PEDERNALES CLIFF TRL TX 78669
| Owner | MICHEL ROBERT L & DEBORAH J LU |
|---|---|
| Parcel ID | 0562070115 |
| Short ID | 356926 |
| Type | Real |
| Use Code | C1 Vacant Lot |
| Valuation | Cost |
| Improvement SF | — |
| Land SF | — |
| Acres | — |
| Year Built | — |
| Legal | LOT 7 PEDERNALES SUBD MH S#3K9JS8557 |
| Neighborhood | Q08WF |
| Land | $390,000 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Land Market | Not Available |
| Total Land | $390,000 |
| Improvement | — |
|---|---|
| Total Improvement | — |
| Market | $390,000 |
|---|---|
| Special Use Exclusion (−) | Not Available |
| Appraised | $390,000 |
| Value Limitation Adjustment (−) (homestead cap) | −$53,040 |
| Net Appraised (assessed) | $336,960 |
| Taxable Value | $336,960 |
|---|
Appreciation: Market value has risen +212.5% from $124,800 (2021) to $390,000 (2025), a CAGR of 33.0% over 4 years. This is strong appreciation — well above typical inflation. Most of this growth came in a single year (2021→2025), not a steady climb — worth checking what drove that reappraisal rather than assuming a smooth trend. Over the same span, the median Land/Vacant parcel countywide rose +487.2%, so this parcel has lagged the broader land/vacant market over the same period.
Tax Burden: The combined rate across 5 taxing entities is 1.7041% in 2025 (+0.0281% vs 2024 — rates increased ). At the current taxable value, estimated annual taxes are $5,742. Lake Travis ISD is the largest single contributor, at 61.0% of the total 2025 levy.
Assessment Gap: Assessed value ($336,960) is $53,040 below market value, suggesting potential for an upward assessment in future years.
Asset Class: Land / Vacant. This is valued using the cost approach, tied more to replacement cost and physical condition than to income performance.
Value Composition: Land carries 100% of market value ($390,000 land vs $0 improvements). With value concentrated in the land, this reads as a land-dominated asset — the classic higher-and-best-use / redevelopment signal. Underwrite the dirt, not the building.
Submarket Position: At $390,000, this parcel sits in the top quartile (≥75th percentile) of Land/Vacant property in Travis County — county median $85,028 (P25 $24,862 / P75 $363,420, n=35,611). Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. See the Peer Set and the Where This Property Stands benchmark below, which narrows to this property's actual use code, for parcel-level comparables.
Forward Outlook: Holding the +33.0% Base-scenario CAGR (Based on 2021–2025 certified trend, projected forward from 2025), the model projects market value near $1,620,418 by 2030, with an estimated annual tax burden around $23,963. Estimated Forward figures are model projections, not certified — see the 6-Year Projection section for the low/base/high bands.
No delinquent taxes on record.
Market value changed by 88% in 2022, flagged as unusually large. Verify against comparable sales before using this value in underwriting.
| Entity | 2021 Rate | 2022 Rate | 2023 Rate | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | YoY (2024→25) | Amt Due | Amt Paid | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILT Lake Travis ISD | 1.2301% | 1.2121% | 1.0741% | 1.0656% | 1.0397% | -0.0259% | $3,503.37 | $3,503.37 | Paid |
| TCO Travis County | 0.3574% | 0.3182% | 0.3047% | 0.3444% | 0.3758% | +0.0314% | $1,266.45 | $1,266.45 | Paid |
| THD Travis Central Health | 0.1118% | 0.0987% | 0.1007% | 0.1080% | 0.1180% | +0.0101% | $397.69 | $397.69 | Paid |
| E08 Travis County ESD # 08 | 0.0970% | 0.0790% | 0.0810% | 0.0830% | 0.0930% | +0.0100% | $313.42 | $313.42 | Paid |
| E16 Travis County ESD # 16 | 0.0880% | 0.0740% | 0.0730% | 0.0750% | 0.0775% | +0.0025% | $261.14 | $261.14 | Paid |
| Combined Rate | 1.8843% | 1.7820% | 1.6334% | 1.6760% | 1.7041% | +0.0281% | $5,742.07 | $5,742.07 | Paid |
| 2026 Certified Certified | 2025 Certified Certified | Change 2025→2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $195,000 | $390,000 | -50.0% |
| Assessed Value | $195,000 | $336,960 | -42.1% |
| Land Value | $195,000 | $390,000 | -50.0% |
| Improvement Value | — | — | — |
