 | — | — | — | $1,706,662 ! | $— | $12,742 | Verified |
| 2021 | $972,465 | — | — | −$456,218 | $516,247 | $— | $12,306 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +0.0% | +0.0% | 99.2% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +0.0% | -0.8% | 99.2% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | 0.5600% | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | 0.4900% | Verified |
| 2022 | -95.2% ! | -92.7% | ~100% | 0.5400% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | 66.5% | 1.2700% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): -95.2% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -25.0% | +19.0% | +35.6% | +72.0% | 2023 | -25.0% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 79.1% | 76.6% | — | 126.7% | 2022 | 53.1% | 2021 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 1.4100% | 1.4100% | — | 1.4100% | 2025 | 1.4100% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$13,162 | $12,755 | ~$28,829 | $13,203 | 2024 | $12,306 | 2021 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$3,230,335 | ~$1,513,135 | ~1.6590% | ~$25,103 | +27.1% |
| 2027 | ~$4,106,977 | ~$1,664,448 | ~1.6140% | ~$26,864 | +61.6% |
| 2028 | ~$5,221,521 | ~$1,830,893 | ~1.5689% | ~$28,726 | +105.5% |
| 2029 | ~$6,638,528 | ~$2,013,982 | ~1.5239% | ~$30,691 | +161.3% |
| 2030 | ~$8,440,079 | ~$2,215,381 | ~1.4788% | ~$32,762 | +232.2% |
| 2026 | ~$3,179,519 | ~$1,513,135 | ~1.7041% | ~$25,785 | +25.1% |
| 2027 | ~$3,978,780 | ~$1,664,448 | ~1.7041% | ~$28,364 | +56.6% |
| 2028 | ~$4,978,959 | ~$1,830,893 | ~1.7041% | ~$31,200 | +96.0% |
| 2029 | ~$6,230,560 | ~$2,013,982 | ~1.7041% | ~$34,320 | +145.2% |
| 2030 | ~$7,796,786 | ~$2,215,381 | ~1.7041% | ~$37,752 | +206.9% |
| 2026 | ~$3,281,152 | ~$1,513,135 | ~1.6365% | ~$24,763 | +29.1% |
| 2027 | ~$4,237,207 | ~$1,664,448 | ~1.5689% | ~$26,114 | +66.8% |
| 2028 | ~$5,471,837 | ~$1,830,893 | ~1.5014% | ~$27,488 | +115.4% |
| 2029 | ~$7,066,210 | ~$2,013,982 | ~1.4338% | ~$28,876 | +178.1% |
| 2030 | ~$9,125,149 | ~$2,215,381 | ~1.3662% | ~$30,267 | +259.1% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $2,540,814 places it in the top 25% for Land/Vacant properties in Travis County (35611 comparable) — 30× the county median of $85,028. Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $2,540,814 | $24,862 | $85,028 | $363,420 | ↑ Top 25% | +2.1% |
| 2024 | $2,368,747 | $23,000 | $66,000 | $330,000 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2023 | $2,316,471 | $25,000 | $71,500 | $271,439 | ↑ Top 25% | +0.0% |
| 2022 | $1,346,790 | $15,000 | $55,000 | $180,463 | ↑ Top 25% | +100.0% |
| 2021 | $972,465 | $6,000 | $14,480 | $80,000 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.