| Taxable Value | $195,000 | $336,960 | -42.1% |
| Total Tax 2026 = estimate |
~$3,323
Estimated
|
~$5,742
Partial
|
ⓘ |
| 2026 Preliminary Preliminary | 2026 Certified Certified | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value | $195,000 | $195,000 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Taxable Value | $195,000 | $195,000 | +0 (+0.0%) |
| Year | Market Value | Land Value | Imprv Value | Value Limitation Adj (−) | Net Appraised (Assessed) | Taxable Value | Total Tax | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $195,000 | $195,000 | — | — | $195,000 | $195,000 | Not yet — post-cert | Certified — no billing yet |
| 2025 | $390,000 | $390,000 | — | −$53,040 | $336,960 | $336,960 | ~$5,742 | Partial |
| 2024 | $— | — | — | — | $390,000 | $— | $4,706 | Verified |
| 2023 | $— | — | — | — | $234,000 | $— | $3,822 | Verified |
| 2022 | $— | — | — | — | $234,000 | $— | $4,170 | Verified |
| 2021 | $124,800 | — | — | — | $124,800 | $— | $2,352 | Verified |
| Year | MktVal YoY | Assessed YoY | Asmt Ratio | Eff. Tax Rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -50.0% | -42.1% | ~100% | Not available | Partial |
| 2025 | +0.0% | +20.0% | 86.4% | Not available | Partial |
| 2024 | +66.7% | +20.0% | 72.0% | 1.2100% | Verified |
| 2023 | +0.0% | +0.0% | ~100% | 1.6300% | Verified |
| 2022 | +87.5% ! | +87.5% | ~100% | 1.7800% | Verified |
| 2021 | base year | — | ~100% | 1.8800% | Verified |
| Cumulative market value growth (earliest valid year → 2025): +212.5% | |||||
| 12 Month | Hist. Avg | Forecast Avg | Peak | When | Trough | When | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Value Growth | -50.0% | +81.2% | +59.5% | +212.5% | 2025 | -50.0% | 2026 |
| Assessment Ratio | 100.0% | 95.5% | — | 100.0% | 2021 | 86.4% | 2025 |
| Effective Tax Rate (2025) | 1.4700% | 1.4700% | — | 1.4700% | 2025 | 1.4700% | 2025 |
|
Tax Amount
⚑ 2025 total is a derived or partial figure, not independently confirmed |
$5,742 | $4,047 | ~$15,329 | $5,742 | 2025 | $2,352 | 2021 |
| Year | ~Mkt Value | ~Assessed | ~Rate | ~Ann. Tax | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~$518,534 | ~$518,534 | ~1.6590% | ~$8,603 | +33.0% |
| 2027 | ~$689,429 | ~$689,429 | ~1.6140% | ~$11,127 | +76.8% |
| 2028 | ~$916,647 | ~$916,647 | ~1.5689% | ~$14,382 | +135.0% |
| 2029 | ~$1,218,750 | ~$1,218,750 | ~1.5239% | ~$18,572 | +212.5% |
| 2030 | ~$1,620,418 | ~$1,620,418 | ~1.4788% | ~$23,963 | +315.5% |
| 2026 | ~$510,734 | ~$510,734 | ~1.7041% | ~$8,703 | +31.0% |
| 2027 | ~$668,844 | ~$668,844 | ~1.7041% | ~$11,398 | +71.5% |
| 2028 | ~$875,900 | ~$875,900 | ~1.7041% | ~$14,926 | +124.6% |
| 2029 | ~$1,147,056 | ~$1,147,056 | ~1.7041% | ~$19,547 | +194.1% |
| 2030 | ~$1,502,155 | ~$1,502,155 | ~1.7041% | ~$25,598 | +285.2% |
| 2026 | ~$526,334 | ~$526,334 | ~1.6365% | ~$8,614 | +35.0% |
| 2027 | ~$710,326 | ~$710,326 | ~1.5689% | ~$11,145 | +82.1% |
| 2028 | ~$958,638 | ~$958,638 | ~1.5014% | ~$14,393 | +145.8% |
| 2029 | ~$1,293,753 | ~$1,293,753 | ~1.4338% | ~$18,550 | +231.7% |
| 2030 | ~$1,746,015 | ~$1,746,015 | ~1.3662% | ~$23,854 | +347.7% |
In 2025, this property's market value of $390,000 places it in the top 25% for Land/Vacant properties in Travis County (35611 comparable) — 5× the county median of $85,028. Land/Vacant here is the broad TCAD category — every land/vacant property countywide, any size or use — not a use-code-specific peer group. Use the Use Code filter above to narrow to this property's actual type.
| Year | This Property | Bottom 25% | Median | Top 25% | Position | Group YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $390,000 | $24,862 | $85,028 | $363,420 | ↑ Top 25% | +2.1% |
| 2024 | — | $23,000 | $66,000 | $330,000 | — | +0.0% |
| 2023 | — | $25,000 | $71,500 | $271,439 | — | +0.0% |
| 2022 | — | $15,000 | $55,000 | $180,463 | — | +100.0% |
| 2021 | $124,800 | $6,000 | $14,480 | $80,000 | ↑ Top 25% | base yr |
Estimate only. The appraisal district sets value as of Jan 1 (not at sale price). A sale is strong evidence of market value and is typically reflected in the next Jan 1 valuation. Taxing units set rates annually. Modeled from government data — not a legal or tax opinion.